Bitcoin
Crypto Trader Unveils Best-Case Scenario for Bitcoin To Avoid 2021-Style Market Meltdown
A crypto strategist known for making timely Bitcoin calls says he sees a path for BTC to remain in bull territory, amid surging bearish momentum.
In a new strategy session, pseudonymous trader Cheds tells his 49,800 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin bears have had the upper hand ever since BTC broke below its crucial support level at $90,000.
According to Cheds, Bitcoin bulls must now defend BTC’s next line of support to avoid a potential repeat of the 2021 market collapse.
“I still remain in the camp that we still have the momentum overhang from losing [$90,000] support, and it’s very likely we’re going to continue down and tag $72,000. And that’s my base case…
I just think it’s most likely we’re going to tag the prior range. What we want to see in Bitcoin is we want to see it hold the SMA (simple moving average) 50… We know that’s important because that was something that played a big role in the 2021 top when the price started to lose that [SMA] 50. We don’t want to see that happen.”
In December 2021, Bitcoin went below the SMA50 and lost about 66% of its value, melting down from $48,000 to $16,000 in less than a year.
On how Bitcoin can potentially avoid witnessing a similar fate, Cheds says,
“You can do that with a nice wick… A nice wick below the Bollinger Band and a recovery, like an intraweek recovery would be nice, where we close back up above the SMA50, we tag and test and hold this prior level ($72,000), then we can continue with the trend, the more high time frame trend which is bullish…
So the best case for me would be a very quick test and recovery, like a V recovery, an overreaction move. Something like we had perhaps [in August 2024], the dip below and the recovery, so we could test the prior range without losing the MA50. That would be the best case in my view.”
A wick is a thin line that extends above or below a candlestick’s body. In the trader’s best-case scenario, a lower wick would suggest tremendous buying pressure.
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $75,795, down over 7% on the day.
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According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, while Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a steady rise in price from November 2024 to February 2025, sentiment in the cryptocurrency’s futures market has not shown a corresponding uptick.
Bitcoin Futures Sentiment Index Signals Caution
Bitcoin’s price surged from approximately $74,000 in November 2024 to a peak of $101,000 by early February 2025. However, following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, risk-on assets – including BTC -have experienced a significant pullback.
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After hitting a potential local bottom of $74,508 earlier this month on April 6, the apex cryptocurrency has recovered some of its recent losses. The top digital asset is trading in the mid $80,000 range at the time of writing.
Despite this recovery, BTC’s futures sentiment has continued to decline since February. Even as the price holds near local highs, sentiment in the futures market has notably cooled.
CryptoQuant contributor abramchart highlighted this divergence, noting that it could indicate increasing caution or profit-taking behavior despite the ongoing bullish trend. The analyst commented:
This indicates a cooling interest or increased fear in the futures market, possibly due to macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory concerns, or expected corrections.
A look at the BTC futures sentiment index shows a resistance zone around 0.8 and a support level near 0.2. The index is currently hovering around 0.4, pointing to a predominantly bearish sentiment across futures markets.
Similarly, Bitcoin’s average price has steadily declined from its early 2025 highs. It is now ranging between $70,000 and $80,000, signalling possible market indecision amid heightened tariff tensions.
According to abramchart, if futures sentiment remains low, BTC could face extended price consolidation or even downward pressure in the near term. However, any emerging bullish catalyst could quickly shift the sentiment and renew upward momentum.
Is BTC Close To A Momentum Shift?
Some analysts believe Bitcoin may be nearing a breakout. After consolidating in the mid-$80,000s for several weeks, on-chain metrics suggest BTC may be undervalued at current levels. Indicators such as BTC exchange reserves and the Stablecoin Supply Ratio support this view.
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In addition, momentum indicators like Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index have begun to break out of a long-standing downward trendline – raising hopes for a potential bullish rally back toward $100,000.
However, several risks still remain. The recent appearance of a ‘death cross’ on BTC’s price chart – combined with persistent macroeconomic concerns related to trade tariffs – could still weigh heavily on market sentiment. At press time, BTC trades at $83,917, down 1.8% over the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
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In yet another milestone for Bitcoin adoption in Latin America, the Panama City Council has voted to approve the acceptance of Bitcoin and other digital currencies for municipal services, making it the first public institution in the country to do so.
