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Can Bitcoin Reach $100K After the Upcoming US Fed Decision?

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Bitcoin’s price briefly crossed the $85,000 mark on Sunday, March 16, marking an 11% rebound from last week’s bottom of $76,000. Bullish traders have been deploying significant leverage positions on BTC ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve rate decision slated for March 19.

Bitcoin (BTC) Attempts $85,000 Recovery as Sellers Continue to Hold

After reaching an all-time high of $109,071 in January, Trump’s inauguration ushered in a pullback phase witch Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a sharp decline of nearly 30%, hitting a low of $76,000 last week.

This downturn has been attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions following President Trump’s intervention in early March and recent US trade tariff announcements.

Bitcoin price action (BTCUSDT)Bitcoin price action (BTCUSDT)
Bitcoin price action (BTCUSDT)

However, positive indicators from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports published last week have spurred a recovery. On March 16, BTC price briefly crossed the $85,000 mark, reflecting an 11.1% gain from the previous week’s low of $76,000 recorded on Tuesday, March 12.

This suggests that investor sentiment has improved significantly since the CPI data release on Wednesday, March 13, with many opting to hold their positions in anticipation of upcoming macroeconomic announcements.

What Fed Rate Outcomes Could Drive BTC to $100K?

The upcoming Federal Reserve decision on interest rates is a critical event for Bitcoin investors.

Historically, lower interest rates have led to increased liquidity in financial markets, often benefiting risk assets ranging from stocks to cryptocurrencies.

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision expected by Wednesday, March 19.

If the Fed signals a rate pause or hints at imminent cuts, it could boost investor confidence, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price toward the $100,000 mark.

US Fed Rate Decision, March 2025 | Source: CMEGROUP/FedWatch ToolUS Fed Rate Decision, March 2025 | Source: CMEGROUP/FedWatch Tool
US Fed Rate Decision, March 2025 | Source: CMEGROUP/FedWatch Tool

Conversely, a hawkish stance with rate hikes could tighten liquidity, posing challenges for Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

However, based on recent data from CME Group, a majority of market watchers have priced in a 99% chance of a rate pause.

If this scenario plays out as expected, BTC price could see some upside in the aftermath of the official rate announcement, as often historically seen after less hawkish Fed decisions.

Bulls Established $1.9 Billion Dominance in Bitcoin Derivative Market

Having digested inflation-easing signals in the US CPI and PPI reports, with market watchers nearly ruling out the chances of a rate cut as previously feared, the majority of Bitcoin traders have priced in the rate pause decision and positioned trades accordingly.

Bitcoin Liquidation Map (BTCUSDT) | March 16Bitcoin Liquidation Map (BTCUSDT) | March 16
Bitcoin Liquidation Map (BTCUSDT) | March 16

In the derivatives market, bullish sentiment is evident. Over the last 7 days, bull traders have mounted long leverage positions amounting to $4.9 billion, while short leverage positions stand at $3.8 billion, giving bulls a net dominance of $1.1 billion.

BTC Outlook for the Week Ahead

This substantial long positioning indicates strong market confidence in Bitcoin’s future appreciation. However, it’s essential to monitor these leveraged positions closely, as sudden market shifts could lead to liquidations, amplifying price movements.

Given the 11% BTC price rebound over the past week, the anticipated Fed rate pause may have already been priced in, and many traders could capitalize on the announcement to execute a sell-the-news strategy.

In this scenario, BTC could see another downturn below the $80,000 mark, especially with long traders currently holding over-leveraged positions.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Recovery in Play, but $100K Remains a Tough Target

Bitcoin price forecast chart below is showing signs of more upside potential after rebounding 11% from the recent $76,000 low, to reach $83,175 at press time. The bullish case for BTC price action new week is supported by a number of technical indicators, but the path to $100,000 remains uncertain as key resistance levels and market sentiment present challenges.

First, the Elliott Wave count suggests Bitcoin has completed a corrective leg down, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $76,555.

