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Bitcoin Hovers Above $104K—Analyst Reveals What’s Next Based on Funding Rates

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Bitcoin currently appears to be taking a breather after achieving a new all-time high (ATH) above $109,000 earlier this week. So far, the asset has seen a slightly reduced upward momentum with the price just hovering above $104,000. 

However, despite the slowing upward momentum, Bitcoin’s recent performance has prompted renewed interest in the market. CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci has recently shared insights into Bitcoin’s price behavior and key market indicators, shedding light on potential future moves.

In a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake Platform, Kesmeci’s analysis focused on Binance Bitcoin Funding Rates, a metric that provides notable clues about market sentiment and dynamics.

By reviewing historical data from previous bull cycles, he identified three distinct phases that can serve as a framework for interpreting the current market environment.

What’s Next For Bitcoin Based On Funding Rates?

According to Kesmeci, during the 2020-2021 bull run, Binance Bitcoin Funding Rates moved through three distinct phases:

Phase 1 (July 2020): Funding rates remained stable at 0.01 for weeks before demand surged. This phase acted as the “calm before the storm,” leading Bitcoin from $9,000 to $12,000 as funding rates rose to 0.10.

Phase 2 (November 2020): After an initial rally, Bitcoin experienced a correction. Funding rates briefly turned negative before flipping positive, supporting Bitcoin’s climb from $12,000 to $19,000.

Phase 3 (December 2020): As Bitcoin surpassed its previous highs and crossed the $60,000 mark, funding rates climbed significantly, reflecting strong market support.

Binance Bitcoin Funding Rates.
Binance Bitcoin Funding Rates. | Source: TradingView

Currently, Kesmeci notes that Binance Bitcoin Funding Rates are at the baseline level of 0.01—consistent with the early stages of a bull cycle. The analyst wrote:

Analyzing recent data, I believe we’ve completed the first two phases of this bull cycle. For the third phase, I’ll be closely watching if the Binance Bitcoin Funding Rates exceed 0.01.

The analyst mentioned that a sustained rise above the 0.01 level would suggest heightened futures market activity and could lead to another significant upward move.

However, Kesmeci also cautions that elevated funding rates are often unsustainable, and markets tend to correct through “long squeeze” events that restore balance.

Key Metrics and Divergences in the Market

In a separate analysis, another CryptoQuant analyst TraderOasis explored several critical metrics, including the Coinbase Premium Index, open interest, and funding rates. These indicators give a picture of Bitcoin’s market health and potential direction.

TraderOasis highlighted a divergence between the Coinbase Premium Index and Bitcoin’s price movement. While the asset reached a new peak above $109,000, the Coinbase Premium Index formed a lower high. This lack of alignment raised concerns about the sustainability of the current price trend.

Moreover, a divergence between open interest and price also suggested that the market might lack the robust foundation needed for continued upward momentum. According to TraderOasis, a healthy uptrend requires these metrics to be more closely aligned, which would signal strong investor confidence and a stable market structure.

Looking at funding rates, TraderOasis observed a recent bearish sentiment among traders. However, he noted that such conditions often precede sharp price movements.

The analysis suggested the possibility of an initial upward spike to shake out bearish positions, followed by a subsequent pullback. This pattern, if realized, could set the stage for a more sustainable long-term uptrend.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView



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Bitcoin Rally To $95K? Market Greed Suggests It’s Possible

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Bitcoin is on everyone’s crosshairs once more. The cryptocurrency shot up to $88,500 today, exciting traders who think the price will rise to $95,000 in the near term. But while optimism is high, so is caution. Some analysts are warning that a retreat back to $80,000 may occur before the next major rally starts.

Traders Show Signs Of Greed

Market intelligence platform Santiment reports that greed is building among crypto investors. References of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 or even as high as $159,000 have surged through social media platforms. While hope is generating all the excitement, Santiment reminds that such peaks in greed generally precede an imminent price adjustment.

Traders had also been holding back earlier in the year when Bitcoin fell to a low of $78,000. But that recent spike back to $88,500 does appear to have changed the general sentiment. Santiment suggests this might be an ideal time for traders to consider taking profits.

Miners Hold Onto Bitcoin Reserves

Bitcoin miners appear to be confident about the future. According to data from CryptoQuant, miners have not been selling much of their Bitcoin recently. In fact, miner reserves now total 1.81 million BTC, which is worth around $159 billion.

Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, confirmed in a comment on X that no significant selling activity has been recorded among miners over the past 24 hours. This behavior could be a sign that miners are expecting higher prices and prefer to hold onto their earnings for now.

BTC market cap currently at $1.75 trillion. Chart: TradingView.com

Institutional Interest Grows With ETF Inflows

Institutional investors are also playing a big role in the market’s momentum. On March 25, Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US recorded a total daily inflow of $27 million. BlackRock, one of the largest asset management firms, led the way with $42 million in inflows that day.

