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BTC Likely To Rally 20% This Chinese New Year If History Repeats
Bitcoin News: The flagship crypto has been on the investors’ radar lately, with BTC recording a gain of over 3% today. Amid this, a recent report hints toward a potential BTC rally by 20% during the Chinese New Year, citing historical trends. Besides, it also comes amid soaring market optimism over a potential Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and pro-crypto regulations in the US, especially after Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Bitcoin News: Why BTC Can Rally This Chinese New Year?
The Chinese New Year has proven to be a bullish period for Bitcoin. In 11 out of the last 12 years, Bitcoin delivered positive returns during this festive season, achieving an 83% success rate, Matrixport reported. The report attributes this trend to heightened trading activity, as families and investors exchange gifts and funds, driving demand for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the on-chain analytics firm highlights China’s dominance in Bitcoin’s early days. By 2014, the country controlled nearly 70% of global Bitcoin trading, fueled by strict capital controls, speculative investments, and large-scale mining operations. Besides, the Chinese tech sector played a pivotal role, in building mining rigs and increasing the number of validation nodes globally.
In addition, the report noted that as more people learn about and buy Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency gains momentum. However, few events rival the Chinese New Year in amplifying this network effect.
Major Technical, Macroeconomic, & Global Factors At Play
Matrixport noted that Bitcoin’s current price is influenced by conflicting forces. On the technical side, oversold indicators suggest potential support, while weekly metrics point to overbought conditions. On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies and tightening liquidity present challenges. However, expectations of the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve under a pro-crypto Trump presidency offer bullish support.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump made a flurry of pro-crypto promises during his election campaign, which bolstered market sentiment. Besides, the US SEC has also rescinded the SAB 121 crypto accounting rule, which has further fueled market sentiment.
On the other hand, Trump has recently reiterated his stance on making the US the crypto capital. Besides, his pro-crypto focus is also evidenced by the recent executive order to create a national digital asset stockpile.
Simultaneously, Matrixport noted that stablecoin minting remains subdued post-December’s FOMC meeting, signaling limited fiat inflows. However, funding rates for Bitcoin show early signs of recovery. This delicate balance has kept Bitcoin prices in a consolidation phase, poised for potential breakout opportunities.
Can BTC Surge 20% This Chinese New Year?
The Chinese New Year, starting January 29, marks a statistically significant period for Bitcoin. In 2022 and 2023, Bitcoin surged by 26% and 23%, respectively, reinforcing the reliability of this seasonal trend.
Meanwhile, Matrixport analysts emphasize this period as the “most favorable 20-day window” for Bitcoin, offering promising opportunities for long positions. With daily reversal indicators signaling potential, many traders see the festive season as a unique catalyst for growth. Having said that, a BTC rally by 20% is likely if the history repeats this year.
However, investors remained cautious, given some recent Bitcoin news that has dampened the market sentiment. For context, recent reports of China dumping its BTC holdings have added to concern this week amid a volatile market trend.
What’s Next For Bitcoin Price?
BTC price today delivered more than a 3% gain to trade at $105,489, with its trading volume soaring 65% to $99 billion. Notably, the crypto has touched an all-time high of $109K on Trump’s inauguration day, reflecting the market’s growing confidence. However, the current Relative Strength Index stands at 61, signaling a strong uptrend momentum for the crypto.
In addition, the recent market trends and global leaders’ shifting focus towards BTC could further boost the ongoing rally in the asset. Notably, a recent Bitcoin price analysis also hints towards a potential rally for the crypto to $120K, indicating the strong confidence of the market participants.
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Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Ethena price remains concerningly eyed by crypto market participants against the backdrop of a severe bearish trajectory. ENA erased nearly 4% in the past 24 hours, in sync with a renowned market maker dumping over $10 million worth of tokens. Thus, traders and investors anticipate additional short-term volatility in the coin, whilst it recently faced rejection at a key resistance of $0.48.
Ethena Price Gains Bearish Momentum, Here’s Why
On-chain data from Arkham Intelligence on March 22 signaled that market maker Amber Group deposited $10.35 million worth of ENA to Binance. Out of the deposits, $2.5 million worth of tokens were acquired from the same crypto exchange two weeks ago. This accumulation took place at an average price of $0.3979.
On the other hand, Amber Group received $7.85 million worth of coins from the Ethena Claim address. These tokens were received between April 2024 and July 2024.
For context, the market maker’s massive dump to Binance impacts a crypto’s supply dynamics. In turn, market participants expect short-term volatility in price. However, speculations of a bolstered movement also prevail as this endeavor will increase liquidity and trading volumes, thereby magnetizing investors.
Ethena Token Unlocks: Another Vital Barrier For Price?
Simultaneously, ENA tokenomics faces additional heat amid massive token unlocks recorded this month. Notably, Cryptorank’s data flagged 2.06 billion coins, worth 13.9% of the total supply, unlocked on March 5.
Meanwhile, 94.19 million coins, worth 0.63% of the asset’s total supply, were unlocked on March 2. These unlocks substantially increase the asset’s market supply, negatively impacting demand and price sentiments.
Another massive unlock of 94.19 million coins is set to occur on April 2. Further, 171.85 million tokens will be unlocked on April 5. As a result, traders and investors reflect highly concerning sentiments surrounding Ethena price action ahead as the supply inflates.
How Is The Crypto Delivering As The Month Ends?
At the time of reporting, Ethena price crashed nearly 4% and exchanged hands at $0.3581. The coin bottomed and peaked at $0.3497 and $0.3763 in the past 24 hours. Notably, the waning price action comes in sync with Amber Group’s massive dump to the top crypto exchange.
Whereas, the weekly and monthly charts show a dip of 1% and 11%, respectively. The broader slumping action falls in line with the massive token unlocks mentioned above.
