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Bitcoin Price Will Be ‘Range Bound’ While US Election Is Too Close to Call: Bernstein

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3 months ago

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The Bitcoin price trajectory is set to be heavily influenced by the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Bernstein on Tuesday said, suggesting that if former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, Bitcoin could soar to unprecedented levels, exceeding $80,000 to $90,000.

However, in the event of a Kamala Harris victory, the near-term outlook for Bitcoin could see a sharp decline, potentially testing a new low in the $40,000 range.

“We expect Bitcoin to continue reacting to election odds, and turn more positive, if it starts sensing better Trump odds, and become range bound, if the race continues as ‘too close to call,'” said Gautam Chhugani, Global Head of Digital Assets at Bernstein, in a note shared with Decrypt.

He added that while Trump has been more overt in his courting of crypto voters, “Harris has been more conservative in her stance on digital assets, which could result in less regulatory support for the industry in the near term.”

Bernstein’s analysis also factors in market sentiment, with the report mentioning that traders on decentralized betting platform Polymarket have significantly increased positions on a Trump victory. “While not a certainty, the odds have shifted meaningfully in Trump’s favor, which suggests traders are preparing for a Trump win and its impact on markets, especially in the crypto sector,” the report said.

As of now, Polymarket shows a 7% lead for Trump over Harris. Polymarket’s odds are often seen as a reflection of market sentiment, and recent shifts in favor of Trump may impact Bitcoin’s potential price movement in the near term.

It’s been mentioned before that Polymarket explicitly excludes U.S. users from its platform and that its blockchain roots might mean its users have an inherent bias for Trump, who’s made many more explicit campaign promises to the crypto industry than his opponent. But Bernstein disagrees for the simple reason that there’s too much money on the line.

“We believe, the Polymarket liquidity with more than $1.5 billion of bets is real money in play and bettors would bet on probability than actually reflecting their bias,” the analysts write.

They further highlighted that while both candidates support digital assets, Trump’s administration is expected to provide broader backing, especially in areas such as Bitcoin mining and institutional adoption. According to the report, Trump’s policies could lead to Bitcoin breaking its previous all-time high of $74,000, pushing the cryptocurrency to new heights.

“We anticipate that Bitcoin could touch $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump secures the presidency,” the analysts said. “However, if Harris wins, there’s a risk of Bitcoin testing the lower end of the $40,000 range in the near term, reflecting concerns over regulatory tightening.”

The report also emphasizes that the outcome of the election will have implications not only for Bitcoin but also for other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). “We expect other crypto assets to remain range-bound until there is more clarity post-election, with Bitcoin leading the market’s movement,” the report states.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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MicroStrategy Continues Weekly Bitcoin Buying Spree With Another $101 Million

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4 hours ago

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January 6, 2025

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Software company MicroStrategy is pushing forward with its Bitcoin buying spree in 2025, today snapping up more than $100 million worth of the orange coin.

An SEC filing and Monday announcement from the company’s co-founder and Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor showed that MicroStrategy spent $101 million buying 1,070 BTC at an average price of $94,004. That’s roughly half the amount of Bitcoin the company bought last week, consistent with the weekly buying trend that MicroStrategy started in November following the reelection of Donald Trump.

MicroStrategy now holds 447,470 Bitcoin in total. At today’s Bitcoin price of $101,832, that’s a stash worth over $45.5 billion. All told, the company bought their coins at an average price of $62,503, the announcement said.

Prediction markets last week were bullish that MicroStrategy would buy more Bitcoin today—and understandably so, given that that today’s purchase makes nine consecutively weekly buys for Saylor’s company.

On Myriad—a points-based prediction market and engagement platform developed by Dastan, parent company of an editorially independent Decrypt—users saw an 86% chance that MicroStrategy would hold at least 450,000 BTC before the end of this week. Those odds, though, have now tanked to just 20% as of this writing following the company’s announcement of a much smaller purchase relative to previous weeks.

On the Monday following Trump’s win, MicroStrategy announced it bought more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin. It then followed up the next week with another $4.6 billion, and then again with its single largest purchase yet of $5.4 billion the week after that.

The company has continued buying more Bitcoin every week since, but the individual amounts have gradually decreased in recent weeks as the price of Bitcoin has swelled. Users on Polymarket, a prediction market co-founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020, currently see only a 2% chance that MicroSrategy holds more than 500,000 BTC by Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

MicroStrategy was previously a software company that sold data-analyzing solutions to companies. It still does that, but Saylor has since rebranded the firm as a Bitcoin development company, leading with its Bitcoin treasury.

