Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range, consolidating below the $85,000 mark and holding above the $81,000 support zone. Bulls are making efforts to reclaim higher levels and spark a recovery rally, but persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and growing concerns over global trade tensions continue to weigh on market sentiment.

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The lack of momentum in either direction has left Bitcoin range-bound for the past several sessions. However, optimism remains among futures traders. According to recent data, 60.52% of traders with open Bitcoin positions on Binance Futures are currently holding long positions, suggesting a majority still believe in an upside breakout.

This bullish leaning among leveraged traders highlights growing expectations that Bitcoin could recover once broader market sentiment improves. Still, the consolidation pattern remains in place until BTC can break decisively above the $85K level and target $88K or higher.

If bulls fail to reclaim resistance soon, the risk of a breakdown below $81K increases, potentially triggering a deeper correction. As uncertainty dominates headlines, Bitcoin remains at a crossroads, and traders continue to watch closely for a catalyst to drive the next major move.

Bitcoin Investors Split On Market Direction As Long Positions Dominate Futures

After months of volatility and a sharp correction from Bitcoin’s January all-time high, some market participants are preparing for a prolonged bear market. Sentiment among this group is driven by persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, erratic global policy shifts, and rising concerns of recession, all of which have shaken confidence across both crypto and traditional markets.

However, a more optimistic view persists among analysts who argue that the current price action is simply a healthy correction within a larger bull cycle. They believe that Bitcoin is undergoing a standard consolidation phase following its parabolic move in late 2024. The structural fundamentals supporting Bitcoin—including growing institutional interest and broader adoption—remain intact.

Supporting this view, top analyst Ali Martinez shared a key metric on X: the Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio on Binance Futures. Martinez revealed that 60.52% of traders with open BTC positions are currently leaning long, signaling a bullish sentiment among futures traders.

This bullish skew in leveraged positions suggests that a potential breakout may be on the horizon. If bulls can reclaim resistance levels near $88K and push above the $90K mark, it could confirm the start of a recovery rally and help restore confidence.

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Until then, indecision continues to dominate the market, and Bitcoin remains trapped in a tight range where both scenarios—a deeper correction or a bullish breakout—remain on the table.

BTC Price Range Narrows As Key Resistance Holds Strong

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $84,200 after several days of tight consolidation between the $87,000 resistance and the $81,000 support level. Despite recent attempts to push higher, bulls have struggled to break through key resistance, leaving the price range bound and vulnerable to sudden volatility.

Currently, BTC sits approximately 4% below the 4-hour 200-day Moving Average (MA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). These indicators, now acting as dynamic resistance around $87,300, are widely watched by traders as crucial short-term trend signals. Reclaiming this zone as support could be the catalyst for a recovery rally toward the $90,000 mark, helping shift sentiment back in favor of the bulls.

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However, the failure to break above this technical ceiling raises concerns. If price action remains weak and fails to retake the 200 MA and EMA in the coming sessions, the likelihood of a drop below the $81,000 support increases. Such a move would not only trigger fresh selling pressure but could also send BTC into deeper correction territory.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView 

Crypto stocks are caught in a brutal free fall, mirroring the market-wide slump in Bitcoin and altcoins.

Coinbase, the biggest crypto exchange in the U.S., has crashed from nearly $350 per share in November to $190. This decline has brought its market cap from $86 billion to $48 billion—a $38 billion wipe out.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, has also shed billions of dollars in value. Its market cap dipped from a high of $106 billion last year to $79 billion today. The company, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has continued to accumulate Bitcoin and now holds 499,226 Bitcoins in its balance sheet. 

Robinhood stock crashed from $66.85 earlier this year to $45, erasing $18 billion in value. While Robinhood is known for providing retail trading, it has become a major player in the crypto market. It hopes to play a bigger role in the sector when it completes its BitStamp acquisition later this year. 

Bitcoin (BTC) mining stocks have also plunged as the struggling BTC price hurts margins. Mara Holdings, formerly known as Marathon Digital, has lost over $4.6 billion in valuation. Other similar companies like Riot Blockchain, Core Scientific, CleanSpark, Hut 8 Mining, and TeraWulf have also shed billions in valuation.

