Proof-of-work cryptocurrency mining does not trigger federal securities laws, according to a Thursday staff statement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which told mining operators they do not need to register their transactions with the regulator.

The statement, published by the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance, declared that both solo proof-of-work crypto mining and pooled proof-of-work crypto mining do not meet the definition of a securities transaction under the Howey Test — the legal framework used to determine whether a transaction represents an investment contract — because they are “not undertaken with a reasonable expectation of profits to be derived from the entrepreneurial or managerial efforts of others.”

The statement puts to rest any lingering fears that the SEC’s enforcement division could turn its gaze on proof-of-work crypto miners. Though the agency, under the leadership of former Chair Gary Gensler, begrudgingly admitted that bitcoin was a commodity rather than a security, the agency’s enforcement suit against Utah-based Green United, an alleged ponzi scheme accused of defrauding customers in a cloud mining scheme, prompted concerns among some in the industry that the agency would eventually crack down on legitimate crypto miners.

The SEC said that Thursday’s statement is “part of an effort to provide greater clarity on the application of the federal securities laws to crypto assets” — something the industry has been pushing for for years. Under the new leadership of Acting Chair Mark Uyeda, who established a Crypto Task Force spearheaded by crypto-friendly Commissioner Hester Peirce, the agency has rapidly begun reversing course on its approach to crypto, dropping lawsuits and investigations started under Gensler and repealing the controversial Staff Accounting Bulletin 121.

Thursday’s staff statement comes shortly after the SEC put out a similar staff statement in February declaring most memecoins to be outside the regulator’s jurisdiction.

Read more: As Congress Talks Up Its Earth-Shaking Bill, Regulators Are Already at Work

Under its new leadership, the SEC has signaled a much greater willingness to work with the crypto industry to craft better, clearer regulations moving forward. On Friday, the agency will host a roundtable discussion on what makes a cryptocurrency a security – the first in a series of roundtable discussions between the regulator and industry participants.

Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving, and its once-predictable four-year cycles may no longer hold the same relevance. In a recent conversation with Matt Crosby, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Mitchell Askew, Head Analyst at Blockware Solutions, shared his perspective on how Bitcoin ETFs, mining advancements, and institutional adoption are reshaping the asset’s price behavior.

Watch the Full Interview:

According to Askew, Bitcoin’s historical pattern of parabolic price increases followed by steep drawdowns is changing as institutional investors enter the market. At the same time, the mining industry is becoming more efficient and stable, creating new dynamics that affect Bitcoin’s supply and price trends.

Bitcoin’s Market Cycles Are Fading

Askew suggests that Bitcoin may no longer experience the extreme cycles of past bull and bear markets. Historically, halving events reduced miner rewards, triggered supply shocks, and fueled rapid price increases, often followed by corrections of 70% or more. However, the increasing presence of institutional investors is leading to a more structured, macro-driven market.

He explains that Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations are bringing consistent demand into Bitcoin, reducing the likelihood of extreme boom-and-bust price movements. Unlike retail traders, who tend to buy in euphoria and panic-sell during downturns, institutions are more likely to sell into strength and accumulate Bitcoin on dips.

Askew also notes that since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, price movements have become more measured, with longer consolidation periods before continued growth. This suggests Bitcoin is beginning to behave more like a traditional financial asset, rather than a speculative high-volatility market.

The Role of Bitcoin Mining in Price Stability

As a mining analyst at Blockware Solutions, Askew provides insight into how Bitcoin mining dynamics influence price trends. He notes that while many assume a rising hash rate is always bullish, the reality is more complex.

In the short term, increasing hash rate can be bearish, as it leads to higher competition among miners and more Bitcoin being sold to cover electricity costs. However, over the long term, a rising hash rate reflects greater investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and network security.

Another key observation from Askew is that Bitcoin’s hash rate growth lags behind price growth by 3-12 months. When Bitcoin’s price rises sharply, mining profitability increases, prompting more capital to flow into mining infrastructure. However, deploying new mining rigs and setting up facilities takes time, leading to a delayed impact on hash rate expansion.

