US President Trump’s outspoken acceptance of near-term economic hardship has placed risk assets—including Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market—under mounting pressure. According to a thread by The Kobeissi Letter on X, President Trump’s strategy revolves around tolerating significant “short term pain” in order to drive down inflation and facilitate the refinancing of over $9 trillion in US debt.

Will Crypto Survive Trump’s ‘Short-Term Pain’ Strategy?

The impact on cryptocurrencies has been immediate and pronounced. While US equities have shed an estimated $5 trillion in market value this year, digital assets have also suffered steep losses. Since President Trump’s inauguration on January 21, Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by approximately -23%, Ethereum (ETH) has tumbled by roughly -43% and the broader crypto market has experienced even more dramatic price drops.

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Although high volatility is nothing new in crypto, the synchronized downturn suggests that crypto assets are not immune to macroeconomic forces. The Kobeissi Letter adds, “Based on our research, President Trump made this conclusion BEFORE inauguration. However, he began formally articulating it on March 6th. Below is the headline that destroyed investor confidence in 2025. President Trump is no longer the ‘stock market’s President’ (for now).”

The Kobeissi Letter points to March 9 as the date President Trump further confirmed his stance by noting that America is in a “period of transition” and that it will “take a little time,” implying a willingness to tolerate near-term market turbulence. During this period, Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s statement on March 6—“Stock market not driving outcomes for this admin”—was followed by Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remark, “Not concerned about a little volatility.”

Although The Kobeissi Letter’s analysis notes that the administration’s viewpoint solidified before inauguration, it cites President Trump’s urgent focus on the year 2025, when $9.2 trillion in US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced. The thread states, “First, as we have previously noted, the US is facing a massive refinancing task. In 2025, $9.2 TRILLION of US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced. The quickest way to LOWER rates ahead of this colossal refinancing would be a recession.”

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Beyond debt concerns, The Kobeissi Letter also highlights the administration’s drive to reduce oil prices and the US trade deficit as part of the same economic calculation. Since President Trump took office, oil has fallen by over 20%. “Furthermore, a clearly defined part of President Trump’s strategy has been to LOWER oil prices. Oil prices are down 20%+ since Trump took office. This morning, Citigroup said oil prices falling to $53 would lower inflation to 2%. What would lower oil prices? A recession.”

Meanwhile, the administration’s extensive use of tariffs, which The Kobeissi Letter describes as “levying tariffs on almost ALL US trade partners,” is chipping away at GDP growth estimates, further hinting that a deliberate slowdown is in motion.

The Kobeissi Letter also notes, “On top of this, DOGE and Trump are attempting to cut TONS of government jobs. These are the same jobs that have accounted for much of the recent job ‘growth’ in the US. Government jobs have risen by 2 million over the last 4.5 years. Cutting these jobs will spur a recession.” DOGE leader Elon Musk appears resigned to short-term declines. Even after Tesla (TSLA) recorded its seventh-largest historical drop on March 10, Musk posted that “It will be fine long-term.”

For crypto traders and investors, the “short term pain” scenario by Trump is currently dictating the price action. The question, the analysts from The Kobeissi Letter posit, is whether this will lead to a more favorable economic landscape in the long run. “Is the ‘short term pain’ worth the ‘long term gain’ in President Trump’s economic strategy?”.

At press time, the BTC price remained under heavy downward pressure and traded at $82,000.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

Dogecoin is at a critical point, with its price hovering around $0.16. Traders are watching closely, as this support level could be the deciding factor in whether the meme coin takes off or tumbles further. If history is any guide, maintaining this level could spark a rally, while losing it may bring more pain.

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Dogecoin: Key Level To Watch

The $0.16 support level is not just a random number—it has been a crucial zone for Dogecoin. If it stays above this mark, there’s a strong chance of a rebound. Past price movements suggest that Dogecoin tends to climb after testing key supports.

Some analysts believe that holding this level could lead to a breakout toward the $0.20–$0.30 range in the near term.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has weighed in, stating that Dogecoin’s price is following an ascending parallel channel. He believes that if the $0.16 support holds, the meme coin could surge toward $2.74 or even as high as $6.24 in a strong bullish scenario.

However, a breakdown below this level could invalidate this outlook and send the price lower.

