Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving, and its once-predictable four-year cycles may no longer hold the same relevance. In a recent conversation with Matt Crosby, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Mitchell Askew, Head Analyst at Blockware Solutions, shared his perspective on how Bitcoin ETFs, mining advancements, and institutional adoption are reshaping the asset’s price behavior.

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According to Askew, Bitcoin’s historical pattern of parabolic price increases followed by steep drawdowns is changing as institutional investors enter the market. At the same time, the mining industry is becoming more efficient and stable, creating new dynamics that affect Bitcoin’s supply and price trends.

Bitcoin’s Market Cycles Are Fading

Askew suggests that Bitcoin may no longer experience the extreme cycles of past bull and bear markets. Historically, halving events reduced miner rewards, triggered supply shocks, and fueled rapid price increases, often followed by corrections of 70% or more. However, the increasing presence of institutional investors is leading to a more structured, macro-driven market.

He explains that Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations are bringing consistent demand into Bitcoin, reducing the likelihood of extreme boom-and-bust price movements. Unlike retail traders, who tend to buy in euphoria and panic-sell during downturns, institutions are more likely to sell into strength and accumulate Bitcoin on dips.

Askew also notes that since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, price movements have become more measured, with longer consolidation periods before continued growth. This suggests Bitcoin is beginning to behave more like a traditional financial asset, rather than a speculative high-volatility market.

The Role of Bitcoin Mining in Price Stability

As a mining analyst at Blockware Solutions, Askew provides insight into how Bitcoin mining dynamics influence price trends. He notes that while many assume a rising hash rate is always bullish, the reality is more complex.

In the short term, increasing hash rate can be bearish, as it leads to higher competition among miners and more Bitcoin being sold to cover electricity costs. However, over the long term, a rising hash rate reflects greater investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and network security.

Another key observation from Askew is that Bitcoin’s hash rate growth lags behind price growth by 3-12 months. When Bitcoin’s price rises sharply, mining profitability increases, prompting more capital to flow into mining infrastructure. However, deploying new mining rigs and setting up facilities takes time, leading to a delayed impact on hash rate expansion.

Why Mining Profitability Is Stabilizing

Askew also highlights that mining hardware efficiency is reaching a plateau, which has significant implications for miners and Bitcoin’s supply structure.

In Bitcoin’s early years, new mining machines offered dramatic efficiency improvements, forcing miners to upgrade hardware every 1-2 years to remain competitive. Today, however, new models are only about 10% more efficient than the previous generation. As a result, mining rigs can now remain profitable for 4-8 years, reducing the pressure on miners to continuously reinvest in new equipment.

Electricity costs remain the biggest factor in mining profitability, and Askew explains that miners are increasingly seeking low-cost power sources to maintain long-term sustainability. Many companies, including Blockware Solutions, operate in rural U.S. locations with stable energy prices, ensuring better profitability even during market downturns.

Could the U.S. Government Start Accumulating Bitcoin?

Another important discussion point raised by Askew is the potential for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Some policymakers have proposed that the U.S. government accumulate Bitcoin in the same way it holds gold reserves, recognizing its potential as a global store of value.

Askew explains that if such a reserve were implemented, it could create a massive supply shock, pushing Bitcoin’s price significantly higher. However, he cautions that government action is slow and would likely involve gradual accumulation rather than sudden large-scale purchases.

Even if implemented over several years, such a program could further reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trajectory by removing available supply from the market.

Bitcoin Price Predictions & Long-Term Outlook

Based on current trends, Askew remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory, though he believes the market’s behavior is shifting toward more gradual, sustained growth rather than extreme speculative cycles.

Bitcoin Price Targets for 2025:

• Base Case: $150K – $200K
• Bull Case: $250K+

Long-Term (10-Year) Forecast:

• Base Case: $500K – $1M
• Bull Case: Bitcoin flips gold’s $20T market cap → $1M+ per BTC

Askew sees several key factors driving Bitcoin’s price over the next decade, including:
Steady institutional demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries.
Reduced mining hardware upgrades, leading to a more stable industry.
Potential government involvement in Bitcoin reserves.
Macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates, inflation, and global liquidity cycles.

He emphasizes that as Bitcoin’s market structure matures, it may become less susceptible to sharp price swings, making it a more attractive long-term asset for institutions.

Conclusion: A More Mature Bitcoin Market

According to Askew, Bitcoin is undergoing a structural shift that will shape its price trends for years to come. With institutional investors reducing market volatility, mining innovations improving efficiency, and potential government adoption, Bitcoin’s market behavior is beginning to resemble that of gold or other long-term financial assets.

While dramatic parabolic runs may become less frequent, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory appears stronger and more sustainable than ever. Askew’s perspective reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset—it is evolving into a key financial instrument with increasing global adoption.

If you’re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Bitcoin has been struggling with lower lows in recent weeks, leaving many investors questioning whether the asset is on the brink of a major bear cycle. However, a rare data point tied to the US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) suggests that a significant shift in market dynamics may be imminent. This bitcoin buy signal, which has only appeared three times in BTC’s history, could point to a bullish reversal despite the current bearish sentiment.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
Bitcoin: This Had Only Ever Happened 3x Before

BTC vs DXY Inverse Relationship

Bitcoin’s price action has long been inversely correlated with the US Dollar Strength Index (DXY). Historically, when the DXY strengthens, BTC tends to struggle, while a declining DXY often creates favorable macroeconomic conditions for Bitcoin price appreciation.

