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Crypto Faces Uncertainty As Trump’s ‘Short-Term Pain’ Unfolds

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US President Trump’s outspoken acceptance of near-term economic hardship has placed risk assets—including Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market—under mounting pressure. According to a thread by The Kobeissi Letter on X, President Trump’s strategy revolves around tolerating significant “short term pain” in order to drive down inflation and facilitate the refinancing of over $9 trillion in US debt.

Will Crypto Survive Trump’s ‘Short-Term Pain’ Strategy?

The impact on cryptocurrencies has been immediate and pronounced. While US equities have shed an estimated $5 trillion in market value this year, digital assets have also suffered steep losses. Since President Trump’s inauguration on January 21, Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by approximately -23%, Ethereum (ETH) has tumbled by roughly -43% and the broader crypto market has experienced even more dramatic price drops.

Although high volatility is nothing new in crypto, the synchronized downturn suggests that crypto assets are not immune to macroeconomic forces. The Kobeissi Letter adds, “Based on our research, President Trump made this conclusion BEFORE inauguration. However, he began formally articulating it on March 6th. Below is the headline that destroyed investor confidence in 2025. President Trump is no longer the ‘stock market’s President’ (for now).”

The Kobeissi Letter points to March 9 as the date President Trump further confirmed his stance by noting that America is in a “period of transition” and that it will “take a little time,” implying a willingness to tolerate near-term market turbulence. During this period, Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s statement on March 6—“Stock market not driving outcomes for this admin”—was followed by Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remark, “Not concerned about a little volatility.”

Although The Kobeissi Letter’s analysis notes that the administration’s viewpoint solidified before inauguration, it cites President Trump’s urgent focus on the year 2025, when $9.2 trillion in US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced. The thread states, “First, as we have previously noted, the US is facing a massive refinancing task. In 2025, $9.2 TRILLION of US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced. The quickest way to LOWER rates ahead of this colossal refinancing would be a recession.”

Beyond debt concerns, The Kobeissi Letter also highlights the administration’s drive to reduce oil prices and the US trade deficit as part of the same economic calculation. Since President Trump took office, oil has fallen by over 20%. “Furthermore, a clearly defined part of President Trump’s strategy has been to LOWER oil prices. Oil prices are down 20%+ since Trump took office. This morning, Citigroup said oil prices falling to $53 would lower inflation to 2%. What would lower oil prices? A recession.”

Meanwhile, the administration’s extensive use of tariffs, which The Kobeissi Letter describes as “levying tariffs on almost ALL US trade partners,” is chipping away at GDP growth estimates, further hinting that a deliberate slowdown is in motion.

The Kobeissi Letter also notes, “On top of this, DOGE and Trump are attempting to cut TONS of government jobs. These are the same jobs that have accounted for much of the recent job ‘growth’ in the US. Government jobs have risen by 2 million over the last 4.5 years. Cutting these jobs will spur a recession.” DOGE leader Elon Musk appears resigned to short-term declines. Even after Tesla (TSLA) recorded its seventh-largest historical drop on March 10, Musk posted that “It will be fine long-term.”

For crypto traders and investors, the “short term pain” scenario by Trump is currently dictating the price action. The question, the analysts from The Kobeissi Letter posit, is whether this will lead to a more favorable economic landscape in the long run. “Is the ‘short term pain’ worth the ‘long term gain’ in President Trump’s economic strategy?”.

At press time, the BTC price remained under heavy downward pressure and traded at $82,000.

Bitcoin price
BTC stalls below key resistance, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com



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Bitcoin Price Eyes $200,000 Breakout If This History Aligns

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The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is undergoing bullish consolidation at the moment after the intense selloff in the broader market cooled off. The current outlook shows relief for a coin that dropped as low as $76,624.25 in the past week. Per the historical trend of BTC prices, this consolidation might be a buildup to a massive rally for the top coin.

Bitcoin Price and Potential $200,000 Play

When writing, the BTC price changed hands for $83,927.24, up by 1.38% in 24 hours. The coin has jumped from a low of $82,017.90 to a high of $84,725.32, a show of brewing breakout.

Market analyst Rekt Capital analyzed whether this current price is a short-term relief. He spotlighted a trend from June 2021, when the price of Bitcoin was consolidating between the 21-week EMA and the 50-week EMA. The consolidation came just after a crash.

About a week ago, the BTC price crashed, triggering millions in liquidation across the market. Following this price slump, the coin is consolidating between the same EMA showcased by Rekt Capital. 

In June 2021, Bitcoin prices increased from $33,000 to $42,000. This gives an average price of $37,500. From here, the coin jumped by over 123.95% to its current price of $83,927.24. If history repeats, Bitcoin Bitcoin may soar to almost $187,280 or approximately $200,000.

