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Bitcoin price at risk? Outlook is bearish as MVRV, fear and greed index fall

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Bitcoin price continued its consolidation as the fear and greed index remained at the neutral point and the Z score of the market value and realized value fell to a three-month low.

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by volume, remains in a tight range. At last check Saturday, the price hovered $97,600 — up 1.2%.

Why Bitcoin price has stalled

This price action is happening as investors remain on the sidelines as they wait for the next catalyst. SoSoValue data shows that American investors’ demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has waned.

The funds had net outflows worth over $650 million in the last four days.

On-chain analyst Ali Martinez commented on the trend on Saturday,

When spot Bitcoin ETFs offload BTC, it means they are selling Bitcoin from their holdings, which can create downward price pressure, signal investor outflows, and increase market volatility.

Redemptions, institutional portfolio shifts, or fund rebalancing are likely driving the sales. If multiple ETFs sell simultaneously, it can amplify price swings, especially in low-liquidity periods.

Additionally, arbitrage traders may exploit discrepancies between ETF prices and Bitcoin’s spot price.

Who’s to blame?

Bitcoin stalled amid the ongoing geopolitical risks and potential for high interest rates for longer. Investors anticipate President Donald Trump’s tariffs will spark a trade war and cause market volatility.

It will also lead to higher inflation as companies boost prices in the U.S. Inflation data released this week showed that the headline consumer inflation data rose from 2.9% in December to 3% in January, while the core CPI moved from 3.2% to 3.3%.

Bitcoin and other risky assets underperform the market when the Federal Reserve is hawkish. In his testimony to Congress this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank would hold steady until inflation starts falling.

Investors are jittery

The closely watched fear and greed index has dropped from the extreme greed area of 90 in 2024 to the fear zone of 40.

Further, the Z score of the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicator has dropped to 2.49, from the year-to-date high of 3. The MVRV indicator is a popular tool used to measure the valuation of a crypto coin. It does that by subtracting the realized market value from the circulating market value and then standardizing it. An MVRV figure of less than 3.5 indicates that a crypto coin is undervalued. 

Historically, a drop in the fear and greed index, MVRV, and futures open interest signals potential accumulation by smart money investors.

BTC price technical analysis: Bitcoin needs to clear $108,440

Bitcoin price
Bitcoin price chart | Source: crypto.news

The daily chart shows that the price of Bitcoin has remained below $100,000 in the past few days. It has also remained in a tight range in the past two months. 

Bitcoin has dropped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, a bearish sign. Additionally, it has formed a double-top chart pattern at $108,440. 

Therefore, Bitcoin’s outlook is bearish as long as it is below the double-top level. The bearish outlook will become invalid if it moves above $108,440, as this will invalidate the double-top point. 

A drop below the neckline point at $89,055 will point to more downside, with the next support level being at $73,613. 

Ethereum, meanwhile, is currently trading at $2,693.91 — down 0.3%.



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Monero’s XMR Rockets 40% as XRP Leads Crypto Majors Gains

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Shaurya is the Co-Leader of the CoinDesk tokens and data team in Asia with a focus on crypto derivatives, DeFi, market microstructure, and protocol analysis.

Shaurya holds over $1,000 in BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, SUSHI, CRV, NEAR, YFI, YFII, SHIB, DOGE, USDT, USDC, BNB, MANA, MLN, LINK, XMR, ALGO, VET, CAKE, AAVE, COMP, ROOK, TRX, SNX, RUNE, FTM, ZIL, KSM, ENJ, CKB, JOE, GHST, PERP, BTRFLY, OHM, BANANA, ROME, BURGER, SPIRIT, and ORCA.

He provides over $1,000 to liquidity pools on Compound, Curve, SushiSwap, PancakeSwap, BurgerSwap, Orca, AnySwap, SpiritSwap, Rook Protocol, Yearn Finance, Synthetix, Harvest, Redacted Cartel, OlympusDAO, Rome, Trader Joe, and SUN.





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Expert Reveals Why The Ethereum-To-Bitcoin Ratio Is Falling

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The Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio has fallen to its lowest level in five years after a dismal Ethereum price performance. As investors try to wrap their heads around the grim metric, Taproot Wizards co-founder Eric Wall has explained the reason behind the steep drop.