It all started in 2020, when covid lockdowns and record low interest rates threatened to hurt the company’s shareholders, according to Saylor. He decided to buy Bitcoin and has since argued that the asset—being scarce—is the best way to preserve wealth.

Now, MicroStrategy makes most of its money by securitizing the biggest cryptocurrency by market cap: investors wanting exposure to Bitcoin can buy shares of the company that trade on the Nasdaq—an arguably safer, more regulated way of crypto investing.

It is now the biggest publicly traded holder of the cryptocurrency and issues debt to buy Bitcoin—making a killing for investors in the process: MicroStrategy stock is up over 500% year-to-date.

But concerns have been raised about how viable this is if the price of Bitcoin were to tank: the company is highly leveraged and some analysts now believe the stock price may be overvalued.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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Bitcoin Magazine Pro

New Pi Cycle Top Prediction Chart Identifies Bitcoin Price Market Peaks with Precision

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5 hours ago

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January 6, 2025

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Bitcoin investors and analysts constantly seek innovative tools and indicators to gain a competitive edge in navigating volatile market cycles. A recent addition to this arsenal is the Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart, now available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Designed for professional and institutional investors, this chart builds on the widely recognized Pi Cycle Top indicator—a tool that has historically pinpointed Bitcoin’s market cycle peaks with remarkable accuracy.

Understanding the Pi Cycle Top Prediction Indicator

The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart enhances the concept of its predecessor by projecting future potential crossover points of two key moving averages:

  1. 111-day Moving Average (111DMA)
  2. 350-day Moving Average multiplied by two (350DMA x2)

By calculating the rate of change of these two moving averages over the past 14 days, the tool extrapolates their trajectory into the future. This approach provides a predictive estimate of when these two averages will cross, signaling a potential market top.

Historically, the crossover of these moving averages has been closely associated with Bitcoin’s cycle tops. In fact, the original Pi Cycle Top indicator successfully identified Bitcoin’s previous cycle peaks to within three days, both before and after its creation.

Implications for Market Behavior

When the 111DMA approaches the 350DMA x2, it suggests that Bitcoin’s price may be rising unsustainably, often reflecting heightened speculative fervor. A crossover typically signals the end of a bull market, followed by a price correction or bear market.

For professional investors, this tool is invaluable as a risk management mechanism. By identifying periods when market conditions might be overheating, it allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure to Bitcoin and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Key Prediction: September 17, 2025

The current projection estimates that the moving averages will cross on September 17, 2025. This date represents a potential market top, offering investors a timeline to monitor and reassess their positions as market dynamics evolve. Users can view this projection in detail by hovering over the chart on the Bitcoin Magazine Pro platform.

The Pi Cycle Top Prediction indicator was conceptualized by Matt Crosby, Lead Analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro. It builds on the original Pi Cycle Top indicator, created by Philip Swift, Managing Director of Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Swift’s Pi Cycle Top has become a trusted resource among Bitcoin analysts and investors for its historical accuracy in identifying market peaks.

Investors interested in a deeper exploration of market cycles can also refer to:

Video Explainer and Educational Resources

For a comprehensive explanation of the Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart, investors can watch a detailed video by Matt Crosby, available here. This video provides an overview of the methodology, practical applications, and historical context for this predictive tool.

Why This Matters for Professional Investors

In a market as dynamic and unpredictable as Bitcoin, professional investors require sophisticated tools to anticipate and respond to significant market shifts. The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart offers:

  • Data-Driven Insights: By leveraging historical data and predictive modeling, the chart delivers actionable insights for portfolio management.
  • Timing Precision: The ability to estimate cycle tops with a high degree of accuracy enhances strategic decision-making.
  • Risk Mitigation: Early warning signals of market overheating empower investors to protect their portfolios from potential downside risks.

As Bitcoin matures into an asset class increasingly adopted by institutional investors, tools like the Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart become essential for understanding and navigating its unique market cycles. By integrating this chart into their analytical toolkit, investors can deepen their insights and improve their long-term investment outcomes.

To explore live data and stay informed on the latest analysis, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.





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SPX6900 price rockets to ATH: will SPX hit $2 soon?

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6 hours ago

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January 6, 2025

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The SPX6900 token continued its strong uptrend on Monday, reaching an all-time high with a market cap exceeding $1.42 billion. SPX6900 (SPX) traded above $1.56 on Jan. 6, rising more than 250% from its November low, making it the tenth-largest…



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