Bitcoin

Analyst Says One Factor Could Be a Headwind for Bitcoin, Outlines ‘Line in the Sand’ BTC Must Overcome

Published

6 hours ago

January 16, 2025

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen is issuing a warning on Bitcoin (BTC) as the flagship digital asset hovers below $100,000.

In a new video, Cowen tells his 858,000 YouTube subscribers that a continued rise in the yield on the US Treasury 10-year will have a bearish impact on Bitcoin.

According to Cowen, Bitcoin could behave similarly to what happened in the second half of 2023 when the crypto king plunged below a range low at around $30,000 and stayed subdued for weeks.

“…watch the 10-year yield if it keeps going up it’s going to be a headwind for Bitcoin…

…what happened [in 2023] was Bitcoin went all the way up, it came back down but eventually it really dropped below $30,000 and stayed below $30,000 for a number of weeks. And because of that the market got weaker and weaker and weaker until it sold off and found demand down here [below $25,000].”

According to Cowen, Bitcoin could drop by up to 28% from the current level if its price action mirrors that of 2023.

“So if Bitcoin has to follow that [2023] blueprint, which is not even at the same time of the year when you would normally see something like that, but if it does because the 10-year yield just does not relent, then you would likely see Bitcoin spend some time around $88,000, $89,000 for a while before going back and testing maybe $70,000 right and then trying to find support there.”

The widely followed analyst further says that Bitcoin’s price action around the $100,000 level will likely determine the flagship crypto asset’s short-term trajectory.

“So I think $100,000 is going to be kind of the line in the sand… [if] Bitcoin gets rejected again [at $100,000] and it comes back down here and gets below $90,000 then this [2023] outcome is more likely where it just follows what the S&P [500 index] did and the Russell [2,000 index] did and gives back those post-election gains in the short term.”

Bitcoin is trading at $96,900 at time of writing.

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Bitcoin

Major Victory For Bitfinex: DOJ Declares $9 Billion In Stolen Bitcoin Should Be Returned

Published

12 hours ago

January 16, 2025

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The US Department of Justice (DOJ) has stated that around $9 billion in Bitcoin, taken from the crypto exchange Bitfinex in a 2016 hacking incident, ought to be returned to the exchange.

This claim arises from a legal document submitted by the DOJ, which indicated that there are no recognizable victims in this specific case within the existing legal structure.

Bitfinex To Potentially Reclaim Stolen Bitcoin

The court documents, submitted on Tuesday, explain that the recovery of the stolen Bitcoin—specifically 94,643 BTC, along with amounts from various hard forks—should be returned to Bitfinex.

The DOJ argued that under the Mandatory Victim Restitution Act (MVRA), there is no legal basis to classify Bitfinex or its account holders as victims of the specific offenses for which the defendants were convicted.

The defendants, Ilya Lichtenstein and Heather Morgan, were convicted of Money Laundering Conspiracy, but crucially, they were not charged with the initial hack that resulted in the theft of the Bitcoin.

According to the DOJ, their subsequent actions did not directly cause the losses incurred by Bitfinex. The legal definition of a “victim” as stated in the MVRA requires a direct and proximate harm resulting from the commission of a specific offense, which in this case reportedly does not apply.

Legal Challenges In Crypto Asset Recovery

The DOJ’s filing emphasizes that, while no mandatory restitution can be ordered under the current convictions, the court retains the authority to grant voluntary restitution.

This means that, as part of their plea agreements, the defendants have agreed to return the stolen assets to Bitfinex. The restitution order proposed by the DOJ would encompass all funds recovered from the Bitfinex Hack Wallet.

While this ruling marks a potential financial windfall for Bitfinex, it also opens the door for further legal complexities. The government is in the process of a third-party ancillary forfeiture proceeding to address other seized assets linked to the defendants’ laundering activities.

These additional assets, which were involved in complex laundering schemes, may not be categorized as specific property lost by Bitfinex and its account holders.

The 2016 Bitfinex hack, one of the largest in cryptocurrency history, has had lasting repercussions, leading to ongoing debates about regulatory standards and victim restitution in the digital asset space.

As this situation develops, the parties involved in the case will be focused on the court’s ultimate ruling about the return of the seized Bitcoin and its impact on the future of cryptocurrency regulation and restitution methods for future cases.

The DOJ’s efforts aim not only to address the financial losses experienced by Bitfinex but also to clarify the legal ramifications related to digital asset theft.