Despite this historically bullish influence, Bitcoin’s price has continued to retreat, recently dropping from over $100,000 to below $80,000. However, past occurrences of this rare DXY retracement suggest that a delayed but meaningful BTC rebound could still be in play.

Bitcoin Buy Signal Historic Occurrences

Currently, the DXY has been in a sharp decline, a decrease of over 3.4% within a single week, a rate of change that has only been observed three times in Bitcoin’s entire trading history.

To understand the potential impact of this DXY signal, let’s examine the three prior instances when this sharp decline in the US dollar strength index occurred:

• 2015 Post-Bear Market Bottom

The first occurrence was after BTC’s price had bottomed out in 2015. Following a period of sideways consolidation, BTC’s price experienced a significant upward surge, gaining over 200% within months.

The second instance occurred in early 2020, following the sharp market collapse triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar to the 2015 case, BTC initially experienced choppy price action before a rapid upward trend emerged, culminating in a multi-month rally.

• 2022 Bear Market Recovery

The most recent instance happened at the end of the 2022 bear market. After an initial period of price stabilization, BTC followed with a sustained recovery, climbing to substantially higher prices and kicking off the current bull cycle over the following months.

In each case, the sharp decline in the DXY was followed by a consolidation phase before BTC embarked on a significant bullish run. Overlaying the price action of these three instances onto our current price action we get an idea of how things could play out in the near future.

Equity Markets Correlation

Interestingly, this pattern isn’t limited to Bitcoin. A similar relationship can be observed in traditional markets, particularly in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. When the DXY retraces sharply, equity markets have historically outperformed their baseline returns.

The all-time average 30-day return for the Nasdaq following a similar DXY decline stands at 4.29%, well above the standard 30-day return of 1.91%. Extending the window to 60 days, the Nasdaq’s average return increases to nearly 7%, nearly doubling the typical performance of 3.88%. This correlation suggests that Bitcoin’s performance following a sharp DXY retracement aligns with historical broader market trends, reinforcing the argument for a delayed but inevitable positive response.

Conclusion

The current decline in the US Dollar Strength Index represents a rare and historically bullish Bitcoin buy signal. Although BTC’s immediate price action remains weak, historical precedents suggest that a period of consolidation will likely be followed by a significant rally. Especially when reinforced by observing the same response in indexes such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the broader macroeconomic environment is setting up favorably for BTC.

Explore live data, charts, indicators, and in-depth research to stay ahead of Bitcoin’s price action at Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Bitcoin price fluctuations are frequently evaluated using on-chain metrics, technical indicators, and macroeconomic trends. However, one of the most underappreciated yet significant factors in Bitcoin’s price action is Global Liquidity. Many investors may be underutilizing this metric or even misunderstanding how it impacts BTC’s cyclical trends.

Impact on Bitcoin

With increasing discussions on platforms like Twitter (X) and analysts dissecting liquidity charts, understanding the relationship between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin has become crucial for traders and long-term investors alike. However, recent divergences suggest that traditional interpretations might require a more nuanced approach.

Global M2 money supply refers to the total liquid money supply, including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. Traditionally, when Global M2 expands, capital seeks higher-yielding assets, including Bitcoin, equities, and commodities. Conversely, when M2 contracts, risk assets often decline in value due to tighter liquidity conditions.

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Historically, we’ve seen Bitcoin’s price follow the Global M2 expansion, rising when liquidity increases and suffering during contractions. However, in this cycle, we’ve seen a deviation: despite a steady increase in Global M2, Bitcoin’s price action has shown inconsistencies.

Year-on-Year Change

Rather than simply tracking the absolute value of Global M2, a more insightful approach is to analyze its year-on-year rate of change. This method accounts for the velocity of liquidity expansion or contraction, revealing a clearer correlation with Bitcoin’s performance.

When we compare the Bitcoin Year-on-Year Return (YoY) with Global M2 YoY Change, a much stronger relationship emerges. Bitcoin’s strongest bull runs align with periods of rapid liquidity expansion, while contractions precede price declines or prolonged consolidation phases.

View Live Chart

For example, during Bitcoin’s consolidation phase in early 2025, Global M2 was steadily increasing, but its rate of change was flat. Only when M2’s expansion accelerates noticeably can Bitcoin break out towards new highs.

Liquidity Lag

Another key observation is that Global Liquidity does not impact Bitcoin instantly. Research suggests that Bitcoin lags behind Global Liquidity changes by approximately 10 weeks. By shifting the Global Liquidity indicator forward by 10 weeks, the correlation with Bitcoin strengthens significantly. However, further optimization suggests that the most accurate lag is around 56 to 60 days, or approximately two months.

Bitcoin Outlook

Throughout most of 2025, Global Liquidity has been in a flattening phase following a significant expansion in late 2024 that propelled Bitcoin to new highs. This flattening coincided with Bitcoin’s consolidation and retracement to around $80,000. However, if historical trends hold, a recent resurgence in liquidity growth should translate into another leg up for BTC by late March.

Conclusion

Monitoring Global Liquidity is an essential macro indicator for anticipating Bitcoin’s trajectory. However, rather than relying on static M2 data, focusing on its rate of change and understanding the two-month lag effect offers a much more precise predictive framework.

As Global economic conditions evolve and central banks adjust their monetary policies, Bitcoin’s price action will continue to be influenced by liquidity trends. The coming weeks will be pivotal; Bitcoin could be poised for a major move if Global Liquidity continues its renewed acceleration.

Enjoyed this? Explore more on Bitcoin price shifts and market cycles in our recent guide to mastering Bitcoin on-chain data.

Explore live data, charts, indicators, and in-depth research to stay ahead of Bitcoin’s price action at Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.