Whereas some other funds such as Bitwise and WisdomTree experienced $10 million and $5 million outflows respectively, the robust demand for BlackRock helped in nudging the general trend into positive direction. BlackRock’s net assets in its Bitcoin spot ETF are currently at a little over $50 billion, demonstrating that institutional investors still have a passion for Bitcoin.

Analysts Expect Short-Term Fall Before Rally

Technical analysis is indicating Bitcoin might experience a temporary decline before the next peak. On its 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is having a difficult time surpassing a trendline of resistance, creating what experts refer to as a “double top” formation. The pattern suggests the potential for a price drop towards $85,000.

Meanwhile, the most important support level is at $86,146, according to the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level. If Bitcoin manages to stay above this level, analysts indicate that the price may rebound and move towards $95,000.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView





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Crusoe Energy sells Bitcoin mining arm to NYDIG, turns focus to AI

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United States-based Bitcoin miner Crusoe Energy is wrapping up its Bitcoin mining business as it plans to shift focus towards the artificial intelligence sector.

According to a recent press release, Crusoe will sell 425 of its modular data centers— spanning sites across Colorado, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah, Texas, and Argentina — with a combined 270 megawatts of power generation capacity, to the New York Digital Investment Group.

The deal also includes its Digital Flare Mitigation business, and around 135 employees will transition to NYDIG.

“Our innovative approach to energy utilized for mining is uniquely complementary to NYDIG’s bitcoin custody, institutional trading and mining businesses, creating a consolidated business that is more valuable than the sum of its parts,” Chase Lochmiller, CEO and co-founder of Crusoe, said regarding the acquisition.

NYDIG, which already has a strong presence in Bitcoin custody, trading, and mining, plans to continue operating and investing in the newly acquired business. In a separate announcement, the firm said the move will help support Bitcoin’s proof-of-work mechanism and contribute to the network’s long-term security.

Founded in 2018, Crusoe Energy was among the first U.S. Bitcoin mining firms to harness wasted natural gas to fuel the high-performance computing needed for both crypto mining and AI workloads. 

Now, the company says it’s ready to shift gears and focus on scaling its AI infrastructure.

“We will continue to channel the same energy-first mentality towards scaling AI infrastructure and accelerating the adoption and proliferation of AI in our everyday lives,” Lochmiller added.

Signs of a transition to AI had already emerged in 2024, when Crusoe announced a multibillion-dollar deal with energy tech firm Lancium to build a 200-megawatt AI data center in Abilene, Texas.

Touted as the “first phase” of a larger expansion, the facility was set to tap into up to 1.2 gigawatts of clean power and support GPU clusters designed for AI training and inference at scale.

At the time, Lochmiller called the project a unique opportunity to “sustainably power the future of AI.” Although a specific launch date wasn’t confirmed, the facility was expected to go live in 2025.

Crusoe’s transition to AI comes at a time when the U.S. government is also turning its attention to the sector. Since returning to office in 2025, President Donald Trump has signed an executive order aimed at encouraging American leadership in artificial intelligence.



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What Next For XRP, DOGE as Bitcoin Price Action Shows Bearish Double Top Formation

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery looks to have run out of steam with an emergence of a double top bearish reversal pattern on the short duration price charts.

BTC peaked near $87,400 last week, with prices pulling back to around $84,000 on Friday and staging a recovery to above $87,000 before stalling again. This sequence of two prominent peaks at roughly the same level, separated by a trough, hints at a classic double top formation. This bearish pattern often signals the end of an uptrend.

(CoinGecko)

(CoinGecko)

The double top pattern typically requires confirmation through a decisive drop below the “neckline,” the support level between the two peaks, which lies at around $86,000.

Should this occur, BTC could decline toward $75,000 or lower in the short term. However, long-term charts continue to indicate the asset remains in an ascending range.

Traders reacted positively to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on inflation and a cooldown in concerns around the upcoming U.S. tariffs, which have supported gains in the past week.

However, the lack of altcoin correlation with BTC’s recent moves hints that the current price action might lack broad market support, raising the possibility of a “fakeout” rally.

A potential drop in BTC will likely spread over to major tokens, denting recent gains and hopes of a lasting rally. Dogecoin (DOGE), heavily influenced by market sentiment and speculative trading, could see amplified losses if bitcoin’s bearish pattern plays out, while XRP might see reduced momentum, especially given its sensitivity to market sentiment and regulatory developments.

Solana could be particularly sensitive due to its recent volatility and technical indicators — with it coming close to forming a “death cross” (a bearish signal where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day) in mid-April, a pattern that historically leads to deeper losses.

For now, bitcoin hovers in a critical zone. A weekly close below $84,000 could confirm the bearish double top scenario, while a push above $87,500 might invalidate it, potentially reigniting bullish momentum.





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