Connect with us

Markets

Bitcoin Is Up 36% in November as It Approaches $100,000

Published

1 month ago

on


Nov. 30, is the last trading day of the month, so all eyes will be on bitcoin’s (BTC) monthly candle. Bitcoin is less than 4% away from the psychological wall of $100,000. While the $9 billion worth of options expiry for bitcoin has just expired, which has sent the token slightly higher on the day to over $96,000.

CoinGlass data shows that November has been one of the strongest months for bitcoin for several years, currently up over 36%, which would be the fourth best performing month since October 2021.

November’s rise has only been beaten thrice February 2024 (44%), January 2023 (40%) and October 2021 (40%). November’s impressive performance is largely due to the fact that Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election earlier this month.

Yet, bitcoin still has two more days until the official monthly close so there is still time to beat these milestones.

On a quarterly timeframe, bitcoin is currently up 51% on the quarter with December still to come, on average the month of December returns around 5%. Q4 2024 has been the strongest quarter since Q1 which returned 69%.

BTC Monthly Performance (Glassnode)

BTC Monthly Performance (Glassnode)

It seems a matter of when not if, bitcoin breaks past $100,000 while it is on track towards an all-time high monthly close.

Analyst Caleb Franzen believes there is more juice left to squeeze in this current bitcoin bull market.

“BTCUSD monthly chart with the RSI indicator: Bitcoin bull markets often peak with the monthly RSI trading above 90, versus the current level of 75. Historically, we’ve seen each bull market peak with a lower RSI, illustrated by the descending trend line, Franzen says. The implication is that momentum is not yet “overheated” and that more upside can be squeezed out of this uptrend in the months/quarters ahead”.

BTCUSD monthly chart with the RSI indicator (Caleb Franzen)

BTCUSD monthly chart with the RSI indicator (Caleb Franzen)

Similar market structure to Q4 2020

Bitcoin is in a similar market structure to Q4 2020, both periods saw strong green months in October and November, with a correction during the 2020 Thanksgiving period. In the back end of 2020, this was when bitcoin conclusively left behind the psychological barrier of $10,000 and went to $60,000 by April 2021.

Glassnode data shows that when bitcoin is above the short-term holder’s realized price (STHRP) it tends to mean bitcoin is in a bull market. In Q4 2020, bitcoin used the STHRP consistently as a support level, as the price continued higher.

An expectation could be that bitcoin continues higher and using the STHRP as a support level mimicking Q4 2020. STHP reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins held outside exchange reserves, which were moved within the last 155 days. These reflect the most probable coins to be spent on any given day.

There is also a growing divergence between the realized price (which reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for the entire coin supply) and the long-term holder realized price (LTHRP) which reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins held outside exchange reserves, which have not moved within the last 155-days. These reflect the least probable coins to be spent on any given day.

A growing divergence tells us that new participants are entering the market while long-term holders are spending or realizing profits.

One very small data point indicates that bitcoin could even hit $100,000 on Nov. 29. Bitcoin first hit $1,000 on Nov. 27, 2013. Four years and one day later, bitcoin first hit $10,000. Could we see $100,000, just seven years and one day later?





Source link

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Markets

MicroStrategy Continues Weekly Bitcoin Buying Spree With Another $101 Million

Published

2 days ago

on

January 6, 2025

By



Software company MicroStrategy is pushing forward with its Bitcoin buying spree in 2025, today snapping up more than $100 million worth of the orange coin.

An SEC filing and Monday announcement from the company’s co-founder and Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor showed that MicroStrategy spent $101 million buying 1,070 BTC at an average price of $94,004. That’s roughly half the amount of Bitcoin the company bought last week, consistent with the weekly buying trend that MicroStrategy started in November following the reelection of Donald Trump.

MicroStrategy now holds 447,470 Bitcoin in total. At today’s Bitcoin price of $101,832, that’s a stash worth over $45.5 billion. All told, the company bought their coins at an average price of $62,503, the announcement said.

Prediction markets last week were bullish that MicroStrategy would buy more Bitcoin today—and understandably so, given that that today’s purchase makes nine consecutively weekly buys for Saylor’s company.

On Myriad—a points-based prediction market and engagement platform developed by Dastan, parent company of an editorially independent Decrypt—users saw an 86% chance that MicroStrategy would hold at least 450,000 BTC before the end of this week. Those odds, though, have now tanked to just 20% as of this writing following the company’s announcement of a much smaller purchase relative to previous weeks.

On the Monday following Trump’s win, MicroStrategy announced it bought more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin. It then followed up the next week with another $4.6 billion, and then again with its single largest purchase yet of $5.4 billion the week after that.

