Bitcoin’s price trajectory has become a significant point of interest in light of the recent downtrend, which has disappointed many bullish traders. According to on-chain analytics platform IntoTheBlock, the recent price crash up to the current price has seen over 6.5 million BTC addresses falling into losses. Still, technical analysis suggests Bitcoin could experience further drops. 

The question is whether Bitcoin will test the $70,000 mark before regaining strength or can rebound from here toward a $300,000 price target. Insights from price structure and historical patterns help provide a clearer picture of what’s next.

Bitcoin Price Decline: A Normal Cycle Within Uptrends

Despite concerns over Bitcoin’s recent price swings, crypto analyst Philip (BasicTradingTV) maintains that the market is behaving normally within a long-term bullish structure. He highlights that on the higher monthly timeframe, Bitcoin continues to create higher highs and higher lows and maintains a solid uptrend that dates back to 2017. 

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This technical outlook, which was noted on the TradingView platform, comes as a response to concerns about whether BTC is still bullish after the ongoing 25% correction from its recent all-time high. 

Traders have been unsettled following the recent drop, but historical trends suggest this kind of movement is part of the market’s natural cycle. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is still forming a bullish market structure, and while short-term fluctuations may continue, the broader uptrend channel from 2017 is still in place. Furthermore, the analyst noted previous instances of 25% and 40% corrections during Bitcoin’s rallies from the lower trendline of this uptrend channel.

What’s Next For BTC? Possible Retest Of Resistance Before Rally To $300,000

With the notion of a long-term uptrend still intact, the analyst noted, however, that Bitcoin could continue its downtrend until it reaches $70,000. This level holds significant importance, as it previously marked Bitcoin’s all-time high before turning into resistance around mid-2024. After multiple attempts, Bitcoin eventually broke through this resistance toward the end of the year, leading to its new all-time high of $108,786 in January 2025.

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As such, this $70,000 level is now a major psychological support zone, making it a key area to watch amidst the ongoing Bitcoin price correction. From here, the analyst predicted a rebound that would send BTC to reach as high as $300,000. “Levels to watch: 70.000, $300.000,” the analyst said.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $82,555, having spent the majority of the past 24 hours trading between $79,947 and $83,436. This leaves Bitcoin still about 14% away from testing the $70,000 support level.

However, there is also the possibility that BTC may not drop as low as $70,000 before bullish sentiment takes over once again. If Bitcoin continues to follow the trajectory of past cycles, Fibonacci extensions point to price targets between $150,000 and $300,000.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has been struggling with lower lows in recent weeks, leaving many investors questioning whether the asset is on the brink of a major bear cycle. However, a rare data point tied to the US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) suggests that a significant shift in market dynamics may be imminent. This bitcoin buy signal, which has only appeared three times in BTC’s history, could point to a bullish reversal despite the current bearish sentiment.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
Bitcoin: This Had Only Ever Happened 3x Before

BTC vs DXY Inverse Relationship

Bitcoin’s price action has long been inversely correlated with the US Dollar Strength Index (DXY). Historically, when the DXY strengthens, BTC tends to struggle, while a declining DXY often creates favorable macroeconomic conditions for Bitcoin price appreciation.

Despite this historically bullish influence, Bitcoin’s price has continued to retreat, recently dropping from over $100,000 to below $80,000. However, past occurrences of this rare DXY retracement suggest that a delayed but meaningful BTC rebound could still be in play.

Bitcoin Buy Signal Historic Occurrences

Currently, the DXY has been in a sharp decline, a decrease of over 3.4% within a single week, a rate of change that has only been observed three times in Bitcoin’s entire trading history.

To understand the potential impact of this DXY signal, let’s examine the three prior instances when this sharp decline in the US dollar strength index occurred:

• 2015 Post-Bear Market Bottom

The first occurrence was after BTC’s price had bottomed out in 2015. Following a period of sideways consolidation, BTC’s price experienced a significant upward surge, gaining over 200% within months.

