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3 Key Metrics That Hint Bitcoin Price Will Hit $100K Soon

Published

12 hours ago

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After crashing nearly 15% Bitcoin has spent nearly a week below $100K and BTC currently trades at $94,124. Despite the brutal crash and sideways movement when will Bitcoin price hit $100,000? This article explores three key on-chain metrics that suggest that BTC is preparing for a strong bounce.

In the previous article, CoinGape explore three reasons why Bitcoin price crash will end soon. This article explores why BTC should bounce soon and revisit the historic $100K level.

3 Key Metrics That Could Propel Bitcoin Price to $100K

According to Santiment, on-chain data provider, the Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator saw a spike to roughly 106K & 100K on December 19 and 20, respectively. This profit-taking suggests that investors panic sold. Hence, the chances of a further drop due to spike in selling pressure.

BTC NPLBTC NPL
BTC NPL

Further supporting this thesis is the 30-day MVRV (market value to realized value) ratio has dipped below zero and sits at -4.77%. Between 5% to 10% is where BTC formed a bottom in the past two months. The fact that BTC’s 30-day MVRV is sitting in the opportunity zone suggests that a reversal is likely in the next few days.

BTC price vs. 30-day MVRV BTC price vs. 30-day MVRV 
BTC price vs. 30-day MVRV

Lastly the supply distribution metrics show that whales accumulated 30,000 BTC since the ATH. These wallets that hold 100 to 1,000 BTC have shown resilience despite the short-term correction and hints that investors are bullish on the last few days of 2025.

BTC Whale Supply DistributionBTC Whale Supply Distribution
BTC Whale Supply Distribution

All in all, the outlook for Bitcoin price looks bullish and a potential drop here is highly unlikely. Even if there is a drop, it should stabilize around $90K. As mentioned in yesterday’s Bitcoin article, the drop is likely going to reverse soon and kickstart a consolidation or a reversal.

Furthermore, the quarter four is generally bullish according to historical price action, which adds credence to what technicals and on-chain metrics are showing. Therefore, the ongoing downtrend is unlikely to continue and a potential bounce could be coming up soon.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

The three metrics are: Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator, 30-day MVRV ratio, and supply distribution metrics showing whale accumulation.

The 30-day MVRV ratio has dipped below zero, indicating that a reversal is likely in the next few days, as it has formed a bottom in the past two months between 5% to 10%.

Whales accumulating 30,000 BTC since the ATH indicates investor bullishness and resilience despite the short-term correction, suggesting a potential bounce.

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Akash Girimath

Akash Girimath, an engineer by training, has developed a deep fascination with the complexities of cryptocurrency markets. As a senior reporter and analyst, he specializes in crypto analysis and contributes his expertise to notable platforms such as AMBCrypto and FXStreet. In addition to his analytical work, Akash actively trades cryptocurrencies and manages a small crypto fund for friends and family. His role involves providing insightful market analysis and keeping readers informed about the latest trends in the crypto world. Follow Him on Youtube , X and LInkedIn

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Exploring Six On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle

Published

4 days ago

on

December 21, 2024

By


With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Terminal Price has surpassed $185,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

Figure 2: Puell Multiple has climbed above 1.00.

View Live Chart 🔍

Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

Figure 3: MVRV-Z Score still considerably below where previous peaks have occurred.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

Figure 4: AASI indicated overheated conditions above $100,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

Figure 5: Large SOPR clusters of profit taking.

View Live Chart 🔍

One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

Figure 6: VDD is warm but not too hot.

View Live Chart 🔍

While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.



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Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Continues To Hold Steady Between $96,000 And $98,000

Published

4 days ago

on

December 20, 2024

By



Este artículo también está disponible en español.

The Bitcoin price has dropped below the $100,000 psychological level and is now holding between the $96,000 and $98,000 range. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez provided insights into why Bitcoin could be holding well within this range. 

Why The Bitcoin Price Is Holding Steady Between $96,000 And $98,000

In an X post, Ali Martinez noted that one of the most important support levels for the Bitcoin price is between $98,830 and $95,830, where 1.09 wallets bought over 1.16 million BTC. This explains why Bitcoin is holding steady between $96,000 and $98,000 as investors who bought between this level continue to provide huge support for the flagship crypto. 

As Martinez suggested, it is important for these holders to continue to hold steady as a wave of sell-offs could send the Bitcoin price tumbling even below $90,000. The flagship crypto dropped below $100,000 following the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s recent speech, in which he hinted at a hawkish stance from the US Central Bank. 

This sparked a massive wave of sell-offs, as a Hawkish Fed paints a bearish picture for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, despite the Bitcoin price drop below, most Bitcoin holders remain in profit, which is a positive for the flagship crypto. IntoTheBlock data shows that 86% of Bitcoin holders are in the money, 4% are out of the money, and 9% are at the money.

These Bitcoin holders still seem bullish on the leading crypto as they continue to accumulate more BTC. In an X post, Ali Martinez stated that so far in December, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, and this trend doesn’t seem to be slowing down. 

Bitcoin priceS
Source: X

Traders Anticipate A Bullish Reversal 

Ali Martinez suggested that crypto traders anticipate a bullish reversal for the Bitcoin price from its current level. This came as he revealed that traders on Binance nailed the top, with 62.17% shorting Bitcoin while it was trading at $108,000. Now, Martinez stated that sentiment has flipped, with 55.44% of these trading now longing dips below $96,000. 

Bitcoin price 2
Source: X

Meanwhile, it is crucial for the Bitcoin price to hold this $96,000, as Martinez warned that if BTC loses this support, it could drop below $90,000. The analyst stated that based on the Fibonacci level, if Bitcoin loses $96,000, the next point of focus becomes $90,000 and $85,000. Meanwhile, from a bullish perspective, crypto analyst Justin Bennett suggested that the $110,000 target is still in focus for the Bitcoin price.  

Bitcoin price 3
Source: X

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $97,000, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price drops to $93,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Exploring Five On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle

Published

5 days ago

on

December 20, 2024

By


With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Terminal Price has surpassed $185,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

Figure 2: Puell Multiple has climbed above 1.00.

View Live Chart 🔍

Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

Figure 3: MVRV-Z Score still considerably below where previous peaks have occurred.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

Figure 4: AASI indicated overheated conditions above $100,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

Figure 5: Large SOPR clusters of profit taking.

View Live Chart 🔍

One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

Figure 6: VDD is warm but not too hot.

View Live Chart 🔍

While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.



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