The company has continued buying more Bitcoin every week since, but the individual amounts have gradually decreased in recent weeks as the price of Bitcoin has swelled. Users on Polymarket, a prediction market co-founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020, currently see only a 2% chance that MicroSrategy holds more than 500,000 BTC by Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

MicroStrategy was previously a software company that sold data-analyzing solutions to companies. It still does that, but Saylor has since rebranded the firm as a Bitcoin development company, leading with its Bitcoin treasury.

It all started in 2020, when covid lockdowns and record low interest rates threatened to hurt the company’s shareholders, according to Saylor. He decided to buy Bitcoin and has since argued that the asset—being scarce—is the best way to preserve wealth.

Now, MicroStrategy makes most of its money by securitizing the biggest cryptocurrency by market cap: investors wanting exposure to Bitcoin can buy shares of the company that trade on the Nasdaq—an arguably safer, more regulated way of crypto investing.

It is now the biggest publicly traded holder of the cryptocurrency and issues debt to buy Bitcoin—making a killing for investors in the process: MicroStrategy stock is up over 500% year-to-date.

But concerns have been raised about how viable this is if the price of Bitcoin were to tank: the company is highly leveraged and some analysts now believe the stock price may be overvalued.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

Daily Debrief Newsletter

Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.





Source link

Continue Reading

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

New Pi Cycle Top Prediction Chart Identifies Bitcoin Price Market Peaks with Precision

Published

2 days ago

on

January 6, 2025

By



Bitcoin investors and analysts constantly seek innovative tools and indicators to gain a competitive edge in navigating volatile market cycles. A recent addition to this arsenal is the Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart, now available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Designed for professional and institutional investors, this chart builds on the widely recognized Pi Cycle Top indicator—a tool that has historically pinpointed Bitcoin’s market cycle peaks with remarkable accuracy.

Understanding the Pi Cycle Top Prediction Indicator

The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart enhances the concept of its predecessor by projecting future potential crossover points of two key moving averages:

  1. 111-day Moving Average (111DMA)
  2. 350-day Moving Average multiplied by two (350DMA x2)

By calculating the rate of change of these two moving averages over the past 14 days, the tool extrapolates their trajectory into the future. This approach provides a predictive estimate of when these two averages will cross, signaling a potential market top.

Historically, the crossover of these moving averages has been closely associated with Bitcoin’s cycle tops. In fact, the original Pi Cycle Top indicator successfully identified Bitcoin’s previous cycle peaks to within three days, both before and after its creation.

Implications for Market Behavior

When the 111DMA approaches the 350DMA x2, it suggests that Bitcoin’s price may be rising unsustainably, often reflecting heightened speculative fervor. A crossover typically signals the end of a bull market, followed by a price correction or bear market.

For professional investors, this tool is invaluable as a risk management mechanism. By identifying periods when market conditions might be overheating, it allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure to Bitcoin and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Key Prediction: September 17, 2025

The current projection estimates that the moving averages will cross on September 17, 2025. This date represents a potential market top, offering investors a timeline to monitor and reassess their positions as market dynamics evolve. Users can view this projection in detail by hovering over the chart on the Bitcoin Magazine Pro platform.

The Pi Cycle Top Prediction indicator was conceptualized by Matt Crosby, Lead Analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro. It builds on the original Pi Cycle Top indicator, created by Philip Swift, Managing Director of Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Swift’s Pi Cycle Top has become a trusted resource among Bitcoin analysts and investors for its historical accuracy in identifying market peaks.

Investors interested in a deeper exploration of market cycles can also refer to:

Video Explainer and Educational Resources

For a comprehensive explanation of the Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart, investors can watch a detailed video by Matt Crosby, available here. This video provides an overview of the methodology, practical applications, and historical context for this predictive tool.

Why This Matters for Professional Investors

In a market as dynamic and unpredictable as Bitcoin, professional investors require sophisticated tools to anticipate and respond to significant market shifts. The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart offers:

  • Data-Driven Insights: By leveraging historical data and predictive modeling, the chart delivers actionable insights for portfolio management.
  • Timing Precision: The ability to estimate cycle tops with a high degree of accuracy enhances strategic decision-making.
  • Risk Mitigation: Early warning signals of market overheating empower investors to protect their portfolios from potential downside risks.

As Bitcoin matures into an asset class increasingly adopted by institutional investors, tools like the Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart become essential for understanding and navigating its unique market cycles. By integrating this chart into their analytical toolkit, investors can deepen their insights and improve their long-term investment outcomes.

To explore live data and stay informed on the latest analysis, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.





Source link

Continue Reading

Markets

SPX6900 price rockets to ATH: will SPX hit $2 soon?

Published

2 days ago

on

January 6, 2025

By




The SPX6900 token continued its strong uptrend on Monday, reaching an all-time high with a market cap exceeding $1.42 billion. SPX6900 (SPX) traded above $1.56 on Jan. 6, rising more than 250% from its November low, making it the tenth-largest…



Source link

Continue Reading
Advertisement [ethereumads]

Trending

    wpChatIcon