Markets
Bitcoin Price Trades Steady in Countdown to US Presidential Election
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3 hours agoon
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adminThe Bitcoin price seems to have settled into stasis, just 10 days before the U.S. presidential election. Now analysts are looking ahead to next week’s inflation figures and jobs report to as the next big catalyst for BTC price action.
Bitcoin has receded a bit since testing the $70,000 level earlier this week, and has settled at around $68,000, up 0.8% on the day and 0.5% on the week, per data from CoinGecko.
“After reaching a high of $68,850, Bitcoin corrected slightly towards the day’s end but maintained a strong price level,” BRN analyst Valentin Fournier said in a note shared with Decrypt. “This suggests a potential accumulation phase around $67,500, which could pave the way for a subsequent price surge.”
The price falling back a bit is to be expected, said Yuya Hasegawa, a market analyst at Japanese crypto exchange Bitbank.
“From a technical perspective, a little bit of pull back after a breakout is in line with the textbook and the market should not be too disappointed by this week’s price action,” he wrote in a note shared with Decrypt.
The world’s oldest and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has seen $30 billion worth of BTC change hands in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
Bitcoin braces for coming week
In the week ahead, Hasegawa said that traders should be looking ahead to the personal spending report—set to be released on Halloween, or October 31—and the jobs report on November 1.
Besides those reports, the Federal Reserve will next issue a decision on interest rates on November 7—just two days after the presidential election.
As of yesterday, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are still very close in the polls. FiveThirtyEight has Harris ahead slightly with 48.1% to Trump’s 46.4%.
On crypto betting site Polymarket, a whale recently placed a $2 million bet on Harris to win. Not long after there were reports that some of the platform’s biggest bettors on the election, which has ballooned to $2.4 billion bet, are facing more internal scrutiny.
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Has Less Than 10% Chance of Reaching $100K by Year-End, Options Market Data Shows
Published
7 hours agoon
October 25, 2024By
adminOptions-implied probabilities are calculated by using the Block-Scholes model or other pricing models that take into account factors like current spot market price, strike price, time to expiration, volatility, and the risk-free rate. Options-based probabilities are positively correlated with implied volatility: The greater the volatility, the higher the odds of bitcoin hitting certain levels.
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Bitcoin ETF
BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF is the Most Successful New ETF in 4 Years
Published
20 hours agoon
October 24, 2024By
adminEver since BlackRock filed for its spot Bitcoin ETF last year, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have been providing valuable insights and data regarding everything Bitcoin ETFs. If you’re not already following either of them on X, I highly recommend you do.
Today, Balchunas shared a new mind blowing statistic about BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT specifically. Over the last four years, there were over 1,800 ETFs launched in the United States. Out of all of those, IBIT has taken in the most inflows at over $26 billion dollars.
BlackRock had another giant inflow of $323 million yesterday, massively outperforming all its competitors. I’m not sure if it’s just their brand name alone that’s able to out compete the other ETFs, or if they’re marketing IBIT to their customers behind the scenes that is making their ETF a standout success. Probably a bit of both and then some.
These numbers once again highlight that spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a smashing success in America. Since launch, these ETFs have together seen inflows in 9 out of the last 10 months, and I feel like these inflows are not going to stop anytime soon, especially as we head further into the bull market.
While I would much rather see investors who hold their own keys, I understand that might not be suitable for large corporations and small retail investors who don’t want the responsibilities that come with self custody.
Whether you like it or not, the institutions are here and they are driving up the price of Bitcoin (for now). I’m super interested to see how these ETFs will hold up in a bear market, and if they will HODL or if we will see record outflows. Only time will tell.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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Markets
Bitcoin Bounces Above $67,000 as Traders Navigate a ‘Liquidity Hunt’ Post-Surge
Published
1 day agoon
October 24, 2024By
adminBitcoin’s price has rebounded from a ten-day low as traders attempt to gauge a short-term direction amid a “liquidity hunt” following last week’s surge to its near-all-time high.
The asset is trading relatively flat on the day to around $67,500 after dropping to as little as $65,160 on Thursday, CoinGecko data shows.
It comes as Bitcoin’s price breached $69,000 on Sunday—the asset’s all-time high, set on March 14, stands at just above $73,700.
That has some experts postulating the asset’s move lower this week may have been short-lived.
“We don’t see this necessarily as linked to U.S. election odds moving around but more of a natural liquidity hunt after a big move up last week,” Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at crypto fund manager Merkle Tree Capital, told Decrypt.
A liquidity hunt refers to the process where the market “flushes out” leveraged positions, particularly those with long exposure or traders betting on price increases.
When traders are leveraged long, a price reversal can force them to sell or liquidate their positions, creating downward pressure on an asset’s price. This is viewed as a healthy correction, clearing out speculative excess before the market can resume its upward trend, McMillin said.
“We expect we’ll retest the $70,000 resistance again soon, but we could have to wait until the U.S. election for a real breakout.”
The U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 could prove pivotal for the industry, with participants expecting either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris to introduce favorable regulations offering clearer guidance for businesses operating in the country.
It is already proving to be a boon for Bitcoin’s resilience in the lead-up to that date, experts told Decrypt.
While the election remains a tight-knit race, according to polling from FiveThirtyEight, which shows Trump is slightly ahead, Bitcoin’s price is expected to fluctuate between $63,000 and $68,000 in the final days.
That’s according to Pratik Kala, portfolio manager and head of research at digital asset fund manager Apollo Crypto.
“A decisive break above $71,000 will point to the market placing a high probability of a Trump win,” Kala told Decrypt.
It’s a view shared by others, including those at Singapore-based digital assets trading firm QCP Capital, which wrote in a note on Wednesday Bitcoin remains “well-supported with potential upside.”
“Given Trump’s more crypto-friendly stance, it’s no surprise that Bitcoin is trading higher,” it said.
The firm pointed to the convergence of the election and Non-Farm Payroll data scheduled for release on November 1, which is expected to show a modest increase in employment figures.
“All eyes are on the NFP release next Friday as uncertainty around the labor market persists,” QCP wrote. “As the last NFP report before the next Fed meeting, it will play a critical role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next move on interest rates.”
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