BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin (BTC) will likely benefit from the ongoing trade war and a US-China decoupling.

In a new interview with the host of the Forward Guidance YouTube channel, Felix Jauvin, Hayes says governments around the world will likely have to print money to offset the impacts of the trade war, which has ignited massive Bitcoin rallies in the past.

“China’s not alone. It’s every major economy needs to print a bunch of money to basically cushion the effects of this attempted divorce, this decline in globalization. But at the end of the day, yeah, they’re going to print money – Bitcoin benefits.

Now the reciprocal of the current account deficit in the US is our financial account surplus. And so all these dollars that got earned, the trillions of dollars that got earned selling stuff to America, got recycled into Treasury bonds and stocks and Mag 7, all the big US tech stocks. So mathematically, if [US President Donald] Trump is serious about reducing the current account to zero, then foreigners have to sell stocks – period. It’s just math.

And then the question is, okay, well, can the US government survive financially if there’s a big decline in capital gains taxes because the market’s not going up? I don’t think so. Therefore, we get a printing money function and Bitcoin benefits. It finally decouples from tech because of the structural flows and what needs to happen from an affordability standpoint for the US government.”

While some in the crypto space suggest the market turmoil may prompt central banks to start accumulating Bitcoin to diversify their asset holdings, Hayes believes central banks will continue to turn to gold as a hedge, not the flagship crypto asset.

“I actually don’t think that they’re mentally prepared for that sort of leap. They understand gold. They’ve been trained in gold. They’ve read history books about gold.”

Bitcoin is trading for $94,832 at time of writing, up 1.2% in the last 24 hours.

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Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX who now runs the family-office-style fund Maelstrom, believes the macro cocktail that ignited Bitcoin’s six-fold advance from late 2022 into early 2025 is being mixed again. Speaking on the “Forward Guidance” podcast just minutes after a market-soothing Trump press conference, Hayes said the present environment “feels like November 2022.”

Can Bitcoin Increase Sixfold Again?

In Hayes’s telling, the fulcrum of the next impulse is not the Federal Reserve but the US Treasury. “People forgot about the other side of the equation,” he argued. “Yellen printed two-and-a-half trillion dollars just by switching issuance to bills, and now Scott Bessent is talking about Treasury buybacks—another form of stealth quantitative easing that needs no input from the Fed.” Hayes cited his own arithmetic from the previous episode: between September 2022 and early 2025, Bitcoin rose roughly 6x while the Fed’s balance sheet was ostensibly shrinking, a move he attributes almost entirely to Treasury-engineered liquidity.

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That dynamic, he contends, has returned. The Trump administration’s initial “maximalist” tariff schedule, announced in mid-April and aimed at slashing the US current-account deficit, triggered a brief but violent sell-off in bonds and equities before Trump began “concession after concession.” The rapid policy retreat, Hayes said, confirms that “the American financial system is so highly levered it couldn’t take one week” of trade hardball. To him, that single week exposed the political impossibility of fiscal retrenchment and made additional money creation inevitable. “They can call it whatever they want—just don’t call it QE—but it has the same effect: liquidity rises and Bitcoin benefits.”

Hayes’s decoupling thesis rests on arithmetic as much as narrative. If tariffs do trim the current-account gap, the mirror-image financial-account surplus must also fall, reducing foreign demand for US mega cap stocks.

“Mathematically, if Trump is serious, foreigners have to sell stocks. Period,” he said. In that world, Bitcoin’s flows are driven not by equity beta but by a global scramble for neutral stores of value amid escalating currency and trade friction. He expects “US-tech exceptionalism” to fade just as Bitcoin’s structural bid strengthens.

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The former BitMEX chief also sees a latent tail-risk in Japan. A stronger yen, encouraged by Washington to help weaken the dollar, could force Japanese investors to unwind enormous USD carry trades, dumping Treasuries and pushing yields toward levels that would “corner the Fed into covert curve control.”

Any volatility spike of that kind, Hayes noted, historically elicits a rapid-fire response from the Federal Reserve—even if it arrives cloaked as a new alphabet facility rather than outright bond-buying. “Every time bond-market volatility spikes, the Fed does something,” he remarked. “It might not be QE in the traditional form, but it leads to the same outcome.”

Throughout the hour-long conversation Hayes returned to November 2022 as the template. Back then, markets were reeling from the aftermath of FTX and bond yields were surging, yet Bitcoin began a relentless grind upward as the Treasury tapped the reverse-repo basin for fresh cash. Today, he sees an echo: “This feels like November 2022,” he told host Felix Jauvin. “Shit’s going up.”