BTC Price and Accumulation Trend

According to market data from Glassnode, Bitcoin currently has a high of 0.1. According to the market analytics platform, this figure indicates sustained buying pressure despite the market selloff.

Rather than steer clear of the market, Glassnode hinted that the coin’s distribution remains dominant overall. Other onchain indications also point to reboot from BTC proponents. IntoTheBlock data points to a 5.34% surge in large transactions to $34.7 billion.

This whale transaction is important as it shows a trend shift among market players that can impact prices. It is also complemented by the 24% surge in BTC trading volume of crypto exchanges, a sign of sustained positive sentiment.

What Next for the Crypto Market?

The growth or fall in the price of Bitcoin has a way of impacting the broader market. In an earlier cryptocurrency price prediction, the impact of Trump and Putin’s peace deal over Ukraine was considered. Experts are convinced the broader market may ignite a bullish rally if the conversations turn positive.

Although spot Bitcoin ETF market has been showcasing outflows over the past week, the coin is positioned to be the biggest beneficiary in this shift. While the Rekt Capital historic forecast teases $200,000, experts like Cathie Wood predict deflationary boom for the market, riding on massive BTC adoption rate by institutions and governments.

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Godfrey Benjamin

Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalists who relish writing about the real life applications of blockchain technology and innovations to drive general acceptance and worldwide integration of the emerging technology. His desires to educate people about cryptocurrencies inspires his contributions to renowned blockchain based media and sites. Benjamin Godfrey is a lover of sports and agriculture.

Follow him on X, Linkedin

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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A Saint Patrick’s Day Price History

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From $5 to $83,000 – The Digital Gold Rush Continues

Bitcoin has come a long way since trading at just $5.34 on Saint Patrick’s Day in 2012. Now, in 2025, the world’s largest digital currency has reached $83,223 on this holiday, marking a staggering 1,558,000% increase in just 13 years. With institutional adoption surging and supply remaining fixed, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory appears stronger than ever.

A Look at Bitcoin’s Explosive Growth

Bitcoin’s price movements in the early years was anything but predictable. In just one year, from 2012 to 2013, BTC skyrocketed 780%, reaching $47. The next year, it surged again to $630, a 1,240% increase from 2013.

However, Bitcoin’s price swings have been sharp. By 2015, it had retraced to $290, but by 2017, it climbed to $1,180, and in just one more year, it hit $8,321—a 605% increase. Even after a pullback to $4,047 in 2019, the next five years saw Bitcoin go from $5,002 in 2020 to $83,223 in 2025.

2012 $5.34

2013: $47

2014: $630

2015: $290

2016: $417

2017: $1,180

2018: $8,321

2019: $4,047

2020: $5,002

2021: $56,825

2022: $41,140

2023: $26,876

2024: $68,845

2025: $83,223

Why Bitcoin’s Price Keeps Rising

Despite its volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains upward, driven by increasing demand and fixed supply. Unlike fiat currencies, which governments can print indefinitely, Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins. As more individuals, institutions, and even governments adopt Bitcoin, scarcity drives prices higher.

Several major factors are contributing to Bitcoin’s growing adoption in the last year:

The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve – United States Senator Cynthia Lummis and Congressman Nick Begich both introduced legislation to green light the U.S. to purchase 1,000,000 BTC for their strategic reserves, further solidifying its legitimacy and causing other countries potential FOMO in.

Corporate Adoption – Companies like Strategy, Metaplanet, and Rumble continue adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, treating it as a strategic reserve asset.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs – The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. has opened the floodgates for institutional investment, allowing hedge funds, pension funds, and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin through regulated financial products.These ETFs have collectively purchased over 1 million BTC.

Halving – On April 19th, 2024, Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving event, where the block reward for those mining Bitcoin was cut in half from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block. This decrease in the amount of daily new bitcoin issued on the market historically leads to an increase in the price of BTC. Bitcoin halvings occur roughly every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years).

What’s Next?

With demand skyrocketing and supply shrinking due to upcoming Bitcoin halvings, Bitcoin seems poised to continue its historic rise in price. If history is any indicator, the best time to buy Bitcoin was years ago—the second-best time might be today.



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Michael Saylor’s MSTR Purchases 130 Additional BTC

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Strategy (MSTR) marginally added to its massive bitcoin (BTC) holdings, selling a modest amount of its preferred stock (STRK) to fund the acquisition.

The company last week purchased 130 bitcoin for roughly $10.7 million, or an average price of $82,981 each, according to a Monday morning filing. The so-called “BTC yield” is 6.9% year-to-date, according to Strategy.

Company holdings are now 499,226 bitcoin acquired for a total of $33.1 billion, or an average cost of $66,360 per token.

This latest purchase was funded by the sale of 123,000 shares of STRK, which generated about $10.7 million of net proceeds. Strategy last week announced a mammoth $21 billion at-the-market offering of that preferred stock.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.





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