Bitcoin, altcoin prices plummet

These crypto stocks have dropped because of the ongoing decline of Bitcoin and other altcoins. According to CoinMarketCap, the market cap of all cryptocurrencies has dropped from over $3.7 trillion in 2024 to $2.7 trillion today. 

Bitcoin has dropped from $109,300 in January to $85,000 at last check. Most altcoins have done worse. For example, Solana meme coins have shed over $18 billion in value as their combined market cap sank. 

Crypto prices and crypto stocks have dropped despite the Trump administration’s pledge to be highly supportive of the sector via initiatives like a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

The Securities and Exchange Commission has also enacted some friendly policies and ended most of the lawsuits in the industry. It has ended lawsuits brought on companies like Coinbase, Ripple Labs, and Kraken.

Whether these crypto stocks bounce back remains to be seen. Crypto analysts have a mixed outlook on the industry. Some observers expect Bitcoin’s price to recover, with Standard Chartered predicting it will hit $500,000 over time.

Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant’s founder, estimates that the crypto bull run has ended, noting that all indicators were bearish.

After reaching an all-time high above $100,000, the Bitcoin price has entered a multi-week downtrend. This correction has naturally raised questions about whether Bitcoin is still aligned with the 2017 bull cycle. Here we’ll analyze the data to assess how closely Bitcoin’s current price action correlates with previous bull markets, and what we can expect next for BTC.

Bitcoin Price Trends in 2025 vs. 2017 Bull Cycle

Bitcoin’s price trajectory since the cycle lows set during the 2022 bear market has shown remarkable similarities to the 2015–2017 cycle, the bull market that culminated in Bitcoin reaching $20,000 in December 2017. However, Bitcoin’s recent downtrend marks the first major divergence from the 2017 pattern. If Bitcoin were still tracking the 2017 cycle, it should have been rallying to new all-time highs over the past month, instead, Bitcoin has been moving sideways and declining, suggesting that the correlation may be weakening.

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Despite the recent divergence, the historical correlation between Bitcoin’s current cycle and the 2017 cycle remains surprisingly high. The correlation between the current cycle and the 2015–2017 cycle was around 92% earlier this year. The recent price divergence has reduced the correlation slightly to 91%, still an extremely high figure for financial markets.

How Bitcoin Market Behavior Echoes 2017 Cycle Patterns

The MVRV Ratio is a key indicator of investor behavior. It measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s current market price and the average cost basis of all BTC held on the network. When the MVRV ratio rises sharply, it indicates that investors are sitting on significant unrealized profits, a condition that often precedes market tops. When the ratio declines toward the realized price, it signals that Bitcoin is trading close to the average acquisition price of investors, often marking a bottoming phase.

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The recent decline in the MVRV ratio reflects Bitcoin’s correction from all-time highs, however, the MVRV ratio remains structurally similar to the 2017 cycle with an early bull market rally, followed by multiple sharp corrections, and as such, the correlation remains at 80%.

Bitcoin Price Correlation with 2017 Bull Cycle Data

One possible explanation for the recent divergence is the influence of data lag. For example, Bitcoin’s price action has shown a strong correlation with Global Liquidity, the total supply of money in major economies; however, historical analysis shows that changes in liquidity often take around 2 months to reflect in Bitcoin’s price action.

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By applying a 30-day lag to Bitcoin’s price action relative to the 2017 cycle, the correlation increases to 93%, which would be the highest recorded correlation between the two cycles. The lag-adjusted pattern suggests that Bitcoin could soon resume the 2017 trajectory, implying that a major rally could be on the horizon.

What 2017 Bull Cycle Signals Mean for Bitcoin Price Today

History may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Bitcoin’s current cycle may not deliver 2017-style exponential gains, but the underlying market psychology remains strikingly similar. If Bitcoin resumes its correlation with the lagging 2017 cycle, the historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin could soon recover from the current correction, and a sharp upward move could follow.

Explore live data, charts, indicators, and in-depth research to stay ahead of Bitcoin’s price action at Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.