Why Mining Profitability Is Stabilizing

Askew also highlights that mining hardware efficiency is reaching a plateau, which has significant implications for miners and Bitcoin’s supply structure.

In Bitcoin’s early years, new mining machines offered dramatic efficiency improvements, forcing miners to upgrade hardware every 1-2 years to remain competitive. Today, however, new models are only about 10% more efficient than the previous generation. As a result, mining rigs can now remain profitable for 4-8 years, reducing the pressure on miners to continuously reinvest in new equipment.

Electricity costs remain the biggest factor in mining profitability, and Askew explains that miners are increasingly seeking low-cost power sources to maintain long-term sustainability. Many companies, including Blockware Solutions, operate in rural U.S. locations with stable energy prices, ensuring better profitability even during market downturns.

Could the U.S. Government Start Accumulating Bitcoin?

Another important discussion point raised by Askew is the potential for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Some policymakers have proposed that the U.S. government accumulate Bitcoin in the same way it holds gold reserves, recognizing its potential as a global store of value.

Askew explains that if such a reserve were implemented, it could create a massive supply shock, pushing Bitcoin’s price significantly higher. However, he cautions that government action is slow and would likely involve gradual accumulation rather than sudden large-scale purchases.

Even if implemented over several years, such a program could further reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trajectory by removing available supply from the market.

Bitcoin Price Predictions & Long-Term Outlook

Based on current trends, Askew remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory, though he believes the market’s behavior is shifting toward more gradual, sustained growth rather than extreme speculative cycles.

Bitcoin Price Targets for 2025:

• Base Case: $150K – $200K
• Bull Case: $250K+

Long-Term (10-Year) Forecast:

• Base Case: $500K – $1M
• Bull Case: Bitcoin flips gold’s $20T market cap → $1M+ per BTC

Askew sees several key factors driving Bitcoin’s price over the next decade, including:
Steady institutional demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries.
Reduced mining hardware upgrades, leading to a more stable industry.
Potential government involvement in Bitcoin reserves.
Macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates, inflation, and global liquidity cycles.

He emphasizes that as Bitcoin’s market structure matures, it may become less susceptible to sharp price swings, making it a more attractive long-term asset for institutions.

Conclusion: A More Mature Bitcoin Market

According to Askew, Bitcoin is undergoing a structural shift that will shape its price trends for years to come. With institutional investors reducing market volatility, mining innovations improving efficiency, and potential government adoption, Bitcoin’s market behavior is beginning to resemble that of gold or other long-term financial assets.

While dramatic parabolic runs may become less frequent, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory appears stronger and more sustainable than ever. Askew’s perspective reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset—it is evolving into a key financial instrument with increasing global adoption.

If you’re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The President of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, raised the possibility yesterday that the Eastern European country could begin mining cryptocurrencies.

“Look at this mining. More and more people are turning to me. If it is profitable for us, let’s do it. We have excess electricity. Let them make this cryptocurrency and so on,” Lukashenko told Alexei Kushnarenko, the nation’s new minister of energy, according to Belarusian media outlet Belta.

The news comes as the U.S. government is studying the possibility of creating a national strategic crypto reserve that could include cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), solana (SOL), ripple (XRP) and cardano (ADA).

Lukashenko mentioned the White House’s interest in crypto. “You see the path the world is going. And especially the largest economy in the world. They announced yesterday that they will keep [a crypto] reserve,” he said.

“Therefore, there will be demand for them. Well, maybe we should do it ourselves,” Lukashenko said.

Belarus wouldn’t be the first nation to mine cryptocurrencies. The Kingdom of Bhutan, with its abundance of hydropower, already has more than 100 megawatts (MW) of operational bitcoin mining infrastructure and is set to get another 500MW worth of power online. The country currently holds $950 million in bitcoin, according to Arkham Intelligence

El Salvador, for its part, uses geothermal energy to mine bitcoin, though in smaller quantities.
Disclaimer: The information in this article was translated using Google Translate from a foreign language source.