Bitcoin Price ForecastBitcoin Price Forecast
Bitcoin Price Forecast

A bounce from this level indicates potential for a relief rally, with immediate targets at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of $89,085, followed by $92,956 (0.5 retracement) and a stronger resistance near $96,827 at the 0.618 level.

Additionally, the Parabolic SAR indicator, currently at $97,068, further reinforces this zone as a pivotal area where bullish momentum could face major resistance.

However, bearish risks remain prominent. The volume profile shows declining buy-side momentum, suggesting a lack of strong conviction among bulls.

More so, the BBP (Bear/Bull Power) indicator remains deeply negative at -10,559, signaling that downward pressure is still in play. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $89,000 convincingly, it could trigger another sell-off toward the $76,000 support level, potentially exposing the market to further downside.

For the week ahead, Bitcoin’s price action hinges on reclaiming $89,000. A decisive close above this level could fuel a rally toward $97,000, but failure to break above could see BTC revisiting $80,000 or lower.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

If the Fed signals a rate pause or future cuts, Bitcoin could rally. However, strong resistance levels and profit-taking may slow momentum.

BTC must reclaim $89,000 to sustain an uptrend. Resistance sits at $92,956 and $96,827, while support remains at $80,000 and $76,000.

Bulls hold a $1.1 billion net dominance in derivatives, but over-leverage increases liquidation risks, potentially leading to sharp price swings.

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ibrahim

Crypto analyst covering derivatives markets, macro trends, technical analysis, and DeFi. His works feature in-depth market insights, price forecasts, and institutional-grade research on digital assets.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Michael Saylor’s MSTR Purchases 130 Additional BTC

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Strategy (MSTR) marginally added to its massive bitcoin (BTC) holdings, selling a modest amount of its preferred stock (STRK) to fund the acquisition.

The company last week purchased 130 bitcoin for roughly $10.7 million, or an average price of $82,981 each, according to a Monday morning filing. The so-called “BTC yield” is 6.9% year-to-date, according to Strategy.

Company holdings are now 499,226 bitcoin acquired for a total of $33.1 billion, or an average cost of $66,360 per token.

This latest purchase was funded by the sale of 123,000 shares of STRK, which generated about $10.7 million of net proceeds. Strategy last week announced a mammoth $21 billion at-the-market offering of that preferred stock.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.





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Bitcoin To $10 Million? Experts Predict Explosive Growth By 2035

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In a new publication titled The Mustard Seed, Joe Burnett—Director of Market Research at Unchained—outlines a thesis that envisions Bitcoin reaching $10 million per coin by 2035. This inaugural quarterly letter takes the long view, focusing on “time arbitrage” as it surveys where Bitcoin, technology, and human civilization could stand a decade from now.

Burnett’s argument revolves around two principal transformations that, he contends, are setting the stage for an unprecedented migration of global capital into Bitcoin: (1) the “Great Flow of Capital” into an asset with absolute scarcity, and (2) the “Acceleration of Deflationary Technology” as AI and robotics reshape entire industries.

A Long-Term Perspective On Bitcoin

Most economic commentary zooms in on the next earnings report or the immediate price volatility. In contrast, The Mustard Seed announces its mission clearly: “Unlike most financial commentary that fixates on the next quarter or next year, this letter takes the long view—identifying profound shifts before they become consensus.”

At the core of Burnett’s outlook is the observation that the global financial system—comprising roughly $900 trillion in total assets—faces ongoing risks of “dilution or devaluation.” Bonds, currencies, equities, gold, and real estate each have expansionary or inflationary components that erode their store-of-value function:

  • Gold ($20 trillion): Mined at approximately 2% annually, increasing supply and slowly diluting its scarcity.
  • Real Estate ($300 trillion): Expands at around 2.4% per year due to new development.
  • Equities ($110 trillion): Company profits are constantly eroded by competition and market saturation, contributing to devaluation risk.
  • Fixed Income & Fiat ($230 trillion): Structurally subject to inflation, which reduces purchasing power over time.

