US President Trump’s outspoken acceptance of near-term economic hardship has placed risk assets—including Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market—under mounting pressure. According to a thread by The Kobeissi Letter on X, President Trump’s strategy revolves around tolerating significant “short term pain” in order to drive down inflation and facilitate the refinancing of over $9 trillion in US debt.

Will Crypto Survive Trump’s ‘Short-Term Pain’ Strategy?

The impact on cryptocurrencies has been immediate and pronounced. While US equities have shed an estimated $5 trillion in market value this year, digital assets have also suffered steep losses. Since President Trump’s inauguration on January 21, Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by approximately -23%, Ethereum (ETH) has tumbled by roughly -43% and the broader crypto market has experienced even more dramatic price drops.

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Although high volatility is nothing new in crypto, the synchronized downturn suggests that crypto assets are not immune to macroeconomic forces. The Kobeissi Letter adds, “Based on our research, President Trump made this conclusion BEFORE inauguration. However, he began formally articulating it on March 6th. Below is the headline that destroyed investor confidence in 2025. President Trump is no longer the ‘stock market’s President’ (for now).”

The Kobeissi Letter points to March 9 as the date President Trump further confirmed his stance by noting that America is in a “period of transition” and that it will “take a little time,” implying a willingness to tolerate near-term market turbulence. During this period, Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s statement on March 6—“Stock market not driving outcomes for this admin”—was followed by Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remark, “Not concerned about a little volatility.”

Although The Kobeissi Letter’s analysis notes that the administration’s viewpoint solidified before inauguration, it cites President Trump’s urgent focus on the year 2025, when $9.2 trillion in US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced. The thread states, “First, as we have previously noted, the US is facing a massive refinancing task. In 2025, $9.2 TRILLION of US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced. The quickest way to LOWER rates ahead of this colossal refinancing would be a recession.”

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Beyond debt concerns, The Kobeissi Letter also highlights the administration’s drive to reduce oil prices and the US trade deficit as part of the same economic calculation. Since President Trump took office, oil has fallen by over 20%. “Furthermore, a clearly defined part of President Trump’s strategy has been to LOWER oil prices. Oil prices are down 20%+ since Trump took office. This morning, Citigroup said oil prices falling to $53 would lower inflation to 2%. What would lower oil prices? A recession.”

Meanwhile, the administration’s extensive use of tariffs, which The Kobeissi Letter describes as “levying tariffs on almost ALL US trade partners,” is chipping away at GDP growth estimates, further hinting that a deliberate slowdown is in motion.

The Kobeissi Letter also notes, “On top of this, DOGE and Trump are attempting to cut TONS of government jobs. These are the same jobs that have accounted for much of the recent job ‘growth’ in the US. Government jobs have risen by 2 million over the last 4.5 years. Cutting these jobs will spur a recession.” DOGE leader Elon Musk appears resigned to short-term declines. Even after Tesla (TSLA) recorded its seventh-largest historical drop on March 10, Musk posted that “It will be fine long-term.”

For crypto traders and investors, the “short term pain” scenario by Trump is currently dictating the price action. The question, the analysts from The Kobeissi Letter posit, is whether this will lead to a more favorable economic landscape in the long run. “Is the ‘short term pain’ worth the ‘long term gain’ in President Trump’s economic strategy?”.

At press time, the BTC price remained under heavy downward pressure and traded at $82,000.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

In an X post published yesterday, crypto analyst Matthew Hyland highlighted that according to the weekly timeframe chart, Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to test the support level between $69,000 to $74,000 in the coming months. 

Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?

Hyland noted that BTC’s weekly resistance level currently hovers around the $90,500 level. The analyst emphasized that if BTC has a weekly close above $89,000, then it may indicate that the market bottom is in. He added:

If we do get a weekly close above this area ($89,000 to $91,000), I think the low is in for Bitcoin, and we are not going down to this area.

To recall, BTC last traded above $89,000 earlier this month on March 9. From there, the cryptocurrency experienced a breakdown to lower price levels, primarily due to rising macroeconomic uncertainties due to US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs on numerous countries.

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According to data from cryptocurrency exchange Binance, after failing to defend the $89,000 level, BTC ended up falling as low as $76,606 on March 10. Since then, the digital asset has made slight recovery, buoyed by lower than anticipated US CPI inflation data and is currently trading in the low $80,000 level.

