Just as I called it a few weeks ago, the election was too big to rig. I said the outcome of the election would dictate when we see a new Bitcoin all-time high. My argument was that if Trump won, we would see Bitcoin rise to a six figure price and if Kamala won, BTC would have dumped hard.

But thankfully, pro-Bitcoin Donald Trump swept the election, winning all swing states and the popular vote. His anti-Bitcoin opponent lost in dramatic fashion, and now it’s off to the races for Bitcoin’s price. Even CNBC is reporting on this as the “post-election rally.”

Trump’s proposed policies for Bitcoin has propelled bitcoin’s price upward — it’s now up over 22% since last week. If Trump had lost, the price of BTC would have most likely plummeted due to Harris’ unfavorable policy around Bitcoin and overall horrible policy around financial markets in general — like wanting to tax unrealized gains.

Now, we’re past that, though, and we have a President-elect that is going to champion Bitcoin innovation, support the industry and has pledged to work with congress and the senate to approve and establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. In addition to that, MicoStrategy is raising $42 billion to buy more bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs are on an accumulation rampage (BlackRock’s ETF did $1 billion in volume in just 35 minutes this morning) — and it feels like no one is selling.

WE ARE GOING TO BUILD A STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸

— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) November 6, 2024

Oh, and on top of all that, Ross Ulbricht is going to be a free man on day one of Trump’s presidency. We are winning on every single front now.

So, thank you President Trump for saving us from the Democrats’ war on Bitcoin, from four more years of their continued attack on this industry and, of course, for bitcoin’s price making new all-time highs (we just hit $85,000! Let’s go!)

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

This is your captain speaking: Due to regulatory uncertainties regarding who will win the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, Bitcoin’s price has fallen back to $70,000 under further notice — please HODL.

Okay now past the cringe, Bitcoin’s price nearly hit an all time high of above $73,770 earlier this week, falling just $200 short around $73,500. As I noted last week, markets had been pricing in a Trump victory, which would see his positive policies around Bitcoin and other financial markets be put into place.

Unfortunately though, just 4 days out from the election, there’s a feeling in the air that Kamala Harris may still win as she overtakes Trump in the odds of winning swing states Wisconsin and Michigan.

This race will be much closer than what the markets have predicted the last few weeks.

If Trump wins, many are expecting BTC to rise due to his favorable policies he has promised to implement. Bitcoin would be poised to grow significantly and even $800 billion bank Standard Chartered predicted $125,000 prices if Republicans can sweep the election.

If Harris wins on the other hand though, things could be different. Due to her having basically no policies around Bitcoin (let alone any good ones) voters can only assume she is going to continue the Democrats’ 4-year long attack on the Bitcoin industry.

It is pretty amazing that there isn’t even a public record, video or written, of her saying the word Bitcoin before. $700 billion wealth manager Bernstein said earlier this September that if Harris wins, the price of Bitcoin could drop to as low as $30,000.

I think guessing $30k Bitcoin prices is pretty hyperbolic, and that it won’t drop that much if she wins. But I do believe it would severely delay hitting a new all time high until at least next year. I would love to be wrong on that though.

As we head into this election, regardless of the outcome, I will be HODLing my bitcoin. While the price may fluctuate up or down heavily in the short term, it is still the best asset to own at times of uncertainty. And this is a time of uncertainty that will dictate massively the future of this industry in the US.

With that all said, a new all time high has been postponed until further notice — please HODL.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Bitcoin has been steadily climbing since crossing the $60,000 mark and is currently hovering closer to the $70,000 level, a price it hasn’t reached in months. With the market sentiment heating up, investors are wondering whether Bitcoin has the strength to reach new all-time highs or if it will struggle to break past key resistance levels.

A Healthy Sentiment

The Fear and Greed Index is a useful tool for understanding market sentiment and how traders view the trajectory of Bitcoin. Currently, the index is at a “Greed” level of around 70, which is historically seen as a positive sign but still a fair distance from the extreme greed levels that could indicate a potential market top. This index measures emotions in the market, with lower levels indicating fear and higher levels suggesting greed. Typically, when the index surpasses the 90+ range, the market becomes overly bullish, raising concerns of overextension.

It’s important to note that last year, when the Fear and Greed Index reached similar levels, Bitcoin was trading at around $34,000. From there, it more than doubled to $73,000 over the following months.

Key Support

The Short-Term Holder Realized Price measures the average price new Bitcoin investors have paid for their bitcoin. It’s crucial because it often acts as a strong support level during bull markets and as resistance during bear markets. Currently, this price sits around $62,000, and Bitcoin has managed to stay above it. This is a promising sign, as it shows that newer market participants are in profit, and Bitcoin is holding above a crucial support zone. Historically, breaking below this level has led to market weakness, so maintaining this support is key to any continued rally.

We’ve seen this dynamic in past cycles, especially during the 2016-2017 bull market, where Bitcoin retraced to this level several times before continuing its climb. If this trend holds, Bitcoin’s recent breakthrough could provide a foundation for further gains.

Stabilizing Market

One area that traders often watch is Funding Rates, which indicate the cost of holding long or short positions in Bitcoin futures. Over the past few months, funding rates have been volatile, swinging between overly optimistic long positions and overly bearish short positions. Thankfully, the market has now stabilized, with funding rates sitting at neutral levels. This is a healthy sign as it suggests traders aren’t overly leveraged in either direction.

In neutral territory, there’s less risk of a liquidation cascade, a common phenomenon when over-leveraged positions get wiped out, causing sharp market drops. As long as the funding rates remain stable, Bitcoin could have the breathing room it needs to continue rising without major volatility.

A Tough Path to $70,000 and Beyond

While the market sentiment and technicals suggest that Bitcoin is in a healthy place, there are still significant levels of resistance above. First, the current resistance trend line is one that Bitcoin has struggled to break. This downtrend line has been tested several times, but each time, Bitcoin has retraced after hitting it.

Beyond this, Bitcoin faces several additional barriers, such as $70,000. This level has acted as resistance in the past and represents a psychological level that traders will likely be watching closely. And above that the all-time high between $73,000 and $74,000. Breaking this would be a major bullish signal, but it could take several attempts before Bitcoin clears this level.

One positive technical element is the recent reclaim of the 200 daily moving average. A key level for investors to watch that had acted as resistance for BTC over the previous few months.

The Macro Environment: Institutional and ETF Inflows

Beyond technical indicators, the macro environment is increasingly favorable for Bitcoin. Institutional money continues to flow into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). In the past few days, over $1 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting growing confidence in the asset. Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen hundreds of millions more in ETF inflows, signaling that smart money, particularly institutional investors, is bullish on Bitcoin’s future.

This is significant because institutional money tends to take a long-term view, providing a more stable base of support than retail speculation. Moreover, as equities and even gold have been gaining ground in recent months, Bitcoin appears to be lagging slightly behind. This could set the stage for Bitcoin to play catch-up, particularly if investors rotate from traditional assets into the more risk-on realm of Bitcoin.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price action, funding rates, and sentiment all suggest that the market is in a healthier place than it has been in months. Institutional inflows into ETFs and improving macro conditions add further bullish tailwinds. However, significant resistance lies ahead, and any rally will likely face challenges before Bitcoin can truly break out to new highs.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:

Can Bitcoin Now Make A New ATH