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Analyst Reveals What You Can’t Miss

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

In a market breakdown shared on X, independent trader and Zero Complexity Trading founder Koroush Khaneghah points to a handful of critical crypto charts that he believes could dictate the next major market move. Khaneghah, who has invested in over 50 startups, emphasizes that the charts for BTC/USD, BTC Dominance (BTC.D), TOTAL2, ETH/BTC, and SOL/BTC provide invaluable insights into the crypto market’s current condition and possible future shifts.

BTC/USD: Defining The Crypto Market

Khaneghah identifies BTC/USD as the yardstick for gauging what stage of the bull run the market might be in. According to his view:

“This decides what stage of the bull run we’re in.
– Breaks above ATH resume the bull run
– Consolidation below ATH -> Altcoins enter accumulation zones
– Major structural breaks -> Time to turn bearish”

He suggests traders begin by determining which of three market environments Bitcoin is in: a raging bull market, a consolidation phase, or a structural downturn. Currently, Khaneghah sees BTC/USD “ranging below all-time highs, coming off some major uptrends,” which often presents either a catch-up scenario for altcoins or a prolonged accumulation phase ahead of Bitcoin’s next attempt to break all-time highs.

Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin price analysis, 1-day chart | Source: X @KoroushAK

BTC Dominance (BTC.D)

To clarify whether altcoins are poised for a significant move, Khaneghah turns to BTC Dominance. As he explains: “BTC.D (bitcoin dominance) tracks Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap. “Increasing Dominance = BTC outperforms and altcoins lag (same for upside and downside). Decreasing Dominance = BTC cools off and money flows into Altcoins.”

BTC.D
BTC.D, 1-week chart | Source: X @KoroushAK

Dominance rising typically means Bitcoin is absorbing the bulk of market liquidity. Meanwhile, a drop in BTC.D often suggests altcoins are about to see greater inflows of capital.

Crypto Market Cap Excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2)

The TOTAL2 chart, which excludes Bitcoin from the total crypto market capitalization, is key to analyzing altcoin behavior. Khaneghah advises: “When BTC.D Falls, TOTAL2 increases because capital is rotating into altcoins. When TOTAL2 breaks out, look for longs on the strongest altcoins, rotate out of Bitcoin, and shift capital into alts again.”

Crypto total 2
Crypto TOTAL2, 3-week chart | Source: X @KoroushAK

He stresses that the highest probability trades come from identifying moments when the market rotates away from Bitcoin. In these instances, traders might see stronger returns by entering altcoin positions rather than remaining primarily in BTC.

ETH/BTC

Khaneghah underscores that ETH/BTC is a helpful barometer for broader altcoin sentiment: “The best altcoin plays happen when ETH/BTC stops trending downwards because the market confidence in alts returns here.”

ETHBTC
ETHBTC, 3-week chart | Source: X @KoroushAK

When Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin or stabilizing against it, it generally sparks confidence that altcoins could experience rallies, often referred to as “altseason.”

SOL/BTC

Khaneghah also shines a spotlight on SOL/BTC, suggesting that Solana’s performance relative to Bitcoin could reshape altcoin capital rotation: “I don’t normally look at this but a comparison helps decide if the money rotation has a better reward within the SOL ecosystem or ETH. People will think SOL has ‘pumped already’ but I like buying coins with strength, rather than buying coins that might catch a bid.”

SOLBTC
SOLBTC, 1-week chart | Source: X @KoroushAK

While Solana has posted significant gains, Khaneghah believes its strong performance could continue. He notes that if Solana keeps outperforming Bitcoin, some capital might shift away from ETH, potentially amplifying activity across the SOL ecosystem.

At press time, BTC traded at $105,026.

Bitcoin price
BTC price, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com



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North Korean Lazarus Group Identified As Culprit In Bybit’s Historic $1.5 Billion Hack

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In a significant blow to the cryptocurrency industry, Bybit, one of the leading crypto exchanges, has confirmed a major security breach involving its Ethereum cold wallet. 

The incident, reported on Friday by Bitcoinist, marks one of the largest cryptocurrency hacks in history, with losses estimated at over $1.5 billion.

Bybit Hack Linked To North Korea’s Lazarus Group

According to Bybit, the breach occurred during a transfer from their ETH multisig cold wallet to a warm wallet. The exchange revealed on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that the attack was executed through a “sophisticated manipulation” of the transaction process. 

This manipulation allowed the hacker to mask the signing interface, which displayed the correct wallet address while altering the underlying smart contract logic. 

Subsequently, on-chain market intelligence firm Arkham Intelligence revealed that crypto sleuth ZachXBT has provided compelling evidence linking the hack to the notorious Lazarus Group, a North Korea-backed hacker organization. 

In his detailed analysis, ZachXBT reportedly submitted findings that included test transactions, associated wallets, forensic charts, and timing analyses. This information has been shared with Bybit to assist in its ongoing investigation.

$1.44 Billion In Misappropriated Assets

The scale of the breach is staggering. Estimates suggest that approximately 401,347 ETH, valued at around $1.12 billion, were withdrawn. 

Additionally, other assets lost in the hack include 90,376 stETH worth $253.16 million, 15,000 cmETH valued at $44.13 million, and 8,000 mETH totaling $23 million. The total estimated loss stands at approximately $1.44 billion.

In light of this incident, Bybit has activated its security team and is collaborating with leading blockchain forensic experts to conduct a thorough investigation. 

