Earlier this month, the European Central Bank (ECB) published a paper in which the authors claim the existence of Bitcoin could impoverish non-holders and latecomers.

Specifically, they wrote:

“Since Bitcoin does not increase the productive potential of the economy, the consequences of the assumed continued increase in value are essentially redistributive, i.e. the wealth effects on consumption of early Bitcoin holders can only come at the expense of consumption of the rest of society.”

It drew the ire from many bitcoiners, including Frank in his Take… but isn’t this essentially what hyperbitcoinization is? If bitcoin becomes the money of the world, HODLers become the new wealthy elite while the fiat bag holders would effectively go broke, right?

The real crux, I think, lies in the first part of the quote. Many bitcoiners, including myself, believe that Bitcoin in fact would increase the productive potential of the economy. (There are several reasons for this, but a big one is that it gets rid of fiat currency’s Cantillon effect, which largely benefits governments.)

If it had been possible in 2009 to swap all fiat currency in the world for bitcoin so everyone received a representative share (thus no redistributive effects), that may arguably have been preferable… but the ECB economists would still be against it: they just don’t see the benefit of bitcoin in the first place.

Since Satoshi Nakamoto had no way to swap everyone’s fiat for bitcoin even if he wanted to, it makes sense that he launched the project the way he did, allowing anyone to adopt this superior money whenever that fits their individual risk-appetite.

If the ECB economists believe there is a better way to distribute this new form of money, I’d suggest they use their Cantillon-funded salaries to write a paper about that.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Seeing Bitcoin’s price rally as Donald Trump takes the lead on the world’s largest prediction market, Polymarket, made me do some research on what Polymarket is and who uses it.

And now I have to say — I believe that Polymarket leans pro-Trump. We need to account for that bias, and here’s why.

Let’s look at some data. Polymarket shows Trump surging to a massive 28% lead over Harris. Another prediction marketplace, Kalshi, also shows Trump leading by 18%. Meanwhile, most other polls have a tight race. This huge skew makes no sense – unless Polymarket’s user base is disproportionately pro-Trump.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Pro-#Bitcoin Donald Trump takes the biggest lead in the election so far, up by 28.8% in the odds: Polymarket pic.twitter.com/0m1FOG2pNL

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) October 22, 2024

Which it is. Polymarket only allows crypto betting and blocks US users. This filters its audience toward offshore Bitcoin and crypto enthusiasts or US crypto users who use VPNs, and studies show that crypto users tend to lean conservative.

And with Trump pledging to Implement crypto-friendly policies, he is a no-brainer for Bitcoin and crypto users.

Some add that Trump’s bets are part of “a coordinated effort to change the perception of this race.”

This may also be the case, but it should be clear that Polymarket polls are biased.

Does this make Polymarket corrupt? I don’t think so. It offers insightful predictive data and it’s a free market platform where anyone can bid if they think otherwise. Which makes it one of the best tools to know the market sentiment.

But anything showing Trump or Harris with a massive lead at this point in the election should warrant scepticism. Traders can recognise and exploit this bias. I’d look to buy Harris, anticipating the race tightening as election day nears. Polymarket odds should normalise closer to even odds.

In summary, Polymarket caters to Trump-friendly Bitcoin and crypto crowds, which distorts its election odds substantially compared to other polls. Knowing this, some people can capitalise accordingly.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

This morning, River announced its Bitcoin Interest on Cash feature through which it will offer a 3.8% interest rate — paid out in bitcoin — on the dollars you leave in the custody of the platform, which is FDIC insured up to $250,000.

This yield is comparable to what you’d earn in a high-yield savings account through an online bank like Ally, but again, you’re earning bitcoin with River.

If you’re like me, a Bitcoin enthusiast who still likes to keep a sizable cash buffer in case of emergency, this is a pretty sweet deal. See, I have one of those high-yield savings accounts through Ally, and I tell myself I’m going to take the yield I earn each month and buy bitcoin with it, though, I rarely remember to do this.

Now, with River, I can essentially automate that process, allowing River to convert that filthy fiat yield into bitcoin for me at the end of each month.

(Well technically, I can’t do this because I live in New York State, one of only two US states in which River doesn’t serve clients. We have this thing in New York — a land once home to free people but that is now drowning in bureaucracy — called the “BitLicense,” which makes it quite difficult for Bitcoin startups to do business in the state, but I digress.)

There are no monthly fees or minimums to get started using this product, and users can withdraw their cash whenever they please.

This isn’t just something for Bitcoiners to celebrate, but it’s also a great way to onboard normies to Bitcoin, most of whom are scared to buy bitcoin because of its volatility. Now, they don’t have to buy it; they can just earn it for holding onto the type of money they’re much more used to holding.