#Dogecoin $DOGE is nearing a crucial support level at the lower boundary of this channel. Holding above $0.16 could fuel a strong rebound! pic.twitter.com/foCUdbnTFZ

— Ali (@ali_charts) March 9, 2025

Traders Adjust Price Targets

The market mood is shifting. Some traders are setting their profit targets between $0.70 and $0.80, looking for another big move. Even with recent setbacks, many people still believe that Dogecoin will reach $1.

Even if this seems far-fetched, anyone who recalls Dogecoin’s meteoric climb in 2021 knows that when momentum builds, it may surprise.

Short-term traders, meanwhile, are exercising caution and holding off on making significant trades until they receive clear signs.

The course of the next few days may determine if Dogecoin continues to trend upward or remains in its present range.

History Hints At A Possible Rally

Dogecoin’s past performance shows a pattern of major price swings after testing strong support zones. After going up from key marks in 2017 and 2021, the coin made a lot of money.

If things keep going the way they are, some experts think Dogecoin could go over $1.75 in its next bull run.

Still, it’s never easy to tell how crypto will move. External factors, such as how the market feels, Bitcoin’s price movement, and broader economic trends, will also affect the meme coin’s price route.

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Current Price Action

Currently selling at around $0.174, Dogecoin has dropped about 7% over the previous day. The low dropped to $0.16; the intraday high hit $0.1878. The meme crypto’s market capitalization now is almost $26.23 billion. Technical indicators suggest a possible rebound, but that depends on whether buyers step in at this critical level.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView

Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao has suggested that the highly anticipated Altseason isn’t here yet as most altcoins continue bleeding, while some market watchers consider the worst might be over soon.

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CZ Says There’s No Altseason Yet

On Friday, Changpeng Zhao, also known as CZ, responded to an X user asking when the Altseason will happen. The Binance founder pointed out the price tracking and market data website CoinMarketCap (CMC), which recently added an “Altcoin Season Index.”

CZ highlighted that “of the top 100 altcoins,” very few have outperformed Bitcoin (BTC) in the past three months, suggesting that the Altseason won’t happen yet.

As the website states, the CMC Altcoin Season Index page “provides real-time insights into whether the cryptocurrency market is currently in Altcoin Season,” based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins against the flagship crypto over the past 90 days.

Under this metric, an Altseason is in if 75% of the top 100 altcoins outperform BTC during the established period. To CZ, “This is a tough ranking system,” as he considers that 50 would be a good score for Altcoins.

The CMC index page shows a score of 14/100, with only 14 altcoins outperforming BTC since early December. Some of the tokens in this list include Monero (XRM), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Pi (PI), Mantra (OM), Berachain (BERA), and the official Trump memecoin (TRUMP).

Leading cryptocurrencies of 2024, like SUI and Solana (SOL), show 37% to 41% price decreases in the past 90 days. Meanwhile, memecoin sensations like dogwifhat (WIF), PEPE, FLOKI, and BONK have bled between 70% and 80% during this period.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe also noted that altcoins have had an overall negative performance on higher timeframes despite some recent price rallies. “Massive green day on some Altcoins, they are up 2%! Then, you zoom out, and you zoom out, and you zoom out,” he asserted.

Altcoins Bottom Could Be Near

Altcoin Sherpa stated that altcoins were in “about the same or worse” positions during the Summer 2024 retrace, pointing out that “things were also pretty bleak overall and then we saw some strong bounces in August.” However, he noted that, unlike last year, the market doesn’t have a “Trump Pump coming.”

Recently, some of the top cryptocurrencies saw a significant price increase after US President Donald Trump announced a strategic reserve that would include SOL, XRP, Cardano (ADA), Ethereum (ETH), and BTC.

Nonetheless, after the March 6 executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a “Digital Asset Stockpile,” the White House AI and Crypto Czar, David Sacks, clarified that the previously named altcoins were used as references for the most valuable tokens in the market.

Sherpa considers that the market’s bottom is close, but “we still also probably have the chop period to get through” before any substantial recovery.

On the contrary, some industry figures have also commented on altcoins’ overall performance this cycle, suggesting that the Altseason already started but will be different from previous cycles.

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Recently, CryptoQuant’s founder and CEO, Ki Young Ju, stated that the Altseason had begun. He affirmed there will not be a direct Bitcoin-to-altcoins rotation this cycle, as BTC dominance isn’t the key metric that defines it.

To the CEO, trading volume is the metric that defines it this time. Ju also pointed out that this will be a very selective and challenging altseason, with only a few altcoins with strong narratives expected to thrive.

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com