Burnett describes this phenomenon as capital “searching for a lower potential energy state,” likening the process to water cascading down a waterfall. In his view, all pre-Bitcoin asset classes were effectively “open bounties” for dilution or devaluation. Wealth managers could distribute capital among real estate, bonds, gold, or stocks, but each category carried a mechanism by which its real value could erode.

Enter Bitcoin, with its 21-million-coin hard cap. Burnett sees this digital asset as the first monetary instrument incapable of being diluted or devalued from within. Supply is fixed; demand, if it grows, can directly translate into price appreciation. He cites Michael Saylor’s “waterfall analogy”: “Capital naturally seeks the lowest potential energy state—just as water flows downhill. Before bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation. Wealth stored in every asset class acted as a market bounty, incentivizing dilution or devaluation.”

As soon as Bitcoin became widely recognized, says Burnett, the game changed for capital allocation. Much like discovering an untapped reservoir far below existing water basins, the global wealth supply found a new outlet—one that cannot be augmented or diluted.

To illustrate Bitcoin’s unique supply dynamics, The Mustard Seed draws a parallel with the halving cycle. In 2009, miners received 50 BTC per block—akin to Niagara Falls at full force. As of today, the reward dropped to 3.125 BTC, reminiscent of halving the Falls’ flow repeatedly until it is significantly reduced. In 2065, Bitcoin’s newly minted supply will be negligible compared to its total volume, mirroring a waterfall reduced to a trickle.

Though Burnett concedes that attempts to quantify Bitcoin’s global adoption rely on uncertain assumptions, he references two models: the Power Law Model which projects $1.8 million per BTC by 2035 and Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin model which suggests $2.1 million per BTC by 2035.

He counters that these projections might be “too conservative” because they often assume diminishing returns. In a world of accelerating technological adoption—and a growing realization of Bitcoin’s properties—price targets could overshoot these models significantly.

The Acceleration Of Deflationary Technology

A second major catalyst for Bitcoin’s upside potential, per The Mustard Seed, is the deflationary wave brought on by AI, automation, and robotics. These innovations rapidly increase productivity, lower costs, and make goods and services more abundant. By 2035, Burnett believes global costs in several key sectors could undergo dramatic reductions.

Adidas’ “Speedfactories” cut sneaker production from months to days. The scaling of 3D printing and AI-driven assembly lines could slash manufacturing costs by 10x. 3D-printed homes already go up 50x faster at far lower costs. Advanced supply-chain automation, combined with AI logistics, could make quality housing 10x cheaper. Autonomous ride-hailing can potentially reduce fares by 90% by removing labor costs and improving efficiency.

Burnett underscores that, under a fiat system, natural deflation is often “artificially suppressed.” Monetary policies—like persistent inflation and stimulus—inflate prices, masking technology’s real impact on lowering costs.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, would let deflation “run its course,” increasing purchasing power for holders as goods become more affordable. In his words: “A person holding 0.1 BTC today (~$10,000) could see its purchasing power increase 100x or more by 2035 as goods and services become exponentially cheaper.”

To illustrate how supply growth erodes a store of value over time, Burnett revisits gold’s performance since 1970. Gold’s nominal price from $36 per ounce to roughly $2,900 per ounce in 2025 appears substantial, but that price gain was continuously diluted by the annual 2% increase in gold’s overall supply. Over five decades, the global stock of gold almost tripled.

If gold’s supply had been static, its price would have hit $8,618 per ounce by 2025, according to Burnett’s calculations. This supply constraint would have bolstered gold’s scarcity, possibly pushing demand and price even higher than $8,618.

Bitcoin, by contrast, incorporates precisely the fixed supply condition that gold never had. Any new demand will not spur additional coin issuance and thus should drive the price upward more directly.

Burnett’s forecast for a $10 million Bitcoin by 2035 would imply a total market cap of $200 trillion. While that figure sounds colossal, he points out that it represents only about 11% of global wealth—assuming global wealth continues to expand at a ~7% annual rate. From this vantage point, allocating around 11% of the world’s assets into what The Mustard Seed calls “the best long-term store of value asset” might not be far-fetched. “Every past store of value has perpetually expanded in supply to meet demand. Bitcoin is the first that cannot.”

