The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says El Salvador’s decision to make Bitcoin (BTC) legal tender poses potential risks that must be assessed.
This week El Salvador became the first country in the world to treat the benchmark cryptocurrency as a legal payment instrument, approving a new law that requires businesses to accept Bitcoin in exchange for goods and services.
During a press briefing in Washington on Thursday, IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice reportedly outlined the potential implications of the crypto embrace.
“Adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender raises a number of macroeconomic, financial and legal issues that require very careful analysis.
We are following developments closely, and we’ll continue our consultations with the authorities.”
El Salvador is currently in talks with the IMF about a potential credit program. Reuters reports that an IMF team is meeting President Nayib Bukele to discuss the Bitcoin law.
The newly approved bill places Bitcoin on equal footing with the US dollar, which El Salvador adopted as its official currency in 2001.
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Digital assets manager CoinShares says investors are pouring millions of dollars into Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Cardano (ADA) and other crypto assets.
In a weekly report from June 7th, CoinShares breaks down where investor money is flowing, showing that Ethereum (ETH) is the altcoin of choice for buyers, capturing inflows of $33 million.
“Digital asset investment products saw outflows totaling $94 million last week. Despite the net outflows, we believe it implies an early turn in sentiment since May, where most product providers were seeing net outflows and sentiment was broadly negative.
Ethereum continues to see inflows into investment products totaling $33 million, remaining the altcoin of choice for investors.”
Aside from Ethereum, XRP, Cardano and multi-asset products are the most popular investments, attracting inflows of $7 million, $4.5 million and $2.7 million, respectively.
The report also shows that heavy negative sentiment is focused on Bitcoin as it saw outflows of $141 million, the largest single week of outflows on record. Data indicates that investors remain cautious after Bitcoin’s recent collapse from its all-time high of $63,500 down to $30,000.
“Digital asset investment product trading volumes highlight investors remain cautious in Bitcoin with weekly volumes having fallen 62% compared to last month. This has also been reflected in the broader Bitcoin ecosystem where volumes on trusted exchanges have fallen 50%.”
Bitcoin remains the largest CoinShares holding with over $30 billion in assets under management, followed by Ethereum with $12.32 billion.
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The co-founder and chairman of crypto-focused hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, Kyle Davies, believes that there will not be a repeat of the 2017 bull market in the current market cycle.
In a new video, Davies says that Bitcoin and altcoins are in a supercycle, while warning that the crypto markets will still see significant corrections.
“With a supercycle… there’s still volatility right. I mean especially for Bitcoin it’s a fixed-supply asset…
That doesn’t mean we go into a four-year bear [market]. It just means that we correct and okay… now we’ve corrected, now let’s keep going, right. There’s no more false selling beyond this basically is the thinking.”
The Three Arrows Capital chairman explains that the fall in the price of Bitcoin by nearly 50% from its all-time high recently was driven by negative news such as the crackdown on miners in China rather than traders being overleveraged.
“This pullback was harsh… It was not because we were over-leveraged…
It was pretty big news like China trying to actively shut down hash power, which they have started to do – not everywhere in the country. In Xinjiang, for example, like everyone’s shutting off their miners. Chinese miners are going to other locations to set up you know backups. Sichuan hasn’t happened yet, but may very well in the next 36 months.”
Davies adds that Three Arrows Capital benefited from the correction as the firm took a short position in Bitcoin and this is why the hedge fund is the most profitable entity on the FTX cryptocurrency exchange currently.
“Fact of the matter is we also did have a big Bitcoin hedge and we did make a lot of money on that and that’s why we’re you know… with the other basis traders they may be in the middle of the FTX leaderboard right now. That’s why we’re number one. Because we leaned into that market a little bit more.”
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Bitcoin (BTC) can still hit an average price of $288,000 in the next three years, confident analyst PlanB has said after BTC/USD shed 7% on June 12.
In a tweet on Saturday, the creator of the popular stock-to-flow Bitcoin price models cast aside doubts over the Bitcoin bull run continuing.
PlanB: Business as usual for BTC
Alongside a chart describing Bitcoin as “going for gold,” PlanB was characteristically cool about Bitcoin’s recent progress despite a failure to break out above $40,000.
As Cointelegraph reported, concerns from traders and external sources alike have been mounting over the past week, these centering on a possible deeper BTC price correction.
“$288K still in play,” PlanB retorted.
“It would really surprise me if bitcoin would not touch the black S2FX model line this phase. Regardless of current volatility, yellow green and blue dots will be (much) higher than red orange dots.”
BTC/USD 1-month price chart vs. months until halving events. Source: PlanB/ Twitter
Such “surprise” would provide a serious test for the model, which has so far charted Bitcoin’s growth with unique precision.
The $288,000 price tag refers to an average value called for by the Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset (S2FX) iteration, while a previous version requires a more modest $100,000 average. Both are based on the current halving cycle, a four-year period between block subsidy halvings due to end in April 2024.
Earlier, Cointelegraph noted that spot price deviation from S2F readings has reached levels which normally see a rebound and a new all-time high.
In additional comments, PlanB noted that 2021 really did fit with behavior from other all-time high years — 2013 and 2017 — further quashing suggestions that Bitcoin is facing serious problems.
“Deviation is not much different from 2013 (S2F ~10) or 2017 (S2F ~25), just the usual inertia after a halving,” he told Twitter users.
Bitcoin has a “bullish ace up its sleeve”
Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has added to the upbeat mood over the power of the halvings.
Related: Bitcoin price gains 6% as Bloomberg analyst favors $40K over $20K next
On Saturday, he described Bitcoin’s declining supply as a “bullish ace” for the largest cryptocurrency which can naturally boost price.
“Bitcoin $100,000 Has Bullish Ace Up Its Sleeve: Declining Supply — This year follows a cut in Bitcoin supply, making the price more likely to appreciate if past patterns hold,” he summarized.
Overview of Bitcoin price metrics vs. supply change. Source: Mike McGlone/ Twitter
His bullishness comes as Taproot, described as the most important Bitcoin network upgrade in four years, is locked in for activation by nodes.
Due in November, Taproot provides a host of improvements which will, among other things, make it cheaper to use some key features such as multisignature transactions.