While Hayes stopped short of naming a price target, the implication was clear. In 2022–25 the stealth-liquidity wave took Bitcoin from roughly $16,000 to above $100,000. With Besson’s buyback machinery “ready to go” and political appetite for austerity already exhausted, Hayes says the stage is set for a sequel.

At press time, BTC traded at $92,559.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin bull and former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has shared that Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market will continue to rise.

Hayes revealed in a recent tweet that he has been avoiding altcoin investments despite their decreasing prices.

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Dominance Increase

Arthur Hayes has taken a clear stance on the current market situation. He is actively adding to his Bitcoin position while avoiding altcoin investments. Hayes also spoke about a potential interest rate cut in the U.S. and explained how it could happen in one of his recent tweets.

In his recent tweet, the former BitMEX CEO stated: “Been nibbling on $BTC all day, and shall continue. Shitcoins are getting in our strike zone but I think #bitcoin dominance keeps zooming towards 70%.”

Been nibbling on $BTC all day, and shall continue. Shitcoins are getting in our strike zone but I think #bitcoin dominance keeps zooming towards 70%. So we are not gorging at the shitcoin supermarket. Remember, money printing is the only answer they have.

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 7, 2025

Arthur Hayes specifically pointed to monetary policy as the driving factor behind his bullish Bitcoin outlook. He added: “So we are not gorging at the shitcoin supermarket. Remember, money printing is the only answer they have.” This comment suggests Hayes believes central bank policies will continue to favor Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

The 70% dominance target is a substantial increase from Bitcoin’s current market share. Such a shift would imply major capital flows from altcoins back into Bitcoin.

Whale Accumulation Reaches Peak Levels

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has identified a pattern of Bitcoin accumulation among the largest holders. According to their data, Bitcoin whales holding more than 10,000 BTC reached a nearly perfect accumulation score of approximately 1.0 at the month’s turn. This means that there is intense buying activity over a 15-day period.

Whales holding >10K $BTC briefly hit a perfect accumulation score (~1.0) at the turn of the month, reflecting intense 15-day buying. The score has since eased to ~0.65, still signaling steady accumulation.
Meanwhile, cohorts from <1 $BTC up to 100 $BTC have intensified their… https://t.co/cEo3F7Paid pic.twitter.com/7udA7G8nSM

— glassnode (@glassnode) April 7, 2025

While this peak accumulation score has since moderated to around 0.65, it still shows continued steady buying from these major market participants. This level of whale accumulation stands in stark contrast to the behavior of smaller Bitcoin holders.

Glassnode noted: “Meanwhile, cohorts from <1 $BTC up to 100 $BTC have intensified their distribution, all trending toward 0.1–0.2. A clear and widening divergence between small and large holders.”

This difference in behavior between large and small holders often precedes major market movements. Historically, periods where whales accumulate while retail sells have preceded bullish phases in the Bitcoin market cycle.

Bitcoin Establishes support at $74,000

Bitcoin price appears to have established a support level around $74,000, according to data shared by Glassnode. Their analysis comes at a time when Bitcoin and altcoins have lost double-digit value in the last 24 hours.

The data shows this price point aligns with “the first major supply cluster below $80K – over 50K $BTC at $74.2K.” This supply zone is primarily composed of investors who were active in the market for approximately five months.

The strength of this support level will be important for Bitcoin’s short-term price action as the market moves through its current volatility. If this support holds, it could be a foundation for a potential recovery toward previous highs.

OKX partner Ted has highlighted a key technical level that could decide Bitcoin’s next directional move. “BTC is trying to reclaim the weekly 50-EMA level. This has acted as a bull/bear line for BTC,” Ted noted on X.

$BTC is trying to reclaim the weekly 50-EMA level.

This has acted as a bull/bear line for BTC.

If BTC fails to reclaim it, expect a correction towards $69K-$70K (2021 highs), and even the $67K (Saylor average entry) level could be retested.

In case BTC reclaims this level, a… pic.twitter.com/CtsyZ7q3FH

— Ted (@TedPillows) April 7, 2025

According to his analysis, failure to reclaim this moving average could trigger further downside. He mentioned potential correction targets at “$69K-$70K (2021 highs) and even the $67K (Saylor average entry) level.” Conversely, successfully reclaiming the 50-EMA could spark a “relief rally.”

Ted’s analysis also comes at a time when the crypto liquidations breached $600 million and Bitcoin fell below the important $80,000 level.

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Vignesh Karunanidhi

Vignesh Karunanidhi is a seasoned crypto journalist with nearly 7 years of experience in the cryptocurrency industry. He has contributed to numerous publications, including WatcherGuru, BeInCrypto, Milkroad, and authored over 10,000 articles

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.