Cardano (ADA) has shown major structural developments as it re-enters a multi-year trading range. The recent price action suggests acceptance back within this long-term structure, with indicators pointing toward a potential move to the lower support region.

Cardano (ADA) has re-entered a significant trading range that has contained its price action for over three years. After a breakout in late 2024 that lacked volume strength, the asset has failed to sustain its highs and is now showing signs of weakness. For traders, this shift back into the range carries major implications for ADA’s medium- to long-term price trajectory.

Key points covered

• ADA has closed multiple candles back within a multi-year trading range, signaling true acceptance
• The 2024 breakout lacked volume confirmation, indicating a potential climactic top
• A move towards the lower support region is increasingly likely as ADA seeks true market value

After more than 912 days of trading within a well-defined range since 2022, ADA finally broke out in December 2024, setting a new high. However, this breakout lacked the critical component of follow-through volume. A sharp drop in volume immediately after the breakout signaled weakening momentum, suggesting a climactic top rather than a sustainable bullish trend.

Price action has since fallen back below the range high and closed multiple candles beneath it, a clear sign of acceptance back within the range. This is significant from a structural standpoint. Rather than consolidating above and building new support, ADA is now signaling a potential return to its value zone, likely toward the lower bound of the long-term range.

The volume profile reinforces this theory. The expansion to the December highs was not matched by sustained buyer interest. Instead, volume sharply tapered off, indicating that the breakout may have been speculative and not backed by conviction. In such cases, price often returns to equilibrium levels to reassess fair market value.

What to expect in the coming price action

With ADA now firmly back inside the long-term range, a slow grind toward the lower support region is increasingly probable. Traders should exercise patience, avoiding premature entries until there is either a confirmed trend reversal or a test of the lower boundary. The real opportunity may lie in ADA’s eventual consolidation and structure near the bottom of this historical range.

A modest bitcoin rally to a possible challenge of the $86,000 level quickly reversed during U.S. afternoon trading hours on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned on the effects of President Trump’s tariff regime.

“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated,” said Powell in a speech. “The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”

In other words, stagflation — a throwback to a sizable portion of the 1970s when the U.S. experienced weak economic activity alongside double-digit inflation.

“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” continued Powell.

The price of bitcoin (BTC) fell about 2.5% in the minutes following the Powell remarks, now trading at $83,700, down 1.5% over the past 24 hours.

U.S. stocks, which had been trying to mount a comeback from opening declines, also were hit, the Nasdaq slumping 3.4% to a session low.

Powell also mentioned that as crypto is becoming more mainstream, there’s a need for a legal framework for stablecoins. He said that banking regulation around crypto will likely be “partially relaxed.”

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee cleared a bill to regulate stablecoin issuers in March, marking the first committee approval and a significant step closer to law in the U.S.

Hawkish Fed weighs on crypto and BTC

“Powell came out extremely hawkish,” Quinn Thompson, chief investment officer of hedge fund Lekker Capital, said in a Telegram message. It’s notable that Powell downplayed last week’s market turmoil characterizing it as “orderly market functioning,” he added.

“I would have at least expected him to give a nod to the elevated volatility and ruptures forming in the treasury market but he did not do that,” Thompson said.

Powell’s tone suggests that investors should temper their expectations for rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, said Thompson, which could weigh on risk assets including crypto.

“It appears a May cut is firmly off the table barring Fed intervention for bad reasons and I wouldn’t say June is a lock either,” concluded Thompson. “The bull case for crypto and bitcoin specifically is liquidity and policymaker intervention. Both of those seemed very far off based, so it’s difficult for me to paint a constructive picture in the immediate term.”

UPDATE (April 16, 18:40 UTC): Adds additional comments made by Chair Powell about stablecoins. Adds analyst comment.

Bitcoin’s price trajectory is once again capturing headlines, and this time the catalyst appears to be global liquidity trends reshaping investor sentiment. In a recent comprehensive breakdown, Matt Crosby, Lead Analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, presents compelling evidence tying the digital asset’s renewed bullish momentum to the expanding global M2 money supply. His insights not only illuminate the future of Bitcoin price but also anchor its macroeconomic relevance in a broader financial context.

Bitcoin Price and Global Liquidity: A High-Impact Correlation

Crosby highlights a remarkable and consistent correlation—often exceeding 84%—between Bitcoin price and global M2 liquidity levels. As liquidity increases across the global economy, Bitcoin price typically responds with upward movement, although with a noticeable delay. Historical data supports the observation of a 56–60 day lag between monetary expansion and Bitcoin price increases.

This insight has recently proven accurate, as Bitcoin price rebounded from lows of $75,000 to above $85,000. This trend closely aligns with the forecasted recovery that Crosby and his team had outlined based on macro indicators, validating the strength and reliability of the correlation driving Bitcoin price upward.

Why the 2-Month Delay Impacts Bitcoin Price

The two-month delay in market response is a critical observation for understanding Bitcoin price movements. Crosby emphasizes that monetary policy and liquidity injections do not immediately affect speculative assets like BTC. Instead, there is an incubation period, typically around two months, during which liquidity filters through financial systems and begins to influence Bitcoin price.

Crosby has optimized this correlation through various backtests, adjusting timeframes and offsets. Their findings indicate that a 60-day delay yields the most predictive accuracy across both short-term (1-year) and extended (4-year) historical Bitcoin price action. This lag provides a strategic advantage to investors who monitor macro trends to anticipate Bitcoin price surges.

S&P 500 and Its Influence on Bitcoin Price Trends

Adding further credibility to the thesis, Crosby extends his analysis to traditional equity markets. The S&P 500 exhibits an even stronger all-time correlation of approximately 92% with global liquidity. This correlation strengthens the argument that monetary expansion is a significant driver not just for Bitcoin price, but also for broader risk-on asset classes.

By comparing liquidity trends with multiple indices, Crosby demonstrates that Bitcoin price is not an anomaly but part of a broader systemic pattern. When liquidity rises, equities and digital assets alike tend to benefit, making M2 supply an essential indicator for timing Bitcoin price movements.

Forecasting Bitcoin Price to $108,000 by June 2025

To build a forward-looking perspective, Crosby employs historical fractals from previous bull markets to project future Bitcoin price movements. When these patterns are overlaid with current macro data, the model points to a scenario where Bitcoin price could retest and potentially surpass its all-time highs, targeting $108,000 by June 2025.

This optimistic projection for Bitcoin price hinges on the assumption that global liquidity continues its upward trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s recent statements suggest that further monetary stimulus could be deployed if market stability falters—another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth.

The Rate of Expansion Affects Bitcoin Price

While rising liquidity levels are significant, Crosby stresses the importance of monitoring the rate of liquidity expansion to predict Bitcoin price trends. The year-on-year M2 growth rate offers a more nuanced view of macroeconomic momentum. Although liquidity has generally increased, the pace of expansion had slowed temporarily before resuming an upward trend in recent months.

This trend is strikingly similar to conditions observed in early 2017, just before Bitcoin price entered an exponential growth phase. The parallels reinforce Crosby’s bullish outlook on Bitcoin price and emphasize the importance of dynamic, rather than static, macro analysis.

Final Thoughts: Preparing for the Next Bitcoin Price Phase

While potential risks such as a global recession or a significant equity market correction persist, current macro indicators point toward a favorable environment for Bitcoin price. Crosby’s data-driven approach offers investors a strategic lens to interpret and navigate the market.

For those looking to make informed decisions in a volatile environment, these insights provide actionable intelligence grounded in economic fundamentals to capitalize on Bitcoin price opportunities.

For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.