A weekend Truth Social post from President Donald Trump set in motion the first steps in creating a strategic U.S. bitcoin (BTC) reserve, but Polymarket traders are skeptical that it will happen within the first 100 days.

As of press time, Polymarket bettors are giving a 23% chance that a strategic BTC reserve will be created within the first 100 days of the Trump presidency – or by April 30th, 2025.

Rules of the contract say that the U.S. government will need to specifically hold bitcoin – and not from confiscation – by 11:59 PM ET on April 29 for this to resolve to yes. Announcements of the creation of a reserve do not count.

Chances of a reserve coming true spiked from 11% to 23% in the moments after Trump’s announcement. Another contract that asks if a reserve will be created by the end of 2025 currently has a 65% chance of resolving to yes.

Initially, Trump’s social media post announcing the creation of the reserve only named XRP and SOL as components of the reserve—which caused their value to spike—before clarifying that BTC and ETH would also be included in the reserve.

One of the most profitable traders of the 100-day crypto reserve contract is Theo5, which appears to be affiliated with a French trader who created a series of accounts, including Theo4, to directionally bet on Trump’s victory in the November 2024 election.

Theo5 currently has posted a $40,000 profit on his no position.

Meanwhile, a trader known as Polywog lost $73,000 on their yes position and also lost over $560,000 by incorrectly betting on the outcome of the 2025 election.

A crypto trader just turned well-timed bets into $6.8 million after placing highly leveraged bets on Bitcoin and Ethereum, scaling into long positions hours before President Donald Trump’s U.S. crypto reserve announcement on Sunday.

The trader, operating on decentralized derivatives exchange, Hyperliquid, deposited $6 million in USDC and used 50x leverage to open long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain.

The strategy carried significant risk—a 2% price drop would have triggered liquidation—but instead, the market surged following Trump’s announcement, allowing the trader to exit with millions in gains.

Strategic market timing raises questions

At 9:49 AM ET on Sunday, the trader began aggressively increasing Ethereum long positions, acquiring hundreds of ETH contracts at $2,190 to $2,202, according to data provided by analytics dashboard Hyperdash.

Just 35 minutes later, at 10:24 AM ET, Trump announced on Truth Social that his administration would establish a U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve, naming Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano as part of the initiative.

It is unclear if the move was based on speculation or prior knowledge of the impending statement. 

In any case, the market reacted instantly to Trump’s announcement with Bitcoin surging beyond $90,000 while Ethereum climbed above $2,400. Both assets are up 10% and 14.6% respectively on the day to $94,378 and $2,540, CoinGecko data shows.

The move comes after Trump signed an executive order on digital assets, establishing a Presidential Working Group to shape crypto policy and explore his campaign pledge of a Bitcoin reserve.

The surprise inclusion of XRP, Cardano, Solana, and Ethereum to that initiative, sending prices soaring.

His announcement follows months of regulatory rollbacks, with the SEC retreating from legal battles against major crypto firms like Coinbase and Robinhood.

$6.8 million profit in phased exits

As crypto prices surged, the trader began closing positions in phases, securing gains while reducing exposure to volatility. 

Bitcoin exits were executed between $87,500 and $91,399, while Ethereum positions were sold above $2,270, on-chain data shows.

By Sunday afternoon, the trader had fully exited the bulk of their positions, locking in $6.8 million in profit.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said that bitcoin (BTC), ether (ETH), XRP, solana (SOL) and cardano (ADA) could comprise the promised strategic crypto reserve, sparking a sharp rally in these tokens’ prices.

The spot-led rally saw these tokens trade at a substantial premium on the Nasdaq-listed Coinbase exchange, a proxy for the U.S. demand, compared to the offshore giant Binance, according to data source TradingView.

The so-called Coinbase premium for XRP, SOL, and ADA surged to the highest level since Feb. 3. BTC and ETH traded at slightly higher prices on Coinbase than Binance.

Since early last year, Coinbase premium has been a feature of price rallies, validating the bull runs.
Read more: Bitcoin Jumps Above $91K After Trump’s U.S. Crypto Reserve News Brings Bulls Back