Eric Wall Highlights Reasons For ETH/BTC Ratio Collapse

Taproot Wizards co-founder Eric Wall has identified a raft of reasons behind the decline of the ETH/BTC ratio in 2025. The cryptocurrency expert revealed the factors behind the falling ETH/BTC ratio in an X post, hinging the bulk of the blame on Ethereum’s recent price performance.

The ETH/BTC ratio slumped to a five-year low after Ethereum bucked the trend of following Bitcoin on a rally after the halving event. While Bitcoin price rose to cross the $100K mark, Ethereum price has tumbled below $2,000 to reach lows of $1,400.

For Wall, one factor affecting the ETH/BTC ratio appears to be Ethereum’s position in a competitive landscape. Since its launch, several blockchains have cropped up to snag market share from the largest altcoin, offering cheaper fees and faster processing times.

The cryptocurrency expert argues that the absence of a Saylor-like buyer for ETH is playing its role in the decline of the ETH/BTC ratio. Michael Saylor’s BTC purchases have contributed to the asset’s performance, but Wall argues that Ethereum does not have a consistent buyer.

Wall adds that Bitcoin and gold have evolved into wartime assets in the current macroeconomic climate, while ETH is considered a “peacetime asset.” Gold has surged to new highs, sparking optimism that Bitcoin will follow in the same path for a similar rally, while the Ethereum price continues its unimpressive run.

The Merge Is Not Responsible For The Ratio Decline

Eric Wall notes that Ethereum’s Merge event is not responsible for the ETH/BTC slump, contrary to popular sentiment. Ethereum migrated from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake in 2022, with the ETH/BTC ratio tanking since the Merge.

“The ETHBTC ratio did not go down because of The Merge,” said Eric Wall.

However, pseudonymous cryptocurrency analyst Beanie argues that the Merge is the primary reason for the price decline. Rebuffing the speculation, Wall opines that Ethereum’s layer 2 tokens triggered network fragmentation after botching the “asset value capture narrative,” affecting the ETH/BTC ratio.

“Ethereum also stagnated into a depressingly small number of defi primitives relative to what past expectations were,” added Wall.

Ethereum is flashing signs of brilliance after ETH trading volume spiked to $17.5 billion in less than a day. ETH prices are exchanging hands at nearly 1,800 after an impressive 12% rally that saw it outperform SOL and XRP

 

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Aliyu Pokima

Aliyu Pokima is a seasoned cryptocurrency and emerging technologies journalist with a knack for covering needle-moving stories in the space. Aliyu delivers breaking news stories, regulatory updates, and insightful analysis with depth and precision. When he’s not poring over charts or following leads, Aliyu enjoys playing the bass guitar, lifting weights and running marathons.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Tariff Carnage Starting to Fulfill BTC’s ‘Store of Value’ Promise

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April has been a month of extreme volatility and tumultuous times for traders.

From conflicting headlines about President Donald Trump’s tariffs against other nations to total confusion about which assets to seek shelter in, it has been one for the record books.

Amid all the confusion, when traditional “haven assets” failed to act as safe places to park money, one bright spot emerged that might have surprised some market participants: bitcoin.

“Historically, cash (the US dollar), bonds (US Treasuries), the Swiss Franc, and gold have fulfilled that role [safe haven], with bitcoin edging in on some of that territory,” said NYDIG Research in a note.

Safe haven asset performance (NYDIG Research)

Safe haven asset performance (NYDIG Research)

NYDIG’s data showed that while gold and Swiss Franc had been consistent safe-haven winners, since ‘Liberation Day’—when President Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes on April 2, kicking off extreme volatility in the market—bitcoin has been added to the list.

“Bitcoin has acted less like a liquid levered version of levered US equity beta and more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is,” NYDIG wrote.

Zooming out, it seems that as the “sell America” trade gains momentum, investors are taking notice of bitcoin and the original promise of the biggest cryptocurrency.

“Though the connection is still tentative, bitcoin appears to be fulfilling its original promise as a non-sovereign store of value, designed to thrive in times like these,” NYDIG added.

Read more: Gold and Bonds’ Safe Haven Allure May be Fading With Bitcoin Emergence





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