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Bitcoin reserve backlash signals unrealistic industry expectations
The widespread disappointment surrounding the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — hailed as a historic step for Bitcoin adoption — suggests unrealistic investor expectations, according to regulatory experts.
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on March 7, which will utilize Bitcoin (BTC) seized in government criminal cases rather than purchasing the asset directly from the market. The announcement triggered a more than 6% drop in Bitcoin’s price, falling from $90,400 to $84,979, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro data.
The reaction signals unrealistic industry expectations, according to Anastasija Plotnikova, co-founder and CEO of Fideum, a regulatory and blockchain infrastructure firm focused on institutions.
BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph
“It was very clear that the US government could utilize the existing BTC in their possession, aka seized funds,” she told Cointelegraph, adding:
“It is bizarre to see such a big public disappointment coming from some industry players. […] Not that long ago, even the idea of BTC Reserve held and supported by a federal government was a revolutionary idea, and now we see a very solid implementation.”
The Bitcoin reserve is a “cautious” approach with taxpayer funds, which “make this decision well aligned with the messaging from this administration,” added the regulatory expert.
Source: Margo Martin
Although the current plan does not involve government Bitcoin purchases, the order does not rule them out in the future. The order authorizes the US Treasury and Commerce secretaries to develop “budget-neutral strategies” to buy more Bitcoin for the reserve, provided there are no additional costs to taxpayers.
Still, the short-term investor disappointment paired with ongoing macroeconomic concerns related to import tariffs may push Bitcoin to a weekly close below $82,000, risking more downside volatility, analysts told Cointelegraph.
Related: US Bitcoin reserve marks ‘real step’ toward global financial integration
White House Crypto Summit “dramatic shift” from Biden administration
Trump signed the historic Bitcoin reserve order a day ahead of hosting the first White House Crypto Summit, which also received mixed reactions from the crypto community.
Despite its divided reception, the summit marks a pivotal moment for the White House’s engagement with the crypto industry, according to Alexander Urbelis, general counsel and chief information security officer at Ethereum Name Service.
Urbelis told Cointelegraph:
“The very fact that the summit is happening is a dramatic shift from the hands-off approach of the Biden Administration and is sure to resound with the blockchain community as well as younger voters. “
Related: Trump turned crypto from ‘oppressed industry’ to ‘centerpiece’ of US strategy
“There are high hopes for the outcome of the Crypto Summit. One of those hopes is that engagement like this with the White House will continue long after the initial meeting,” he added.
Magazine: SCB tips $500K BTC, SEC delays Ether ETF options, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 23 – Mar. 1
Bitcoin (BTC) investors are preparing for the record-breaking $16.5 billion monthly options expiry on March 28. However, the actual market impact is expected to be more limited, as BTC’s drop below $90,000 caught investors off guard and invalidated many bullish positions. This shift gives Bitcoin bears a crucial opportunity to escape a potential $3 billion loss, a factor that could significantly influence market dynamics in the coming weeks. Bitcoin options open interest for March 28, USD. Source: Laevitas.ch Currently, the total open interest for call (buy) options stands at $10.5 billion, while put (sell) options lag at $6 billion. However, $7.6 billion of these calls are set at $92,000 or higher, meaning Bitcoin would need a 6.4% gain from its current price to make them viable by the March 28 expiry. As a result, the advantage for bullish bets has significantly weakened. Some analysts attribute Bitcoin’s weak performance to the ongoing global tariff war and US government spending cuts, which increase the risk of an economic recession. Traders worry about slower growth, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, which had driven the S&P 500 to a record high on Feb. 19 before falling 7%. S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph Meanwhile, Bitcoin bulls remain hopeful for a decoupling from the stock market, despite the 40-day correlation staying above 70% since early March. Their optimism stems from the expansion of the monetary base by central banks and increased Bitcoin adoption by companies such as GameStop (GME), Rumble (RUM), Metaplanet (TYO:3350), and Semler Scientific (SMLR). As the options expiry date nears, bulls and bears each have a strong incentive to influence Bitcoin’s spot price. However, while bullish investors aim for levels above $92,000, their optimism alone is not enough to ensure BTC surpasses this mark. Deribit leads the options market with a 74% share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 8.5% and Binance at 8%. Given the current market dynamics, Bitcoin bulls hold a strategic advantage heading into the monthly options expiry. For instance, if Bitcoin remains at $86,500 by 8:00 am UTC on March 28, only $2 billion worth of put (sell) options will be in play. This situation incentivizes bears to drive Bitcoin below $84,000, which would increase the value of active put options to $2.6 billion. Related: Would GameStop buying Bitcoin help BTC price hit $200K? Below are five probable scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances but exclude complex strategies, such as selling put options to gain upside price exposure. Between $81,000 and $85,000: $2.7 billion in calls (buy) vs. $2.6 billion in puts (sell). The net result favors the call instruments by $100 million. Between $85,000 and $88,000: $3.3 billion calls vs. $2 billion puts, favoring calls by $1.3 billion. Between $88,000 and $90,000: $3.4 billion calls vs. $1.8 billion puts. favoring calls by $1.6 billion. Between $90,000 and $92,000: $4.4 billion calls vs. $1.4 billion puts, favoring calls by $3 billion. To minimize losses, bears must push Bitcoin below $84,000—a 3% drop—before the March 28 expiry. This move would increase the value of put (sell) options, strengthening their position. Conversely, bulls can maximize their gains by driving BTC above $90,000, which could create enough momentum to establish a bullish trend for April, especially if inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) resume at a strong pace. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph. South Korea’s Ethics Commission revealed that high-ranking public officials in the country hold an average of 35.1 million won ($24,000) in crypto assets. On March 27, the country’s Ethics Commission for Government Officials reportedly disclosed that more than 20% of the surveyed public officials hold 14.4 billion won ($9.8 million) in crypto. This means 411 of the 2,047 officials subjected to the country’s disclosure requirements hold crypto assets. The highest amount disclosed was 1.76 billion won ($1.2 million) belonging to Seoul City Councilor Kim Hye-young. The officials held different crypto assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), Luna Classic (LUNC) and others. The disclosure of public officials’ crypto assets follows calls for transparency from its prime minister. In 2023, South Korean Prime Minister Han Deok-soo said in a news conference that high-ranking government officials must include crypto in their property disclosures. The official said crypto should be treated similarly to other assets like precious metals. On May 25, 2023, South Korea passed a bill mandating public officials to include crypto in their public asset disclosures. The new system granted South Koreans access to the crypto holdings of at least 5,800 public officials starting in 2024. In June 2024, crypto exchanges in the country launched information provision systems to simplify the registration of information about crypto holdings. Related: South Korea temporarily lifts Upbit’s 3-month ban on serving new clients The new law was created in response to the controversy involving South Korean lawmaker Kim Nam-kuk, who was accused of liquidating crypto assets and concealing holdings of around $4.5 million before lawmakers in the country enforced the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) “Travel Rule.” Kim departed from the Democratic Party at the height of the controversial lawsuit to relieve party members of the burden of the lawsuit. While prosecutors requested a six-month prison sentence for Kim, the lawmaker was eventually acquitted after a judge ruled that crypto assets were not subject to public disclosures at the time Kim made the transactions. Magazine: 3AC-related OX.FUN denies insolvency rumors, Bybit goes to war: Asia Express OpenAI expects to more than triple its revenue this year to $12.7 billion, despite fast-growing competition from the likes of China’s DeepSeek and other competitors making rapid progress. The ChatGPT creators also expect its revenue target for 2025 to more than double to $29.4 billion by 2026, Bloomberg reported on March 26, citing a person familiar with the matter. The 2025 estimate is a little higher than the $11.6 billion revenue target that OpenAI was reportedly eyeing for 2025, The New York Times reported last September. Bloomberg noted that the bulk of ChatGPT’s revenue has come from its paid AI software subscription offerings for consumers and businesses. OpenAI reportedly hit 1 million paid users for the corporate versions of ChatGPT last September, while the company more recently added a $200 monthly ChatGPT Pro option. The Sam Altman-led firm does not expect to be cash-flow positive until 2029, when it expects its revenue to top $125 billion, the person told Bloomberg. OpenAI is reportedly close to finalizing a $40 billion funding round led by SoftBank Group at a valuation of up to $300 billion, Bloomberg reported on March 26. The firm is also looking to convert its nonprofit business model into a for-profit venture. While the release of DeepSeek’s ChatGPT-competitor “R-1” model sent shockwaves through the AI industry in late January, it sparked a wave of several other high-quality, low-cost AI solutions from other Chinese tech firms, Bloomberg reported on March 26. Baidu Inc. launched its “Ernie X1” model to compete with DeepSeek’s R-1 model in China, while Alibaba Group launched its new open-source AI model for cost-effective AI agents on March 26. Source: David Sacks Tencent Holdings also unveiled an AI chatbot of its own under subsidiary firm Ant Group Co, while DeepSeek released its latest model — DeepSeek-V3-0324 — on March 24. Related: Cathie Wood to kick off El Salvador’s AI public education program While it remains to be seen how these Chinese models truly stack up against OpenAI’s products, the newer and often cheaper options are putting more pressure on the business models of leading US companies, Balaji Srinivasan, a tech investor and former general partner at tech-focused venture capital firm Andreessen “a16z” Horowitz said in a March 22 X post. “China is trying to do to AI what they always do: study, copy, optimize, and then bankrupt everyone with low prices and enormous scale.” Lee Kai-fu, CEO of Chinese startup 01.AI told Reuters on March 25 that DeepSeek’s efforts have positioned Chinese AI firms only three months behind their US counterparts after previously being around six to nine months behind. Source: The Short Bear Meanwhile, OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman said on Feb. 12 that his firm is looking to ship GPT-4.5 and GPT-5 in the coming weeks or months. Plus and Pro subscribers will be able to run GPT-5 at a “higher level of intelligence” which will incorporate voice, canvas, search, deep research features and more, he said in OpenAI’s technical roadmap update. Among OpenAI’s competitors in the US market are Anthropic, DeepMind, xAI and Google’s Gemini. Magazine: What are native rollups? Full guide to Ethereum’s latest innovation Arthur Hayes, Murad’s Prediction For Meme Coins, AI & DeFi Coins For 2025 Expert Sees Bitcoin Dipping To $50K While Bullish Signs Persist Aptos Leverages Chainlink To Enhance Scalability and Data Access Bitcoin Could Rally to $80,000 on the Eve of US Elections Sonic Now ‘Golden Standard’ of Layer-2s After Scaling Transactions to 16,000+ per Second, Says Andre Cronje Institutional Investors Go All In on Crypto as 57% Plan to Boost Allocations as Bull Run Heats Up, Sygnum Survey Reveals Crypto’s Big Trump Gamble Is Risky Ripple-SEC Case Ends, But These 3 Rivals Could Jump 500x
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Bitcoin bulls pray for a “decoupling” if QE restarts
Bitcoin bulls will have the edge if BTC price passes $90,000
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South Korean public officials disclosed crypto holdings
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