A survey conducted by the creator of the Bitcoin (BTC) stock-to-flow (S2F) price model reveals that most investors no longer believe that the flagship cryptocurrency will hit $100,000 this year.

The S2F model, traditionally applied to commodities like gold and silver, predicts the performance of an asset based on the idea that the price increases as asset becomes more scarce.

Using the S2F model, PlanB originally forecasted that BTC will breach the $100,000 level by the end of 2021. S2FX, a variation of S2F, predicted that the top crypto will breach $288,000 between 2021 and 2024.

A poll, which PlanB himself issued to his followers, shows that 40.7% of crypto investors believe that Bitcoin will stay below the six digit-level before December, 2021.

Do you think #bitcoin will reach $500K, $288K (S2FX model), $100K (S2F model), or will BTC stay below $100K .. before December 2021?

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 21, 2021

The bearish sentiment arrives as the price of Bitcoin remains below $40,000 following its late-May crash.

The dip was, according to crypto expert Su Zhu of Three Arrows Capital, instigated in part by billionaire Elon Musk’s remarks regarding BTC’s alleged negative environmental impact and the continued crackdown of crypto mining in China.

A similar survey conducted by PlanB before the market crashed shows that the majority of responders believed Bitcoin would hit $100,000 this year just three months ago.

What a difference 3 months make!

41% now thinks bitcoin will stay below $100K in 2021 (invalidating S2F model) vs 16% in March (when BTC was $55K). pic.twitter.com/S9PKR8FSnb

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 22, 2021

PlanB says the recent performance of BTC is putting his S2F model to the test.

“Even for me it is always a bit uneasy when Bitcoin price is at the lower bound of the stock-to-flow model. Will it hold (like March, 2019 when I published S2F, or March, 2020 Covid, or Septempber, 2020 with BTC stuck at $10,000) and is this another buying opportunity? Or will S2F be invalidated?”

Despite the rocky price action, the crypto analyst remains bullish on Bitcoin. A chart he shared to his over 590,000 followers on Twitter shows that even in a worst-case scenario, BTC will hit $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December.

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Ethereum has briefly risen above $2,000 once again while bitcoin has overtaken $34,000 with stocks in green as dow rises 0.7% while the S&P 500 sees a gain of 0.56% as it reaches a new all time high of 4265.

Gold is somewhat stagnant instead after falling from above $1,900 to a stuck $1,780 where it has stayed for the past three days.

Interestingly the dollar strength index (DXY) is a bit up for the day as well to nearing 92, up from an 89 at the end of May.

The dollar has slightly given ground to CNY however from 6.49 to now one dollar buying 6.47 Chinese yuan.

The rise of eth therefore may be part of a general market movement for the day as the economy starts recovering and opening up.

Yet there are also eth specific factors, including the fact a fundamental change in eth’s supply and demand economics is now in its final stages of going live after the eip1559 testnet launched successfully.

Specification for The Merger is also completed on the eth2 side, showing devs are starting to ship code after years of work.

The China FUD is also kind of over as miners airlift asics to freedom, with little left now for China to ban or bully, so the worst may well be behind.

There’s also more general movements like cryptos becoming too complex and mature for Austrian or Chicago economics, so paving the way for crypto economics with ethereum’s cofounder Vitalik Buterin stating:

“Earlier on definitely [was following] some combination of Austrian and Chicago, but more Chicago. At this point I would say I’m not really following along any pre-existing school of thought and more charting my own course.

I have recently been focusing a lot on public goods and decentralized governance, and traditional economics doesn’t have especially good tools for that.

It has mathematical models, and things like quadratic funding follow cleanly from those models, but even that doesn’t deal with issues like people having very low incentives under low stakes, differences between different people’s levels of understanding of particular problems, and especially the problem of collusion.”

Then there’s also the deposit contract which has reached 5% of the total supply with 5,881,794 eth staked, worth close to $12 billion.

That’s a pretty significant sum locked up for quite some time while on the buy side we have Andreessen Horowitz launching a $2.2 billion crypto fund.

This guy has invested in a huge amount of crypto startups and is doubling down with more investments.

“The size of this fund speaks to the size of the opportunity before us: crypto is not only the future of finance but, as with the internet in the early days, is poised to transform all aspects of our lives,” Katie Haun and Chris Dixon, partners who run Andreessen’s cryptocurrency group, said in a blog post.

The sentiment might be beginning to slightly change therefore, but bitcoin is leading for now and no one has a clue what this raging bull will do.

• Bitcoin has continued to trade lower and some analysts are even calling $25,000 as the next level, so is this the time to buy the dip, hodl or cash out?
• Two experts have had their say on the current market, including why Bitcoin seems unable to break out, where the smart money is headed and what’s next for BTC.

Bitcoin is trading at $33,330 at press time, down by over 15 percent in the past seven days. This is enough to worry investors, but JPMorgan analysts believe that it’s only going to get worse soon. Institutional BTC products continue to see funds outflow, China is cracking down even harder, BTC just formed the death cross – overall, Bitcoin isn’t in the best position. So, is it time to cash out before it’s too late, or maybe HODL hard, or should you buy the dip?

Since hitting its all-time high just short of $65,000, Bitcoin has now lost close to half its value. In the past week, the crypto has ranged between a high of $40,600 and $29,300. Its trading volume has also taken a hit, noting a 46 percent drop in the past day to $33 billion.

With the price struggle has come heated debates among analysts, market leaders and even holders about what comes next.

According to one renowned analyst, this drop is not only normal for an asset as volatile as BTC, but also expected given how quickly it shot up in the first four months of the year.

Michaël van de Poppe, an analyst and trader from the Netherlands, with over 100,000 subscribers on his YouTube channel, told VICE, “Bitcoin has seen a run from $3,750 to $64,000 in a relatively short period of time, through which a corrective move was likely to happen.”

Is this the time to panic?

Van de Poppe admits that even he is surprised at just how big the BTC price drop has been. This drop has coincided with bearish news such as China’s crackdown, and become even bigger.

Mati Greenspan agrees, but according to him, it all depends on when you got into Bitcoin. Greenspan is the former senior market analyst at eToro. He told VICE:

It always depends on where you’re measuring from. f you’re measuring from the high, then yeah – this is pretty brutal. But anyone who’s been in the market for more than a few months should be in profit at this point.

So is this the time to panic? Not to Greenspan, who remarked, “There’s never any reason to panic, as long as you’ve investing responsibly. There’s the disclaimer: never invest more than you can afford to lose.”

Van de Poppe also believes that selling now would be the wrong move. In fact, he believes that this is the best time to double down and buy more – buying the dip as crypto investors call it.

The time to sell for an investor or swing trader, that’s way behind us. It’s time to hold, zoom out, maybe invest some more if you have the ability to do so, and focus on data.

Greenspan concurs. The economist, who served at eToro for over seven years, advised investors to be patient and not panic despite the bearish conditions.

The point of investing, in general, boils down to four simple words: buy low, sell high. So when you see prices come down like this, to me that’s an encouraging sign to increase activities and investment.