The exchange has also reached out to other teams with expertise in blockchain analytics and fund recovery, inviting them to assist in tracing the misappropriated assets.

It remains to be seen what further action Bybit will take with the information provided by ZachXBT and how the case will unfold regarding the misappropriated customer funds. 

Bybit

As for ETH’s price, the second largest cryptocurrency on the market has seen a 4% retracement towards $2,640 just hours after the security breach. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com



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Experts Say XRP’s True Value Could Be $10,000

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

A popular cryptocurrency has once again captured the attention of many crypto investors after some experts started discussing the potential long-term valuation of the digital asset. Prominent market analysts believe that XRP could possibly reach $10,000 per coin, saying that the notion is “not a crazy” prediction but a conservative one.

Realistic Price

Several crypto analysts argued that a valuation forecast of $10,000 is feasible which they believe could be fueled by institutional adoption and its potential role in global finance.

“$10,000 XRP isn’t crazy. It’s conservative,” Rowen Exchange said in an X post.

The crypto analyst showed a number of reasons why the $10,000 price target for XRP is a conservative figure.

Institutional Adoption

According to Rowen Exchange, one of the strongest arguments that XRP could reach $10,000 is the token’s adoption. The crypto analyst explained that the token has experienced exponential growth in its institutional adoption.

Rowen Exchange pointed out that once major banks, payment processors, and governments increase their usage of XRP for cross-border payments, the demand for the tokens is expected to soar leading to a price surge.

The crypto expert said that XRP has a total supply of 100 billion coins. However, Rowen Exchange noted that only half of the token’s total supply is actually circulating in the market because of escrow releases and long-term holdings.

XRP market cap currently at $154 billion. Chart: TradingView.com

The analysts theorized that once institutions start hoarding the token for liquidity purposes, it is predicted that it would result in a supply squeeze which might push the price to go up.

Rowen Exchange added that institutional adoption is different from retail-driven speculation because it can provide sustained liquidity and volume, leading to an ascending price over time.

Although $10,000 could be a conservative estimate, XRP would be required to grow by over 362,000% to reach that price target from its current price of $2.76, something skeptics see as a long way to go for the token.

‘Highly Unlikely’

Meanwhile, a crypto community member commented on Rowen Exchange’s post saying that the $10,000 price target is “highly unlikely.”

The crypto investor disagrees with the prediction arguing that in order for XRP to reach $10,000, the token would need to have a market cap of $1 quadrillion, arguing that it is “unrealistic” since the market cap of the entire cryptocurrency is about $3 trillion, as of 2024 while the global economy has around $100 trillion.

However, another crypto analyst believes that market capitalization is irrelevant in XRP’s potentially reaching $10,000, explaining that market cap does not matter because the token’s value is utility and not speculation.

The analyst added that XRP can facilitate massive global transactions efficiently, claiming that the token is built for the next era of global finance.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView





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Analyst Reveals Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Signals Untapped Potential—What’s Next?

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Bitcoin’s price performance in recent weeks has maintained a sluggish movement, with the cryptocurrency now hovering near the $97,000 mark. Despite the 3% decline over the past two weeks, Bitcoin remains within a consolidation phase following its January all-time high above $109,000.

As the asset lingers in this range, discussions around the ongoing halving cycle and its potential impact on future price movements have gained momentum. One noteworthy perspective comes from CryptoQuant analyst Oinonen, who recently shared insights into Bitcoin’s current standing relative to past halving cycles.

Institutional Activity and Market Signals

In a detailed analysis titled “Comparing Post-Halving Performance,” Oinonen pointed out that Bitcoin’s price has only risen 63% since the most recent halving in April 2024. This contrasts sharply with the 686% surge seen in the halving cycle of 2020-2021.

While the power-law model and the principle of diminishing returns suggest more subdued gains over time, the relatively modest appreciation since the last halving indicates that the current cycle may still be in progress, leaving room for further upside.

Bitcoin halving cycle analysis

Oinonen also highlighted the role of institutional players in shaping Bitcoin’s price outlook. Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to be an influential market participant. In early 2025, the company increased its Bitcoin holdings by 7,633 BTC, bringing its total to roughly 478,740 units.

According to Oinonen, Strategy’s ongoing acquisition strategy is a key indicator of institutional demand. Historically, these purchases have been pro-cyclical, suggesting that continued accumulation could signal a positive trajectory for Bitcoin’s spot price. Conversely, a slowdown in institutional buying could reflect a weaker market sentiment.

Long-Term Outlook Amid Unfinished Halving Cycle

Looking ahead, Oinonen anticipates a mixed market environment. Short-term challenges, such as a potential “sell in May” effect and a stagnant summer, may give way to stronger performance in the fourth quarter.

The analyst reveals that this seasonal pattern has played out repeatedly in previous years, often resulting in elevated price levels by year’s end. However, the possibility of a more significant correction—spanning several months or even a year—remains on the table, particularly if macroeconomic events, such as geopolitical resolutions, shift market dynamics.

Overall, the current halving cycle, by Oinonen’s analysis, appears incomplete. The moderate gains since April 2024 reflect a market that has yet to fully capitalize on the reduced issuance rate.

As such, the notion that Bitcoin’s bull run might still have legs is underpinned by historical trends and the presence of institutional players like Strategy. The interplay between reduced supply and continued demand sets the stage for potential upward movements, even as near-term volatility persists.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView



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