A key piece of the puzzle is the security budget for Bitcoin: miner revenue. By 2035, Bitcoin’s block subsidy will be down to 0.78125 BTC per block. At $10 million per coin, miners could earn $411 billion in aggregate revenue each year. Since miners sell the Bitcoin they earn to cover costs, the market would have to absorb $411 billion of newly mined BTC annually.

Burnett draws a parallel with the global wine market, which was valued at $385 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $528 billion by 2030. If a “mundane” sector like wine can sustain that level of consumer demand, an industry securing the world’s leading digital store of value reaching similar scale, he argues, is well within reason.
Despite public perception that Bitcoin is becoming mainstream, Burnett highlights an underreported metric: “The number of people worldwide with $100,000 or more in bitcoin is only 400,000… that’s 0.005% of the global population—just 5 in 100,000 people.”

Meanwhile, studies might show around 39% of Americans have some level of “direct or indirect” Bitcoin exposure, but this figure includes any fractional ownership—such as holding shares of Bitcoin-related equities or ETFs through mutual funds and pension plans. Real, substantial adoption remains niche. “If Bitcoin is the best long-term savings technology, we would expect anyone with substantial savings to hold a substantial amount of bitcoin. Yet today, virtually no one does.”

Burnett emphasizes that the road to $10 million does not require Bitcoin to supplant all money worldwide—only to “absorb a meaningful percentage of global wealth.” The strategy for forward-looking investors, he contends, is simple but non-trivial: ignore short-term noise, focus on the multi-year horizon, and act before global awareness of Bitcoin’s properties becomes universal. “Those who can see past the short-term volatility and focus on the bigger picture will recognize bitcoin as the most asymmetric and overlooked bet in global markets.”

In other words, it is about “front-running the capital migration” while Bitcoin’s user base is still comparatively minuscule and the vast majority of traditional wealth remains in legacy assets.

At press time, BTC traded at $83,388.

Bitcoin price
BTC price stalls below key resistance, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com



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Dormant whale sends 300 BTC to FalconX as Bitcoin nears $84k CME gap

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A whale that has been dormant for 1.5 years has deposited 300 BTC to crypto brokerage FalconX alongside 1,050 BTC to two other wallets.

According to data on SpotOnChain, an anonymous whale with $85.7 million in Bitcoin (BTC) holdings just sent 300 BTC through digital asset broker FalconX. At current market prices, the transaction is worth around $25.1 million in BTC.

In addition to FalconX, the whale also sent 1,050 BTC, equal to around $87.2 million, to two fairly new wallets. At press time, the address still holds around $12.55 million worth of Bitcoin, or equal to 150,000 BTC.

The last transaction recorded on-chain from the whale occurred on Aug. 18, 2023 when it received 1,500 BTC from market marker Cumberland at a price of $26,353, worth $39.5 million at the time. This means that the address has been dormant for nearly two years.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin has gone down by 0.44%. BTC is currently trading hands at $83,613. Bitcoin has been on a turbulent path in the past month, going down by more than 14%.

Dormant whale sends 300 BTC to FalconX as Bitcoin nears $84k CME gap - 1
Price chart for Bitcoin as it nears $84k in the past 24 hours of trading, March 17, 2025 | Source: crypto.news

In the past day, Bitcoin reached a peak price of $84,693 before falling further to a $82,061 low and maintaining its value at around $83,000. In fact, BTC’s dive to the $84,000 threshold fills the CME price gap, which sets the stage for another potential price climb.

A CME gap is the disparity between the closing price of Bitcoin on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or CME and its opening price when trading resumes. It is often used as an indicator for corrections after a sharp drop in the market. The CME gap is often referred as a “magnet” for Bitcoin prices.

Bitcoin’s recent price drop filling the CME gap and the notable BTC whale movements could suggest increased market activity is on the horizon. Traders are already anticipating the next market moves that could very well influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory and overall market sentiment.



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