The news was announced by Panama City Mayor Mayer Mizrachi on X (formerly Twitter), who stated:
“Panama City council has just voted in favor of becoming the first public institution of government to accept payments in Crypto. Citizens will now be able to pay taxes, fees, tickets and permits entirely in crypto starting with BTC, ETH, USDC, USDT.”
This decision sets Panama City on a more progressive path, enabling residents to interact with their local government using Bitcoin for everyday transactions. Mizrachi also explained how this was achieved without the need for new legislation, a hurdle that had stalled previous efforts.
“Prior administrations tried to push a bill in the senate to make this possible, but we found a simple way to do it without new legislation. Legally, public institutions must receive funds in $, so we partner with a bank who will take care of the transaction—receiving in crypto and convert on spot to $. This allows for the free flow of crypto in the entire economy and entire government.”
The Panama City Mayor’s Office further confirmed the news on its official social media channels, saying:
“We will soon become the first public institution in the country to allow payment for municipal services in cryptocurrency, through an authorized bank that will be responsible for converting the proceeds into dollars for the Mayor’s Office.”
Muy pronto nos convertiremos en la primera institución pública del país en permitir el pago de servicios municipales en criptomonedas, a través de un banco autorizado que se encargará de transformar los ingresos en dólares para la Alcaldía.
pic.twitter.com/wccxO1agfR
— Alcaldía de Panamá (@Panamaalcaldia) April 15, 2025
Mayor Mizrachi also revealed that the agreement with the banking partner will be finalized next week: “Deal’s being signed next week at the Blockchain conf in Panama. Look out for signing of the deal next week.” A widely followed crypto analyst says one Solana (SOL) competitor may be gearing up for a breakout. In a new thread, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe tells his 783,000 followers on the social media platform X that Sei (SEI) may increase more than 100% its current value if it breaks through a key resistance level. “SEI starts to show momentum. The Bitcoin pair has a strong bullish divergence on the higher timeframes and the USD pair faces a crucial resistance. Breaking through $0.20 opens up a continuation towards $0.30-$0.35.” SEI is trading for $0.17 at time of writing, down 2.4% in the last 24 hours. Next up, the analyst says that Bitcoin (BTC) is in a consolidation phase that may lead to an explosive move to the upside. “Bitcoin is stuck in the final range. Another test of $87,000 and we’ll likely break upwards to the rally of a new all-time high.” Bitcoin is trading for $83,800 at time of writing, flat on the day. Lastly, the analyst says that Ethereum (ETH) may be kicking off an uptrend if the price of gold peaks, based on ETH’s historic inverse correlation with the precious metal. “A good start of the week, as ETH is +4% against Bitcoin. The ultimate question whether it will sustain or not, last months it has been giving back the returns in the days after. What to monitor? Gold peaking or not. If that’s the case, then we’ll see more strength on ETH.” The analyst also says that ETH’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is flashing bullish, having entered oversold territory. The RSI is a momentum oscillator used to determine whether an asset is oversold or overbought. The RSI’s values range from zero to 100. A level between 70 and 100 indicates that an asset is overbought. The 0 to 30 level range indicates that an asset is oversold. “It’s been a bear market for 1,225 days for ETH, as, in this period, gold did a 2x. The lowest RSI on the weekly candle for ETH as well.” ETH is trading for $1,589 at time of writing, down 2% in the last 24 hours. Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram   Generated Image: Midjourney Arthur Hayes, Murad’s Prediction For Meme Coins, AI & DeFi Coins For 2025 Expert Sees Bitcoin Dipping To $50K While Bullish Signs Persist Aptos Leverages Chainlink To Enhance Scalability and Data Access Bitcoin Could Rally to $80,000 on the Eve of US Elections Crypto’s Big Trump Gamble Is Risky Institutional Investors Go All In on Crypto as 57% Plan to Boost Allocations as Bull Run Heats Up, Sygnum Survey Reveals Sonic Now ‘Golden Standard’ of Layer-2s After Scaling Transactions to 16,000+ per Second, Says Andre Cronje 3 Voting Polls Show Why Ripple’s XRP Price Could Hit $10 Soon
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Crypto Trader Says Solana Competitor Starting To Show Bullish Momentum, Updates Outlook on Bitcoin and Ethereum
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Surf The Daily Hodl MixDisclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
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