After reaching an all-time high above $100,000, the Bitcoin price has entered a multi-week downtrend. This correction has naturally raised questions about whether Bitcoin is still aligned with the 2017 bull cycle. Here we’ll analyze the data to assess how closely Bitcoin’s current price action correlates with previous bull markets, and what we can expect next for BTC.

Bitcoin Price Trends in 2025 vs. 2017 Bull Cycle

Bitcoin’s price trajectory since the cycle lows set during the 2022 bear market has shown remarkable similarities to the 2015–2017 cycle, the bull market that culminated in Bitcoin reaching $20,000 in December 2017. However, Bitcoin’s recent downtrend marks the first major divergence from the 2017 pattern. If Bitcoin were still tracking the 2017 cycle, it should have been rallying to new all-time highs over the past month, instead, Bitcoin has been moving sideways and declining, suggesting that the correlation may be weakening.

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Despite the recent divergence, the historical correlation between Bitcoin’s current cycle and the 2017 cycle remains surprisingly high. The correlation between the current cycle and the 2015–2017 cycle was around 92% earlier this year. The recent price divergence has reduced the correlation slightly to 91%, still an extremely high figure for financial markets.

How Bitcoin Market Behavior Echoes 2017 Cycle Patterns

The MVRV Ratio is a key indicator of investor behavior. It measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s current market price and the average cost basis of all BTC held on the network. When the MVRV ratio rises sharply, it indicates that investors are sitting on significant unrealized profits, a condition that often precedes market tops. When the ratio declines toward the realized price, it signals that Bitcoin is trading close to the average acquisition price of investors, often marking a bottoming phase.

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The recent decline in the MVRV ratio reflects Bitcoin’s correction from all-time highs, however, the MVRV ratio remains structurally similar to the 2017 cycle with an early bull market rally, followed by multiple sharp corrections, and as such, the correlation remains at 80%.

Bitcoin Price Correlation with 2017 Bull Cycle Data

One possible explanation for the recent divergence is the influence of data lag. For example, Bitcoin’s price action has shown a strong correlation with Global Liquidity, the total supply of money in major economies; however, historical analysis shows that changes in liquidity often take around 2 months to reflect in Bitcoin’s price action.

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By applying a 30-day lag to Bitcoin’s price action relative to the 2017 cycle, the correlation increases to 93%, which would be the highest recorded correlation between the two cycles. The lag-adjusted pattern suggests that Bitcoin could soon resume the 2017 trajectory, implying that a major rally could be on the horizon.

What 2017 Bull Cycle Signals Mean for Bitcoin Price Today

History may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Bitcoin’s current cycle may not deliver 2017-style exponential gains, but the underlying market psychology remains strikingly similar. If Bitcoin resumes its correlation with the lagging 2017 cycle, the historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin could soon recover from the current correction, and a sharp upward move could follow.

Explore live data, charts, indicators, and in-depth research to stay ahead of Bitcoin’s price action at Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.

Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.

When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.

Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K.
Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.

Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.

Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.

Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.

Cryptocurrencies price are up as traders anticipate pro-crypto remarks from US President Trump today, March 20. Bitcoin price rose to a two-week high of $87,000 before retreating to trade at around $85,250 at press time. XRP led the gains among the top ten altcoins with a 7% rise while Ethereum briefly reclaimed $2,000 before reversing to $1,990. As the crypto summit draws near will Trump’s announcements drive more gains for crypto prices? 

Will Trump Announce Zero Tax Gains During Crypto Summit? 

Speculation is rife that Trump could make a major announcement at the Blockworks Digital Assets Summit happening in New York. Crypto analyst JackTheRippler opined that the President will announce zero capital gains on USA crypto coins. Walter Bloomberg also noted that Trump would make a “major update” to his crypto strategy. 

If Trump imposes zero tax gains on cryptocurrencies, it will boost retail and institutional interest, causing massive price gains. This policy would also make the US a major crypto hub. 

Trump’s attendance at this Summit will also mark the first time that a sitting US President is attending a crypto conference. This is fuelling excitement among crypto investors, with Bitcoin price likely to hit $90,000. 

The Executive Director of the President’s Working Group on Digital Assets, Bo Hines, was among the speakers at the crypto summit earlier this week. In his remarks, he noted, 

“We are looking forward to working with our partners at Treasury, and the Secretary of Commerce in order to find those budget-neutral ways in which we can acquire more [Bitcoin]… We need as much as we can get.” 

If Trump provides clarity on how the US will acquire Bitcoin and announces a zero crypto tax policy for US-based coins, cryptocurrencies price will rebound and likely reclaim the $3 trillion market cap. 

Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction After Trump Speech 

Cryptocurrencies price could rebound after the summit as Trump’s pro-crypto remarks have always been met with a brief relief rally. For instance, earlier this month, BTC rose from around $85,000 to $93,000 within hours after Trump signed an executive order for a crypto reserve. 

However, with the market expectations already high, failure to make a major announcement could cause a resumption of bearish trends. This could push Bitcoin below $80,000 while Ethereum price may lose support at $1,800. 

Nevertheless, the total market cap shows that the market has been on a gradual rebound over the past week. If Trump’s remarks signal a bullish breakout, TOTAL could target its 100-day SMA of $3.18 trillion. 

If analysts are right and Trump withdraws capital gains on US crypto coins, altcoins like XRP and Cardano are likely to record a parabolic rally. This could see XRP price hit $3 within hours while the Cardano price forecast hints at a rally past $1. 

Therefore, it is likely that cryptocurrencies price will post gains after Trump’s speech during the Digital Assets Summit. However, this rally may be short-lived if traders rush to book profits.

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muthoni

Muthoni Mary is a seasoned crypto market analyst and writer with over three years of experience dissecting blockchain trends, price movements, and market dynamics. With a sharp eye for technical analysis and an in-depth understanding of on-chain metrics, she delivers insightful, data-driven content that helps investors navigate the fast-paced world of digital assets.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.