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Bitcoin-Linked Asset Performance Review for 2024

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Disclaimer: The analyst who wrote this piece owns shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR)

It’s been a tough month for MicroStrategy (MSTR), the software developer turned bitcoin (BTC) accumulator. Its stock has tumbled almost 50% since November, when it joined the Nasdaq 100 index and peaked at a 600% gain since the start of the year.

That still leaves the Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company a whopping 342% ahead in 2024, the biggest return among the highest-profile crypto-linked assets in traditional finance (TradFi).

It’s been a volatile year, packed with geopolitical and technological developments to rattle financial markets. The continuing wars in eastern Europe and the Middle East, elections across the globe, the unwinding of the yen carry trade in August and the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) have all left their marks.

MicroStrategy’s gain is almost double that of Nvidia (NVDA), the chipmaker whose production of integrated circuits needed for AI applications fueled a 185% return, the best among the so-called magnificent seven tech stocks. The next best, Meta Platforms (META), turned in 71%.

Bitcoin itself rose 100% in a year that included April’s reward halving and multiple record highs. Demand for the largest cryptocurrency was driven by the January approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. Bitcoin outperformed two of its biggest competitors, ether (ETH), up 42%, and Solana (SOL), up 79%.

Among the ETF’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) also returned over 100% and became the fastest ETF in history to hit $50 billion in assets.

Bitcoin mining companies, on the whole, disappointed. Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI), a proxy for mining stocks, rose just under 30%. That’s despite demand for the miners’ computing capabilities and power supply agreements from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) companies. Still, individual companies benefited, in particular, Bitdeer (BTDR),which added 151%, and WULF (WULF), which gained 131%.

Nevertheless, the miners’ gains beat the broader equities market. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) added 28% while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 25%. The S&P 500 also trailed behind gold’s 27% increase. The precious commodity has now topped the equity gauge in three of the past five years.

Concerns about U.S. inflation and the country’s budget deficit added to the geopolitical uncertainties to prompt a massive rise in U.S. treasury yields, which move in the opposite direction to price.

The yield on the 10-Year Treasury added 15% to 4.5% over the course of the year, and surprisingly gained a full 100 basis points since the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates in September.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which tracks bond prices, dropped 10% this year and has lost 40% in the past five years.

The dollar, on the other hand, showed its strength. The DXY Index (DXY), a measure of the greenback against a basket of the currencies of the U.S.’ biggest trading partners, rose to the highest since September 2022.

West Texas Intermediate (USOIL), the benchmark oil price in the U.S., ends the year little changed, up less than 1% to around $71 a barrel. But it was a bumpy ride, with the price rising to almost $90 at some points in the past 12 months.

As we head into the new year, all eyes will be on the debt ceiling discussion, the policies of President-elect Donald Trump and whether the U.S. can continue with its impressive growth story.

Assets % YTD Returns (TradingView)

Assets % YTD Returns (TradingView)





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Analysts Highlight Investor Sentiment Shift As Bitcoin Approaches $98,000

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After weeks of consistent price correction, Bitcoin latest performance now appears to be demonstrating a rebound as the asset has earlier today reclaimed the $96,000 price mark now approaching the $98,000 level.

As Bitcoin approaches this key level, data shows that the top crypto has shown mixed signals across key market indicators, reflecting a subtle yet significant shift in investor sentiment.

Particularly, analysts have identified specific patterns in funding rates and premium metrics, which serve as vital tools for interpreting market sentiment and predicting potential price movements.

Bitcoin Current Funding Rates And What It Signals

A notable observation by CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet highlights how funding rate movements reflect retail investor sentiment. According to Mignolet analysis, funding rates, which represent the cost of holding long or short positions in perpetual futures contracts, are exhibiting nuanced movements.

Historically, during moments of strong resistance, funding rates tend to decline, signaling subdued sentiment and caution among investors.

In late October 2024, when Bitcoin was approaching its all-time high, funding rates showed similar behavior, reflecting investor hesitation despite rising prices. However, the current scenario presents a contrasting sentiment.

The analyst disclosed that while corrective price movements have emerged, investors are viewing these pullbacks as buying opportunities rather than reasons for fear or contraction.

This subtle psychological difference could influence market dynamics significantly, potentially paving the way for sustained upward momentum.  Mignolet wrote:

Similar corrective candles have appeared, and from a technical perspective, this position might seem even more precarious. However, the sentiment is different. People now view this as an opportunity and believe it’s a reasonable position to buy. I believe this subtle difference in sentiment has the potential to produce very significant results.

