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Bad news Bitcoin bulls, the long-hoped-for retail is already here: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin bulls who still think the cycle peak has yet to come as retail investors haven’t piled in yet might be using an outdated playbook, according to a crypto executive.
“The idea that the cycle isn’t over just because onchain retail activity is absent needs reconsideration,” CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said in a March 19 X post.
Ju said that those tracking retail movements using only onchain metrics will not have seen the full picture.
“Retail is likely entering through ETFs — the paper Bitcoin layer — which doesn’t show up onchain,” Ju said.
“This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing directly to exchange deposit wallets,” he added, noting that 80% of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows come from retail investors — a trend that Binance analysts already once observed in October last year.
Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, inflows have totaled around $35.88 billion. Source: Farside
At the time, the analysts said most of the ETF buying likely came from retail investors moving their holdings from wallets and exchanges into funds with more regulatory protection.
Ju was responding to counter-arguments over his earlier prediction on X that the “Bitcoin bull cycle is over” on March 17.
“I’ve been calling for a bull market over the past two years, even when indicators were borderline. Sorry to change my view, but it now looks pretty clear that we’re entering a bear market,” he said.
Ju explained that certain indicators are showing a lack of new liquidity, which is likely being driven by macro factors.
He also clarified when he said the bull cycle was over, he meant Bitcoin could take “6-12 months” to break its all-time high, not that it’s about to crash.
Related: Bitcoin is just seeing a ‘normal correction,’ cycle peak is yet to come: Analysts
Traders often look at retail investor activity to spot signs of exhaustion or as a signal to start selling when the market appears overheated.
There are several sentiment indicators which help market participants understand the level of retail interest in the market. One of these is the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, reading a “Fear” score of 31, down 18 points from its “Neutral” score of 49 yesterday.
Other common signals used to track the level of retail interest in the crypto market include Google search trends for “crypto” and related keywords and the popularity of crypto applications in major app stores worldwide.
While the Google search score for “crypto” worldwide was at a score of 100 during the week of Jan. 19 – 25, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $109,000 and US President Donald Trump’s inauguration, it has since declined by almost 62%.
The amount of searches on Google for “crypto” has declined almost 62% since the end of January. Source: Google Trends
At the time of publication, the Google search score for “crypto” stands at 38, with Bitcoin trading 22% below its January all-time high.
Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Once, long ago, cryptocurrency companies operated comfortably in the US. In that quaint, bygone era, they would often conduct funding events called “initial coin offerings,” and then use those raised funds to try to do things in the real and blockchain world. Now, they largely do this “offshore” through foreign entities while geofencing the United States. The effect of this change has been dramatic: Practically all major cryptocurrency issuers started in the US now include some off-shore foundation arm. These entities create significant domestic challenges. They are expensive, difficult to operate, and leave many crucial questions about governance and regulation only half answered. Many in the industry yearn to “re-shore,” but until this year, there has been no path to do so. Now, though, that could change. New crypto-rulemaking is on the horizon, members of the Trump family have floated the idea of eliminating capital gains tax on cryptocurrency, and many US federal agencies have dropped enforcement actions against crypto firms. For the first time in four years, the government has signaled to the cryptocurrency industry that it is open to deal. There may soon be a path to return to the US. The story of US offshoring traces back to 2017. Crypto was still young, and the Securities and Exchange Commission had taken a hands-off approach to the regulation of these new products. That all changed when the commission released a document called “The DAO Report.” For the first time, the SEC argued that the homebrew cryptocurrency tokens that had developed since the 2009 Bitcoin white paper were actually regulated instruments called securities. This prohibition was not total — around the same time as The DAO Report’s launch, SEC Director of Corporate Finance William Hinman publicly expressed his views that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) were not securities. To clarify this distinction, the commission released a framework for digital assets in 2019, which identified relevant factors to evaluate a token’s security status and noted that “the stronger their presence, the less likely the Howey test is met.” Relying on this guidance, many speculated that functional “consumptive” uses of tokens would insulate projects from securities concerns. In parallel, complicated tax implications were crystallizing. Tax advisers reached a consensus that, unlike traditional financing instruments like simple agreements for future equity (SAFEs) or preferred equity, token sales were fully taxable events in the US. Simple agreements for future tokens (SAFTs) — contracts to issue future tokens — faced little better tax treatment, with the taxable event merely deferred until the tokens were released. This meant that a token sale by a US company would generate a massive tax liability. Related: Trade war puts Bitcoin’s status as safe-haven asset in doubt