Bitcoin

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has managed to regain its bullish momentum with a 4% rise in the past 24 hours towards the $99,100 level.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

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Bitcoin

VanEck seeks SEC approval for Onchain Economy ETF

Published

17 hours ago

January 16, 2025

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Will the SEC approve VanEck’s entry into the growing digital asset investment space?

On Jan. 15, 2025, asset management company VanEck filed an application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the “Onchain Economy” exchange-traded fund. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, disclosed the filing in a now-deleted social media post, revealing the company’s ambitious plans to invest in the rapidly growing digital transformation sector.

Deleted a post on an ETF filing.
Details coming soon
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) January 15, 2025

The proposed ETF aims to allocate at least 80% of its assets to businesses and products within the digital asset ecosystem. These include software developers, mining firms, cryptocurrency exchanges, infrastructure providers, payment firms, and other crypto-focused companies collectively referred to as “Digital Transformation Companies.”

VanEck outlined a strategic selection process for these investments, emphasizing fundamental research, market trends, valuation, and each company’s role in the broader digital asset ecosystem. While the fund will not directly hold cryptocurrencies, it plans to invest in digital asset products such as commodity futures contracts.

VanEck’s application is part of a broader wave of activity in the ETF market, driven by speculation that the regulatory environment may become more favorable for cryptocurrencies under President Donald Trump’s administration. Bitwise Asset Management applied in November 2024 for its 10 Crypto Index Fund ETF, which tracks leading cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL).

In December last year, WisdomTree joined 21Shares, Canary Capital, and Bitwise in submitting applications for ETFs focused on specific digital assets like XRP (XRP). Grayscale Investments also petitioned the SEC to convert its existing Solana Trust into an ETF, while REX Financial launched the REX Crypto Equity Premium Income ETF, which employs a covered-call strategy to generate income from crypto-related stocks.

These developments reflect the financial sector’s growing interest in digital assets and the anticipation of regulatory clarity. As the SEC evaluates these applications, the industry is poised for a potential shift that could reshape institutional and retail access to cryptocurrency investments.

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Bitcoin

Expert Sees Bitcoin Dipping To $50K While Bullish Signs Persist

Published

20 hours ago

January 15, 2025

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

After rocketing up to the highs of $108,000 in December 2024, Bitcoin now has fallen to about $96,000. This has led to renewed debate among analysts as to what this means for the leading cryptocurrency. Some think that it may all be a warning, but others, such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, are still bullish long-term.

$50,000 The Worst-Case Scenario?

Recently, Tom Lee shared his opinions with CNBC during an interview as a response to the fears regarding Bitcoin’s latest retreat. He stated that corrections up to $70,000 or even down to $50,000 can happen. Corrections of this type, he continued, have become extremely frequent throughout Bitcoin’s history; hence long-term investors must consider them opportunities and not as problems.

It was with the mention of $50,000 that eyebrows were raised, but Lee’s confidence in Bitcoin’s strength remains unbroken. He said these corrections often prepares the stage for even stronger price recoveries, especially in a market as dynamic as crypto.

A Bold Prediction Amid Uncertainty

Lee predicted that the price of Bitcoin might reach $200,000-$250,000 by the end of 2025, simply because he is convinced that this cryptocurrency will eventually serve as an economic hedge against instability and increase in adoption rates among institutional investors.

Lee also says the current price point of $90,000 will be an ideal entry point for anyone thinking long term. His reasoning is that Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals remain strong, and the recent pullback hasn’t dented its broader growth narrative.

BTC is now trading at $96,602. Chart: TradingView

Inflation And Market Dynamics

Lee said that inflation fears are not yet critical, and temporary disruptions, such as natural disasters, can impact data. However, the cautious approach of the Federal Reserve to rate cuts gives room for optimism. A slower pace of inflation and strong earnings from major companies could boost risk assets, including Bitcoin, in the near term.

Investor Sentiment And What’s Next

After Lee’s comment, Bitcoin rebounded a little; it came back to about $96,400. The rebound shows that the market participants were comforted by his analysis.

The lesson for investors is obvious: volatility will probably interrupt Bitcoin’s road of development, but overall the long-term future seems bright. Forecasts for the market range from $50,000 to $250,000, thereby presenting both risk and possibility.

The balancing act between fear and optimism will ultimately shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the months to come.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

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