The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed the level Bitcoin would have to rise to if it has to reach the historical top zone in this pricing model.

Bitcoin Hasn’t Surpassed Last MVRV Pricing Band Yet

In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the extreme euphoria threshold of the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands. The MVRV Pricing Bands is a pricing model for the cryptocurrency that’s based on the MVRV Ratio.

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The “MVRV Ratio” is a popular on-chain indicator that keeps track of how the value held by the Bitcoin investors (that is, the market cap) compares against the value that they initially put in (the realized cap). When the metric is greater than 1, the investors are holding more value than their initial investment, meaning that they are in a state of net profit. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the market as a whole is underwater.

Historically, the holders being in too much profit has often signaled overheated conditions for Bitcoin, due to the fact that mass selloffs with the motive of profit-taking become probable in such conditions. Similarly, the dominance of loss has led to bottoms, as there aren’t many sellers left during these periods.

The MVRV Pricing Bands aim to capture this relationship. It defines certain price levels for the cryptocurrency that correspond to important levels in the MVRV Ratio.

Here is the chart for the model shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in these Bitcoin pricing bands over the last several years:

From the graph, it’s visible that the 0.8 pricing band, which is where the MVRV Ratio assumes a value equal to 0.8, has been around where bear market bottoms have formed for the asset. Right now, BTC is far above this level, situated at $33,100. The coin’s price is also at a significant distance from the 1.0 level of $41,300, which corresponds to the cost basis of the average address or investor on the network.

The pricing bands that BTC is currently trading under are the 2.4 and 3.2 levels, located at $99,300 and $132,400, respectively. The former of these has historically served as a signal that the bull market is getting heated.

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BTC can stay inside this zone for a while, but once the market cap surpasses the 3.2 level, it becomes very likely that some type of top is going to be hit soon.

The chart below illustrates just how rare it is for the asset to trade in the region above 3.2:

“BTC price has historically spent only ~5% of trading days above the 3.2 MVRV level,” notes the analytics firm. “This highlights how rare such peaks are and reinforces why it’s often considered an “extreme euphoria” zone.”

So far, Bitcoin hasn’t been able to surpass this line in the current cycle. If the past bull markets are anything to go by, the top would only occur above this level, which would imply more room still left for the asset to run in the current cycle. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the pattern would actually hold this time or not.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $93,400, down more than 3% over the last seven days.

Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Binance Exchange is in the spotlight as the trading platform that dominated Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) outflows in the past year. According to CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk, the trading platform set a new benchmark for exchange activity. 

The Binance Bitcoin and Ethereum Outflow Dominance

According to Crazzyblockk, crypto exchange Binance processed nearly 2 million Bitcoin and Ethereum outflow transactions in December 2024. Since 2018, the exchange has consistently led the market per Bitcoin and Ethereum outflow transaction counts. 

Binance Dominates Bitcoin and Ethereum Outflows in 2024

“In the last month of 2024, Binance processed nearly 2 million BTC and ETH outflow transactions, setting a new benchmark for exchange activity.” – By @Crazzyblockk

More details 👇https://t.co/2O2s440FYz pic.twitter.com/zYG0BasQcg

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 9, 2025

Despite the shift in the U.S. market per the emergence of crypto-based exchange-traded funds, CryptoQuant noted that Binance maintained its dominance. The trading firm led its rivals to process the highest monthly BTC and ETH outflow trades.

The analyst pointed out that the December 2 million outflow transaction count shows Binance’s deep liquidity. The record presents the exchange with robust infrastructure and a defined role as a core gateway for crypto trading withdrawals.

Binance achieved this milestone despite the impact of the departure of Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao as the CEO in 2023 

Exchanges Supporting Crypto Market

While Binance ranked as the biggest per Bitcoin and Ethereum outflow processing, exchanges generally played a vital role in the crypto market’s evolution last year.

Coinbase exchange, for instance, played a vital role as a major custodian for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF issuers. Beyond its role in the institutional market, Coinbase also played a key role in offering retail products through new token listings. Coingape reported recently that Coinbase listed MOG Coin, Moo Deng, and other retail-focused tokens.

Rivals like Binance have also stepped up their listing game to match support for other evolving assets beyond BTC and ETH.

Market Predictions For 2025 – Bitcoin and Ethereum In Focus

Bitcoin and Ethereum influence the market with a combined dominance of at least 68.8%. While CryptoQuant did not predict what outflow trends might accompany the assets this year, industry leaders gave some forecasts about both coins and their ecosystems.

Bitwise, for instance, predicted that Bitcoin and Ethereum prices would hit a new all-time high (ATH) this year. Specifically, Bitwise said BTC would hit $200,000 and Ethereum would hit $7,000 this year. 

Meanwhile, BTC has recorded multiple ATHs this bull cycle fueled by demand from Binance and other platforms. However, Ethereum has yet to break a similar record. Other asset managers like Galaxy Digital also issued optimistic forecasts for BTC and ETH this year.

Ultimately, the belief is that due to their dominance and correlation with altcoins, a growth in their price might create a ripple effect for other digital assets.

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Godfrey Benjamin

Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalists who relish writing about the real life applications of blockchain technology and innovations to drive general acceptance and worldwide integration of the emerging technology. His desires to educate people about cryptocurrencies inspires his contributions to renowned blockchain based media and sites. Benjamin Godfrey is a lover of sports and agriculture.

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Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.