It turns out Polymarket is a crystal ball, which can predict certain events with nearly 90% accuracy, according to a Dune dashboard compiled by New York City-based data scientist Alex McCullough.

McCullough studied Polymarket’s historical data and removed markets with probabilities above 90% or below 10% after outcomes were already known but not yet settled, to keep the analysis accurate, according to a Dune dashboard summary.

Polymarket slightly but consistently overestimates event probabilities across most ranges, potentially due to biases like acquiescence bias, herd mentality, low liquidity, and participant preference for high-risk bets, McCullough’s research found.

Longer-term markets, ones that ask bettors to consider an event far-out, look more accurate because they include many outcomes that are clearly unlikely, making predictions easier, McCullough explained in an interview with Polymarket’s The Oracle blog.

McCullough gives the example of Gavin Newsom becoming president (a question with $54 million in volume) during the last election to show that longer-term Polymarket markets often include obviously predictable outcomes, like Newsom clearly not winning, which boosts the platform’s accuracy numbers for these long-term predictions.

In contrast, head-to-head sports markets, which have fewer extreme outcomes such as long-shot presidential candidates, and a more balanced distribution, present a clearer representation of predictive accuracy, McCullough found, showing notable improvements in accuracy as events unfold and revealing periodic accuracy spikes.

Sports is a growing sector for Polymarket, with nearly $4.5 billion in collective volume wagered on the outcomes of the NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League finals, according to data portal Polymarket Analytics.

McCullough’s findings about the accuracy of Polymarket are likely to be of interest in Ottawa, where Polymarket shows that new Liberal Party of Canada leader Mark Carney now has a significant lead over his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre, even more than what poll aggregators are showing.

Crypto markets are experiencing a modest move to the upside following today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, in which the U.S. central bank left interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 4.5% in the last 24 hours and is now trading for $85,500, its highest point since March 9.

The CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization except for stablecoins, memecoins and exchange coins — is up 6%. Ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) have both surged by 7%, while Ripple’s XRP token has risen 10% off the back of CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s announcement that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is planning to drop its case against the company.

Crypto stocks are also doing relatively well, especially bitcoin mining companies like Bitdeer (BTDR) and Core Scientific (CORZ), which are up 10% and 8% on the day, respectively. Bitdeer is likely buoyed from the technological progress it recently made in its ASIC manufacturing process, as well as from the news that stablecoin giant Tether was increasing its stake in the company to 21%.

Core Scientific, meanwhile, is potentially reaping the benefits of AI firm CoreWeave (Core Scientific’s main customer) filing for an initial public offering earlier in the month. Even so, both companies are down more than 61% and 53% since January and November respectively.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that tariff-related inflation was likely to be transitory and that recession risks remained low. And despite the market reacting positively to the meeting — Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones all gained 1% or more — market commentators weren’t necessarily convinced.

“The word — ‘transitory’ — is back at the Federal Reserve as Chair Powell characterizes the price effects of tariffs as a one-off,” economist Mohamed A. El-Erian posted on X. “I would have thought that, particularly after the big policy mistake of earlier this decade and given all the current uncertainties, some Fed officials would show greater humility. It’s simply too early to say with any regress of confidence that the inflationary effects will be transitory.”

Gold continued to rise after surpassing the $3,000 mark on Tuesday and today hit a new record above $3,050. Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, said that the U.S. central bank was signaling that any additional rate cuts would likely happen at the cost of battering stocks. “The Fed is no longer comfortable gliding to neutral as we get closer to their inflation target. I think you can argue that the soft landing is over,” she posted.