Coinbase Premium Indicator Reaches Historic Low

Another key observation comes from the Coinbase Premium Indicator, a metric that measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase (a US-based exchange) and other global exchanges.

Recently, this premium dropped to its lowest level since January 2023, a period that marked a significant market bottom. Historically, when this premium turned negative during bullish phases, it often preceded a price rebound.

Analysts suggest that such negative sentiment from US investors often triggers strong buying pressure, which can reverse short-term downward trends and fuel long-term price gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView





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21 Million

Owning 1 Bitcoin Is Better Than Being a Millionaire

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Let me be honest—becoming a wholecoiner is one of the smartest moves you can make, but it’s also becoming ridiculously hard. I remember when I first got into bitcoin back in 2016. The price was around $400-$500, and owning one full bitcoin felt totally doable.

Now? It’s a completely different story.

Bitcoin is sitting near $100,000, and owning even half a bitcoin feels out of reach for most people. Let’s put this into perspective: the average savings for someone under 35 in the U.S. is just $20,540. That’s not even 25% of what it costs to buy 1 BTC today. Most of these millennials and zoomers can only dream of ever owning a whole bitcoin—it’s just not realistic for the average person anymore.

And here’s the part that really blows my mind: there are only about 1 million bitcoin addresses that hold more than 1 BTC. Even if we assume every single one of those addresses belongs to a different person (which isn’t true), that’s just 0.0125% of the global population. Think about it—being a wholecoiner already puts you in one of the most exclusive clubs in the world.

Now, let’s compare that to fiat millionaires. There are about 58 million millionaires worldwide. And here’s the kicker: there are only 21 million bitcoin in total. Even if every single millionaire on the planet wanted to own one bitcoin, they couldn’t. There’s just not enough bitcoin to go around. That’s why being a wholecoiner is better than being a fiat millionaire. Fiat is infinite—anyone can become a millionaire in a system where money is endlessly printed. But bitcoin? It’s hard-capped. Scarce.

If you’re a millionaire and you don’t own at least 1 bitcoin yet, wake up. The race is on, and most millionaires are going to miss out. And if you’re already a wholecoiner? Congratulations. You’re part of the 0.0125% who will ever own this much bitcoin.

It might not feel like a big deal now, but in 20 or 30 years, you’ll look back and realize how rare and special it is. As Tuur Demeester said: “These are the last months that 1 BTC is accessible to the upper middle class.” That quote stuck with me because it’s true. The window is closing.

If you’re in the race, don’t stop. And if you’re on the sidelines, it’s time to get moving—because bitcoin’s scarcity is going to leave a lot of people behind.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.



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Economist Henrik Zeberg Says ‘Big Push’ Into Altcoins Now Underway Amid Macro Shift

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Economist Henrik Zeberg says the crypto market is suddenly flashing bullish for altcoins as he warns of worsening macro conditions.

Zeberg tells his 172,200 followers on the social media platform X that altcoins have started to outperform Bitcoin (BTC) based on the flagship crypto’s dominance level (BTC.D).

The BTC.D is the ratio between the market cap of BTC versus the market cap of all crypto assets combined. At time of writing, BTC.D is at 57.65%.

The analyst uses the Elliott Wave theory to forecast a massive run for altcoins. The theory states that an asset tends to witness a five-wave rally with wave three being the longest and the strongest move up.

“We have had the first initial push in wave one of the BTC Dominance Index. Hardly noticeable! It will be in wave three (which starts now) that we really see the big push in altcoins. And it only ends after another three waves from here in wave three, wave four, wave five. When? We will have to see! Most importantly is to be on the right side of the trade.”

Zeberg is also predicting a blow-off top for the markets sooner rather than later.

In technical analysis, a blow-off top is a chart pattern showing a sudden rise in price that is followed by a sharp decline.

He cites a survey poll from Bloomberg and business research group The Conference Board showing that a majority of consumers are feeling bullish on the markets for the next year, which he suggests is a bearish signal.

“TOP IS NOT IN yet on S&P 500, Nasdaq, BTC, alts. Mega rally to develop = Blow-off top. But this is funny! Now convince me again why I should be so bullish. Major top will be in soon (and already is for Dow Jones).”

Image
Source: Henrik Zeberg/X

Lastly, he suggests there will not be an economic “soft landing,” citing a Financial Times report that shows US credit card defaults have reached their highest level since 2010.

“Another sign of the ‘soft landing.’”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney





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