BTC Faces Strong Resistance At $86,100

Similarly, in a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, analyst Yonsei_dent highlighted the significance of short-term holder (STH) Realized Price in determining the digital asset’s future price trajectory.

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For the uninitiated, Bitcoin’s Realized Price refers to the average acquisition cost of investors while STH refers to holders who have held BTC for less than six months. These investors are typically more sensitive to market movements.

The analyst remarked that the weighted average Realized Price for STHs who have held BTC for one week to six months lies around $91,800, suggesting that these investors are currently in a loss position.

The three months to six months STH cohort has a Realized Price of $86,100, denoting a strong resistance level for the digital asset in the short-term. Notably, this group of holders has the highest share of Realized Cap among STHs, hinting that selling pressure could magnify around this price level.

With regard to major support levels, long-term holders (LTH) with a holding time of six months to twelve months have a Realized Price of $63,700. The post adds:

The highest volume profile over the past year is concentrated around $64,000. This reinforces the idea that this area could serve as a strong support level.

If BTC fails to clear some of its immediate resistance levels, there is a high possibility that it may follow Arthur Hayes prediction of finding a bottom around $70,000. That said, several indicators suggest that BTC may be undervalued at its current market price. At press time, BTC trades at $81,745, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView.com

Ripple’s XRP, one of the top-performing cryptos last year, is trading between $2.15 and $2.30. The token’s current price is a far cry from its 52-week high of $3.38 last January 17th, which was spurred by the industry’s excitement over US President Donald Trump’s reelection. 

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Although XRP joins the downtrend of the broader crypto market, a few commentators and analysts expect that Ripple is due for a major rally. According to crypto analyst Egrag Crypto, Ripple’s XRP is set for another price run after it compares the asset’s current Elliot Wave structure with its 2017 fractals.

XRP Continues To Weather The Storm

Egrag Crypto’s latest price analysis and projection for XRP come as the altcoin and the broader crypto market slump. The Ripple’s coin is holding steady above the critical $2 price support, which suggests it follows the broad five-wave Elliott Wave chart. Traditionally, assets replicating the Elliott Wave structure often incur significant price action.

#XRP = Thread (1/7) #XRP: Double Digits This Cycle, Triple Digits Next!

The thread below about #XRP was shared in the Subscribers section on February 12, 2025.

We’ve built together the Full Elliot Wave Count to assess our next Targets:

Take an in-depth look at it! … pic.twitter.com/NKv00Y5MZD

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) March 12, 2025

Based on Egrag’s assessment, XRP is currently in the second wave of the Elliot Wave structure, which is traditionally defined by high price volatility and corrections.

Traders And Investors Must Watch Out For The Larger Wave Structure

In a Twitter/X post, Egrag explained that XRP is in its corrective wave two and is primed for a price run to double digits or even over $100.

The analysts elaborated that a Wave 2 often retraces a part of Wave 1, usually matching 50%, 76% or even 85.4% of the initial movement. Ripple’s XRP, he shares, is solidifying its hold in the correction phase.

The asset faces bearish pressure, and the market can expect a double bottom soon before it moves into its Wave 3. EGRAG warns that Wave 3 is the most aggressive part of the cycle, with more volatility.

Can XRP Hit $100 Or More?

Previously, XRP’s Wave 1 pattern submitted a huge 733% increase in price. And by using the Elliot Wave extension formula, the popular analyst projects that XRP’s Wave 3 can extend by 1.618x the gain of the first wave. Using this calculation, Egrag offers a potential surge of 1,185x, translating to XRP’s price range between $22 to $24.

Once XRP hits the peak of Wave 3, the fourth wave and a price correction follows. For this wage, the retracement level ranges between 14% to 38.2% of Wave 3. If this happens, Egrag predicts that XRP’s price can drop to $8.

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Wave 5 of the Elliot Wave follows, where price can be predicted using three methods. First, if XRP’s price grows between 1.236% and 1.618%, the asset’s price can hit between $32 and $48. Second, if Wave 5 replicates Wave 1, the price can be between $60 and $70. Third, if there’s a 61.8% extension of the movements of Waves 1 and 3, then there’s a chance that XRP’s price can hit $100.

Featured image from Medium, chart from TradingView