Projects tried in good faith to adhere to these guidelines. Lawyers extracted principles and advised clients to follow them. Some bit the bullet and paid the tax rather than contriving to create a foreign presence for a US project. All this chugged along for a few years. The SEC brought some major enforcement actions, like its moves against Ripple and Telegram, and shut down other projects, like Diem. But many founders still believed they could operate legally in the US if they stuck to the script. Then, events conspired to knock this uneasy equilibrium out of balance. SEC Chair Gary Gensler entered the scene in 2021, Sam Bankman-Fried blew up FTX in 2022, and an unheralded opinion from Judge Paul Barbadoro came out of the sleepy US District Court for the District of New Hampshire in a case called SEC v. LBRY. The LBRY case is a small one, affecting what is, by all accounts, a minor crypto project, but the application of law that came out of it had a dramatic effect on the practice of cryptocurrency law and, by extension, the avenues open to founders. Judge Barbadoro conceded that the token may have consumptive uses but held that “nothing in the case law suggests that a token with both consumptive and speculative uses cannot be sold as an investment contract.” He went on to say that he could not “reject the SEC’s contention that LBRY offered [the token] as a security simply because some [token] purchases were made with consumptive intent.” Because of the “economic realities,” Barbadoro held that it did not matter if some “may have acquired LBC in part for consumptive purposes.” This was devastating. The holding in LBRY is, essentially, that the factors proposed in the SEC framework largely do not matter in actual securities disputes. In LBRY, Judge Barbadoro found that the consumptive uses may be present, but the purchasers’ expectation of profit predominated. And this, it turned out, meant that virtually any token offering might be considered a security. It meant that any evidence that a token was marketed as offering potential profit could be used against you. Even the supposition that it seemed likely that people bought it to profit could be fatal. This had a chilling effect. The LBRY case and related case law destabilized the cryptocurrency project landscape. Instead of a potential framework to work within, there remained just a single vestige of hope to operate legally in the US: Move offshore and decentralize. Even the SEC admitted that Bitcoin and ETH were not securities because they were decentralized. Rather than having any promoter who could be responsible for their sale, they were the products of diffuse networks, attributable to no one. Projects in 2022 and 2023 were left with little option but to attempt to decentralize. Related: Ripple celebrates SEC’s dropped appeal, but crypto rules still not set Inevitably, the operations would begin in the United States. A few developers would create a project in a small apartment. As they found success, they wanted to fundraise — and in crypto, when you fundraise, investors demand tokens. But it’s illegal to sell tokens in the US. So, their VC or lawyer would advise them to establish a foundation in a more favorable jurisdiction, such as the Cayman Islands, Zug in Switzerland, or Panama. That foundation could be set up to “wrap” a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), which would have governance mechanisms tied to tokens. Through that entity or another offshore entity, they would either sell tokens under a Regulation S exemption from US securities law or simply give them away in an airdrop. In this way, projects hoped they could develop liquid markets and a sizable market cap, eventually achieving the “decentralization” that might allow them to operate legally as an entity in the US again. Several crypto exchanges were incorporated in friendlier jurisdictions in 2023. Source: CoinGecko These offshore structures didn’t just provide a compliance function — they also offered tax advantages. Because foundations have no owners, they aren’t subject to the “controlled foreign corporation” rules, under which foreign corporations get indirectly taxed in the US through their US shareholders. Well-advised foundations also ensured they engaged in no US business activities, preserving their “offshore” status. Presto: They became amazing tax vehicles, unburdened by direct US taxation because they operate exclusively offshore and are shielded from indirect US taxation because they are ownerless. Even better, this arrangement often gave them a veneer of legitimacy, making it difficult for regulators to pin down a single controlling party. After the formation, the US enterprise would become a rump “labs” or “development” company that earned income through licensing software and IP to these new offshore entities — waiting for the day when everything would be different, checking the mail for Wells notices, and feeling a bit jumpy. So, it wasn’t just regulation that drove crypto offshore — it was hope. A thousand projects wanted to find a way to operate legally in the United States, and offshore decentralization was the only path. Now, that may change. With President Donald Trump in office, the hallways of 100 F Street in Washington, DC may just be thawing. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has taken the mantle and is leading the SEC’s Crypto Task Force. In recent weeks, Peirce has expressed interest in offering prospective and retroactive relief for token issuers and creating a regulatory third way where token launches are treated as “non-securities” through the SEC’s Section 28 exemptive authority. At the same time, evolutions in law are beginning to open the door for onshore operations. David Kerr of Cowrie LLP and Miles Jennings of a16z have pioneered a new corporate form, the decentralized unincorporated nonprofit association (DUNA), that may allow autonomous organizations to function as legal entities in US states like Wyoming. Eric Trump has proposed favorable tax treatments for cryptocurrency tokens, which, though it might be a stretch, could offer a massive draw to bring assets back onshore. And without waiting on any official shifts in regulation, tax attorneys have come up with more efficient fundraising approaches, such as token warrants, to help projects navigate the existing system. As a16z recently put it in a meeting with Commissioner Peirce’s Crypto Task Force, “If the SEC were to provide guidance on distributions, it would stem the tide of [tokens] only being issued to non-U.S. persons — a trend that is effectively offshoring ownership of blockchain technologies developed in the U.S.” Maybe this time, they’ll listen. Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge Stablecoin issuer Tether is reportedly in talks with a Big Four accounting firm to audit its assets reserves and verify that its USDT (USDT) stablecoin is backed at a 1:1 ratio. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino reportedly said the audit process would be more straightforward under pro-crypto US President Donald Trump. It comes after rising industry concerns over a potential FTX-style liquidity crisis for Tether due to its lack of third-party audits. “If the President of the United States says this is top priority for the US, Big Four auditing firms will have to listen, so we are very happy with that,” Ardoino told Reuters on March 21. “It’s our top priority,” said Ardoino. It was reported that Tether is currently subject to quarterly reports but not a full independent annual audit, which is much more extensive and provides more assurance to investors and regulators. However, Ardoino did not specify which of the Big Four firms — PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), Ernst & Young (EY), Deloitte, or KPMG — he plans to engage. Tether recorded a profit of $13.7 billion in 2024. Source: Paolo Ardoino Tether’s USDT maintains its stable value by claiming to be pegged to the US dollar at a 1:1 ratio. This means each USDT token is backed by reserves equivalent to its circulating supply. These reserves include traditional currency, cash equivalents and other assets. Earlier this month, Tether hired Simon McWilliams as chief financial officer in preparation for a full financial audit. In September 2024, Cyber Capital founder Justin Bons was among those in the industry who voiced concerns about Tether’s lack of transparency. “[Tether is] one of the biggest existential threats to crypto. As we have to trust they hold $118B in collateral without proof! Even after the CFTC fined Tether for lying about their reserves in 2021,” Bons said. Related: Tether freezes $27M USDT on sanctioned Russian exchange Garantex Around the same time, Consumers’ Research, a consumer protection group, published a report criticizing Tether for its lack of transparency surrounding its US dollar reserves. Just three years prior, in 2021, the United States Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Tether a $41 million civil monetary penalty for lying about USDT being fully backed by reserves. Meanwhile, more recently, Tether has voiced disappointment over new European regulations that have forced exchanges like Crypto.com to delist USDT and nine other tokens to comply with MiCA. “It is disappointing to see the rushed actions brought on by statements which do little to clarify the basis for such moves,” a spokesperson for Tether told Cointelegraph. Cointelegraph reached out to Tether but did not receive a response by time of publication. Magazine: Dummies guide to native rollups: L2s as secure as Ethereum itself John Reed Stark, the former director of the Office of Internet Enforcement at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), pushed back against the idea of regulatory reform at the first SEC crypto roundtable. The former regulator said the Securities Act of 1933 and 1934 should not be changed to accommodate digital assets and urged that digital assets do not escape the definition of securities under the current laws. The first-ever SEC crypto roundtable. Source: SEC “The people buying crypto are not collectors. We all know that they are investors, and the mission of the SEC is to protect investors,” Stark said. The former official added: “The volume of case law has developed so quickly because of all these crypto firms. They went for this sort of delay, delay, delay, idea, and they hired the best law firms in the world, and these law firms all fought the SEC with incredible briefs.” “I have read every single one of them. And they lost just about, I would argue, every single time,” he continued. Stark concluded that he saw no innovation in digital assets or cryptocurrencies compared to previous online revolutions, such as the debut of the iPhone. John Reed Stark, pictured on the far right, arguing against comprehensive regulatory reform. Source: SEC Related: SEC’s deadline extension is a ‘fork’ in case against Coinbase — John Reed Stark Stark has been one of the most vocal opponents of cryptocurrencies and the digital asset industry, often criticizing the industry for a lack of transparency and accountability. In February 2024, the former SEC official characterized a sponsorship deal between the Dallas Mavericks — a National Basketball Association (NBA) team — and crypto firm Voyager as an agreement with a “heroin manufacturing firm.” Stark later said that the government agency’s regulation by enforcement under former chairman Gary Gensler was warranted and added that cryptocurrency must conform to existing laws rather than the law evolving to embrace the future of money. Stark’s anti-crypto stance has been criticized by industry executives and investors as unhinged. 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Crypto firms tried to comply in the US
How SEC v. LBRY muddied waters
Regulation and hope drove firms offshore
A slow turning
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Tether to produce first full audit after scrutiny
Industry concerns over Tether’s lack of audits
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John Reed Stark: one of crypto’s staunchest critics
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