The second instance occurred in early 2020, following the sharp market collapse triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar to the 2015 case, BTC initially experienced choppy price action before a rapid upward trend emerged, culminating in a multi-month rally.

• 2022 Bear Market Recovery

The most recent instance happened at the end of the 2022 bear market. After an initial period of price stabilization, BTC followed with a sustained recovery, climbing to substantially higher prices and kicking off the current bull cycle over the following months.

In each case, the sharp decline in the DXY was followed by a consolidation phase before BTC embarked on a significant bullish run. Overlaying the price action of these three instances onto our current price action we get an idea of how things could play out in the near future.

Equity Markets Correlation

Interestingly, this pattern isn’t limited to Bitcoin. A similar relationship can be observed in traditional markets, particularly in the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. When the DXY retraces sharply, equity markets have historically outperformed their baseline returns.

The all-time average 30-day return for the Nasdaq following a similar DXY decline stands at 4.29%, well above the standard 30-day return of 1.91%. Extending the window to 60 days, the Nasdaq’s average return increases to nearly 7%, nearly doubling the typical performance of 3.88%. This correlation suggests that Bitcoin’s performance following a sharp DXY retracement aligns with historical broader market trends, reinforcing the argument for a delayed but inevitable positive response.

Conclusion

The current decline in the US Dollar Strength Index represents a rare and historically bullish Bitcoin buy signal. Although BTC’s immediate price action remains weak, historical precedents suggest that a period of consolidation will likely be followed by a significant rally. Especially when reinforced by observing the same response in indexes such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the broader macroeconomic environment is setting up favorably for BTC.

Explore live data, charts, indicators, and in-depth research to stay ahead of Bitcoin’s price action at Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Crypto analyst Tony Severino has warned that the Bitcoin price risks a further crash. This came as he revealed a critical technical indicator, which has turned bearish for the flagship crypto, although he noted that BTC bulls can still invalidate this current bearish setup. 

Bitcoin Price At Risk Of Further Crash As S&P Monthly LMACD Turns Bearish

In an X post, Severino indicated that the Bitcoin price could crash further as the S&P 500 monthly LMACD has begun to cross bearish and the histogram has turned red. This development is significant as IntoTheBlock data shows that BTC and the stock market still have a strong positive price correlation.  

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The crypto analyst stated that BTC bulls can turn this bearish setup for the Bitcoin price in the next 20 days, as diverging would lead to a bullish setup instead. However, the Bulls’ failure to turn this around for Bitcoin could lead to a massive decline for the flagship crypto, worse than it has already witnessed. 

Severino stated that a confirmation of this bearish setup at the end of the month could kick off a bear market or Black Swan type event similar to what happened when the last two crossovers occurred. It is worth mentioning that BTC has already crashed to as low as $76,000 recently, sparking concerns that the bear market might already be here. 

However, crypto experts such as BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes have suggested that the bull market is still well in play for the Bitcoin price. Hayes noted that BTC has corrected around 30% from its current all-time high (ATH), which he remarked is normal in a bull run. The BitMEX founder predicts that the flagship crypto will rebound once the US Federal Reserve begins to ease its monetary policies. 

BTC Still Looking Good Despite Recent Crash

Crypto analyst Kevin Capital has suggested that the Bitcoin price still looks good despite the recent crash. In his latest market update, he stated that BTC remains the best-looking chart and that everything is going according to plan for the flagship crypto. The analyst predicts that Bitcoin could still come down and test the range between $70,000 and $75,000, which he claims would still be completely fine. 

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Kevin Capital remarked that the Bitcoin price could remain afloat if it holds a key market structure and the 3-day MACD resets. He added that some decent macro data could help the flagship crypto stay above key support levels. The US CPI data will be released today, which could provide some relief for the market if it shows that inflation is slowing. The analyst is confident that one good inflation report and the FOMC can help turn the tides. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $81,860, up over 2% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com