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Crypto Markets Are Misreading Trump’s Strategic Reserve: Bitwise

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The crypto markets have whipsawed following President Donald Trump’s unexpected announcement of a strategic crypto reserve over the weekend. Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO), Matt Hougan, contends that traders are overreacting to the proposed plan’s details and missing what could be a bullish development for digital assets.

Late Sunday, President Trump revealed a United States government initiative to acquire and hold five different cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Cardano—in a strategic reserve. Initially, the market response was emphatically positive: Bitcoin’s price surged from around $85,000 to $95,000. However, as Hougan notes in his latest investor memo, that initial optimism was short-lived. By Monday, the major crypto assets named in the announcement had surrendered their gains.

Everyone Is Misjudging Trump’s Crypto Reserve

Bitwise released its memo on March 4, titled “The Market Has This Wrong: Thoughts on Trump’s Strategic Crypto Reserve.” In it, Hougan points to overly narrow market interpretations as the principal cause behind the abrupt retracement. “The market is overthinking things. For all the flaws in the rollout, the reserve news is bullish.”

He elaborates on why the proposal is not being greeted with lasting enthusiasm. A large part of the skepticism centers on the White House’s choice of five cryptocurrencies, which critics describe as an overly broad selection. In Hougan’s words: “The inclusion of speculative assets like Cardano feels more calculating than strategic.”

Although the plan initially seemed like a vote of confidence from Washington, some crypto commentators—such as Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Castle Island Ventures Founder Nic Carter—have questioned the rationale behind broadening the reserve beyond Bitcoin. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley also weighed in shortly after the announcement, publicly expressing a preference for a more conservative, bitcoin-centric reserve.

Despite this, Hougan’s memo argues that market participants may be failing to see the bigger picture. In the memo, Hougan outlines three major takeaways regarding the strategic reserve plan.

Hougan suggests that President Trump’s first public draft often differs considerably from what eventually becomes policy. The reserve, he argues, might ultimately shift to a “bitcoin-only” approach or evolve to a more balanced composition following industry input. “Over the coming days, big names from the crypto industry will make their feelings felt about the reserve idea.”

According to Hougan, the announcement further cements the perception of Bitcoin as a strategically important asset. He believes this could spur competing nations to follow suit, mirroring smaller-scale adoption already seen in El Salvador, Bhutan, and Abu Dhabi. “If you are Honduras, Mexico, or Guatemala, and you’re watching El Salvador and now the US acquire bitcoin, can you really afford to be at zero?”

Hougan also points to the political calculus, suggesting that even a future administration with different views might not divest the reserve once it exists. He notes that the US has historically held onto strategic assets, such as gold, for extended periods. “We learned this in the last election, where the GOP’s courtship of crypto gained it many votes while Democratic hostility gained few. I suspect that any crypto that is purchased will be held for a very long time.”

Despite the optimism, Hougan acknowledges the prospect that the pushback could become so intense that the reserve is either scaled down or scrapped. Critics say that including less-established assets alongside Bitcoin only muddies the waters and may undermine the legitimacy of the initiative. Hougan, however, believes that “the final reserve will be nearly entirely bitcoin, and it will be larger than people think.”

He also underscores a broader point: The simple acknowledgment by the US government that crypto assets can be deemed “strategic” has potentially game-changing significance. In his view, such a designation could catalyze global adoption, spurring other countries to purchase crypto or ramp up holdings already in place.

According to Hougan, Sunday’s announcement should be interpreted as bullish for digital assets—despite the complicated rollout and the resulting price swings. He warns that markets might be letting short-term controversies overshadow the bigger picture: “The US government declaring crypto assets ‘strategic’ is bullish. I think the market will eventually realize that.”

As the White House prepares for a scheduled Crypto Summit this Friday—hosted by crypto czar David Sacks—industry voices will likely press for a more measured and possibly narrower reserve structure. Whether the final policy ultimately narrows to a bitcoin-focused plan or persists with multiple coins, Hougan believes it may still mark a meaningful step forward in the mainstream legitimization of crypto. The initial reaction may have been mixed, but, as he succinctly puts it, “after the dust settles, I suspect the final reserve will look pretty good.”

At press time, BTC traded at $87,565.

Bitcoin price
BTC price, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com



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Bitcoin Rally To $95K? Market Greed Suggests It’s Possible

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Bitcoin is on everyone’s crosshairs once more. The cryptocurrency shot up to $88,500 today, exciting traders who think the price will rise to $95,000 in the near term. But while optimism is high, so is caution. Some analysts are warning that a retreat back to $80,000 may occur before the next major rally starts.

Traders Show Signs Of Greed

Market intelligence platform Santiment reports that greed is building among crypto investors. References of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 or even as high as $159,000 have surged through social media platforms. While hope is generating all the excitement, Santiment reminds that such peaks in greed generally precede an imminent price adjustment.

Traders had also been holding back earlier in the year when Bitcoin fell to a low of $78,000. But that recent spike back to $88,500 does appear to have changed the general sentiment. Santiment suggests this might be an ideal time for traders to consider taking profits.

Miners Hold Onto Bitcoin Reserves

Bitcoin miners appear to be confident about the future. According to data from CryptoQuant, miners have not been selling much of their Bitcoin recently. In fact, miner reserves now total 1.81 million BTC, which is worth around $159 billion.

Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, confirmed in a comment on X that no significant selling activity has been recorded among miners over the past 24 hours. This behavior could be a sign that miners are expecting higher prices and prefer to hold onto their earnings for now.

BTC market cap currently at $1.75 trillion. Chart: TradingView.com

Institutional Interest Grows With ETF Inflows

Institutional investors are also playing a big role in the market’s momentum. On March 25, Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US recorded a total daily inflow of $27 million. BlackRock, one of the largest asset management firms, led the way with $42 million in inflows that day.

Whereas some other funds such as Bitwise and WisdomTree experienced $10 million and $5 million outflows respectively, the robust demand for BlackRock helped in nudging the general trend into positive direction. BlackRock’s net assets in its Bitcoin spot ETF are currently at a little over $50 billion, demonstrating that institutional investors still have a passion for Bitcoin.

Analysts Expect Short-Term Fall Before Rally

Technical analysis is indicating Bitcoin might experience a temporary decline before the next peak. On its 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is having a difficult time surpassing a trendline of resistance, creating what experts refer to as a “double top” formation. The pattern suggests the potential for a price drop towards $85,000.

Meanwhile, the most important support level is at $86,146, according to the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level. If Bitcoin manages to stay above this level, analysts indicate that the price may rebound and move towards $95,000.

Featured image from Gemini Imagen, chart from TradingView





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Crusoe Energy sells Bitcoin mining arm to NYDIG, turns focus to AI

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United States-based Bitcoin miner Crusoe Energy is wrapping up its Bitcoin mining business as it plans to shift focus towards the artificial intelligence sector.

According to a recent press release, Crusoe will sell 425 of its modular data centers— spanning sites across Colorado, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah, Texas, and Argentina — with a combined 270 megawatts of power generation capacity, to the New York Digital Investment Group.

The deal also includes its Digital Flare Mitigation business, and around 135 employees will transition to NYDIG.

“Our innovative approach to energy utilized for mining is uniquely complementary to NYDIG’s bitcoin custody, institutional trading and mining businesses, creating a consolidated business that is more valuable than the sum of its parts,” Chase Lochmiller, CEO and co-founder of Crusoe, said regarding the acquisition.

NYDIG, which already has a strong presence in Bitcoin custody, trading, and mining, plans to continue operating and investing in the newly acquired business. In a separate announcement, the firm said the move will help support Bitcoin’s proof-of-work mechanism and contribute to the network’s long-term security.

Founded in 2018, Crusoe Energy was among the first U.S. Bitcoin mining firms to harness wasted natural gas to fuel the high-performance computing needed for both crypto mining and AI workloads. 

Now, the company says it’s ready to shift gears and focus on scaling its AI infrastructure.

“We will continue to channel the same energy-first mentality towards scaling AI infrastructure and accelerating the adoption and proliferation of AI in our everyday lives,” Lochmiller added.

Signs of a transition to AI had already emerged in 2024, when Crusoe announced a multibillion-dollar deal with energy tech firm Lancium to build a 200-megawatt AI data center in Abilene, Texas.

Touted as the “first phase” of a larger expansion, the facility was set to tap into up to 1.2 gigawatts of clean power and support GPU clusters designed for AI training and inference at scale.

At the time, Lochmiller called the project a unique opportunity to “sustainably power the future of AI.” Although a specific launch date wasn’t confirmed, the facility was expected to go live in 2025.

Crusoe’s transition to AI comes at a time when the U.S. government is also turning its attention to the sector. Since returning to office in 2025, President Donald Trump has signed an executive order aimed at encouraging American leadership in artificial intelligence.



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What Next For XRP, DOGE as Bitcoin Price Action Shows Bearish Double Top Formation

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery looks to have run out of steam with an emergence of a double top bearish reversal pattern on the short duration price charts.

BTC peaked near $87,400 last week, with prices pulling back to around $84,000 on Friday and staging a recovery to above $87,000 before stalling again. This sequence of two prominent peaks at roughly the same level, separated by a trough, hints at a classic double top formation. This bearish pattern often signals the end of an uptrend.

(CoinGecko)

(CoinGecko)

The double top pattern typically requires confirmation through a decisive drop below the “neckline,” the support level between the two peaks, which lies at around $86,000.

Should this occur, BTC could decline toward $75,000 or lower in the short term. However, long-term charts continue to indicate the asset remains in an ascending range.

Traders reacted positively to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on inflation and a cooldown in concerns around the upcoming U.S. tariffs, which have supported gains in the past week.

However, the lack of altcoin correlation with BTC’s recent moves hints that the current price action might lack broad market support, raising the possibility of a “fakeout” rally.

A potential drop in BTC will likely spread over to major tokens, denting recent gains and hopes of a lasting rally. Dogecoin (DOGE), heavily influenced by market sentiment and speculative trading, could see amplified losses if bitcoin’s bearish pattern plays out, while XRP might see reduced momentum, especially given its sensitivity to market sentiment and regulatory developments.

Solana could be particularly sensitive due to its recent volatility and technical indicators — with it coming close to forming a “death cross” (a bearish signal where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day) in mid-April, a pattern that historically leads to deeper losses.

For now, bitcoin hovers in a critical zone. A weekly close below $84,000 could confirm the bearish double top scenario, while a push above $87,500 might invalidate it, potentially reigniting bullish momentum.





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