Renowned market trader and analyst Sjuul/AltCryptoGems took to X, revealing that ENA again faced crucial resistance at $0.48, slamming the chances for a pump ahead. “If bulls fail to defend this demand, it would be a pretty bad sign,” the analyst concluded amid bearish dynamics taking over.
Additionally, an Ethena price prediction by CoinGape indicated that the crypto’s 3-month bias indicator is tilting in favor of bears. This has further pushed traders and investors to take a cautious trading approach on the token.
Coingape Staff
CoinGape comprises an experienced team of native content writers and editors working round the clock to cover news globally and present news as a fact rather than an opinion. CoinGape writers and reporters contributed to this article.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Bitcoin (BTC) price volatility is slowing down as the coin’s capitulation continues. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price was changing hands for $84,278.83 as it pared off the losses accrued in earlier trading. At this pace, the question now hinges on whether BTC can form sustainable support at the $84,000 price mark or whether further drawdown lies ahead.
Core Bitcoin Price Metric to Watch
According to Glassnode data, BTC Short-Term Holders (STH) are under increasing pressure. This group’s unrealized losses have surged, pushing many STH coins into losses. As revealed, their holdings are now nearing the two-standard deviation threshold.
Despite this outlook, the data platform hinted that losses remain within historical bull market bounds. Specifically, it noted that these losses are less severe than the May 2021 sell-off from the all-time high. Glassnode said the rolling 30-day losses for STH have topped $7 billion. It confirmed that “this remains well below prior capitulation events, such as the $19.8B and $20.7B losses in 2021-22.”
BTC price jumped to an ATH above $109,000 in January but has since dropped by 22.79%. While experts predicted a drop of over 35%, the limited loss from holders can form a good rebound basis.
BTC Price Bottom In, Here Are Triggers for Rally
Over the past week, Bitcoin has rallied within very tight price ranges, from a low of $81,300 to a high of $87,320. Some market observers believe the coin has attained its floor price and might be set for a rebound.
While firms like Strategy have kept Bitcoin purchase plans alive with Strife’s perpetual stock offering, the Global Money Supply M2 also lays a positive basis for growth. With the current outlook, the projection that the $83,00 level is the BTC price floor is resounding among analysts.
The shift in regulation and the backing of Bitcoin by President Donald Trump creates a tailwind for the coin’s proponents. At the Digital Asset Summit earlier this week, President Trump reiterated the plan to make the US the crypto capital of the world.
Several government agencies have shifted their policies in this regard, which might attract investors in the long term.
How High Can Bitcoin Valuation Rise?
Despite the slowdown in growth in recent weeks, many market leaders are still confident in the coin’s prospects. As reported earlier by CoinGape, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan maintained the price target of $1 million by 2029. He cited a longer-term reaction to macroeconomic uncertainties as the basis for his prediction.
While this Bitcoin price prediction appears lofty, others believe Bitcoin may cross $200,000 once the bull rally returns. With spot Bitcoin ETF hype and other growing institutional adoption, BTC price has an arguably bright future.
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Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Despite the recent attempt by the bulls, Ethereum price has struggled to regain past $2,000 levels recently. Market analysts believe that there’s enough possibility that ETH could see another 50% drop to $1,000 as some early ETH whales resolve to heavy profit booking.
Ethereum Price Struggles to Regain $2,000
Amid the overall market uncertainty, Ethereum continues to face some selling pressure as bulls fail to regain control over $2,000 levels. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has stated that investors should maintain caution before building fresh positions in ETH.
“Ethereum hits $2,000. Cool, but zoom out! The big picture is brewing something bigger,” Martinez stated. As per the below chart shared by Martinez, if bulls fail to hold the Ethereum price above $2,050, it risks further falling to the next support at $1,500, and even below all the way to $1,095 levels, per his recent ETH price prediction.
As of press time, the ETH price is trading 2.26% down at $1,973 with its daily trading volume dropping over 40% to $12.21 billion. Furthermore, the ETH futures open interest has also dropped 4% under $20 billion. A recent ETH price prediction also hints that the crypto will hover near $2K for some time ahead.
Early ETH Whale Sells 34,125 Coins
Blockchain analytics platform SpotonChain reported that a major ETH whale appears to have secured a massive profit of $65.66 million, marking a staggering 4,156% return on investment. The whale’s holdings date back to March 2017 when they acquired the ETH from platforms like Changelly, Bitfinex, ShapeShift, and Binance at an average cost of just $46.3 per token.
The whale, identified as “0x086,” deposited its entire ETH holdings of 34,125 ETH to crypto exchange Coinbase a few hours ago. This transaction happened at an average Ethereum price of $1,970.
Currently, the ETH whale activity remains mixed as some big players are moving it from exchange and moving it to staking to earn the extra yield. These are specifically the long-term ETH holders holding with diamond hands.
BlackRock Explains Why Ethereum ETFs Are Struggling
Despite Ethereum price eyeing a relief rally past $2,000, there’s no major relief for spot Ethereum ETFs. The outflows have continued through March 2025 so far, highlighting a major drop in institutional sentiment.
While speaking at the Digital Asset Summit (DAS) in New York City, BlackRock’s head of digital assets Robbie Mitchnick explained the real reason behind this fall. Mitchnick suggested that the ETFs could have performed better if they had included staking, noting that the absence of this feature made the launch “less perfect.”
“A staking yield is a meaningful part of how you can generate investment return in this space. And all the [Ether] ETFs, of course, at launch did not have staking,” he said.
On Thursday, crypto asset manager Bitwise filed a proposal to introduce staking on Ethereum ETFs. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has proposed amendments to allow the listing and trading of shares for the Bitwise Ethereum ETF, incorporating staking capabilities.
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Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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