A popular trader known for several accurate crypto market calls is outlining his Bitcoin forecast after the BTC halving last week.

The pseudonymous analyst known as Dave the Wave shares a chart with his 147,000 followers on the social media platform X that indicates Bitcoin could reach $169,500 in the last quarter of 2024.

According to Dave the Wave, Bitcoin has consistently printed diminishing returns after every bull market since 2012. For the current cycle, the trader expects BTC to generate gains of over 626% from the bottom – a significant reduction from the 1,275% gains witnessed during the 2020 cycle.

“The near only constant is reduced return.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $66,938, up over 3.5% in the past day.

Dave the Wave analyzes Bitcoin’s possible path forward using the logarithmic growth curve (LGC), an investing model that aims to forecast BTC’s market cycle highs and lows while filtering out short-term volatility.

The analyst explains that Bitcoin hitting a fresh all-time high before the halving is not so out of the ordinary. According to Dave the Wave, the halving marks the midpoint of a bull market and he expects BTC to ignite a steep rally from this point toward the top of his LGC model.

“A lot is being made of the current Bitcoin halving being at the highest price as compared to previously.

But this is not so significant when you see that previous halvings were all pushing previous all-time highs…. with halving prices within the last month’s spike of the previous ‘cycle’ highs…

The takeaway from this thread of charts is that halvings have all been, more or less, recoveries of price… and marking something of a midway point toward the peaks.

Also, that the initial peak last time should be considered the macro top [momentum-wise] even though a nominal higher price was seen on the second peak.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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A recent analysis paints a rosy picture of Bitcoin’s future, even with a conservative growth projection. Taking to X, Michael Sullivan predicts that the world’s most valuable coin could reach a staggering $245,000 within just five years if it maintains a mere 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). 

Bitcoin Projections: From Conservative To Exponential Growth

The analysis explores various growth possibilities for Bitcoin. Assuming the coin’s growth rate significantly contracts in the coming years, growing at just 30% CAGR, Sullivan projects the coin to reach $245,000 by 2029. 

A decade later, it will be at $909,000; by 2039, each coin in circulation will be trading at a whopping $3.37 million. If, however, the CAGR rises to 40%, Bitcoin would be worth $10.3 million in 15 years and $1.9 million in 10 years.

Still, even at these mega valuations, Bitcoin has been soaring at unprecedented rates, outperforming all traditional finance assets since launching. To demonstrate, Bitcoin registered a CAGR of 73.7% over the past four years. 

Therefore, if this trend continues, Sullivan says BTC will smash above the $1 million level a year after halving in 2028. However, half a decade later, each coin will change hands at over $16.5 million. 

A look back at Bitcoin’s history makes it clear that the coin has been on a tear. Following this historical trend and making projections for the future, BTC could be far more valuable in the next five or ten years.

There Are No Guarantees, Crypto Is Dynamic

While these projections are undoubtedly exciting for Bitcoin holders, it’s crucial to remember that they are just projections. The crypto market, just like any other tradable asset, doesn’t move in straight lines. 

As an illustration, after peaking at nearly $70,000 in 2021, prices crashed to as low as $15,600 the following year. In 2017, BTC rose to around $20,000 before tanking to below $4,000 a year later in 2018. This volatility and the dynamic market, influenced by new circumstances, don’t guarantee these lofty projections.

Nonetheless, analysts remain optimistic of what lies ahead, especially after the historic Halving event on April 20. As traditional finance players join in, finding exposure in BTC through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), prices might rise, even breaking above the all-time highs of around $74,000.

Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.

Seasoned hedge fund manager Anthony Scaramucci thinks that Bitcoin’s (BTC) market cap will ultimately eclipse the $16 trillion valuation of gold.

In a new CNBC interview, the SkyBridge Capital founder says Bitcoin is a superior asset that’s never been witnessed in the last 5,000 years of human history.

According to Scaramucci, Bitcoin still has ways to go before catching up to gold’s $16 trillion market capitalization but thinks the distance would decrease over time as regulators give their stamps of approval to BTC.

“I think what got me past being a skeptic is the notion that this is immutable, it’s decentralized in a way that makes it very powerful. The network itself is scaling.

And if you think about the way we treat money in our society over the last 5,000 years, Bitcoin checks all of the boxes. The only box it doesn’t check is central bank manipulation, which I think makes it way more powerful. 

And so at a $1.4 trillion [market cap] could this trade to half the market capitalization of gold where gold is $16 trillion today? We believe it can. We actually think it’s going to go through the market capitalization of gold.

But if you’re making the point that the American owners in the ETF (exchange-traded fund) are not going to be enough to get it there, I disagree because over time the acceptance regulatorily is going to allow people to put it in their portfolio. A 1% position in these global portfolios takes it there.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,587.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any loses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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