Bitcoin’s price trajectory is once again capturing headlines, and this time the catalyst appears to be global liquidity trends reshaping investor sentiment. In a recent comprehensive breakdown, Matt Crosby, Lead Analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, presents compelling evidence tying the digital asset’s renewed bullish momentum to the expanding global M2 money supply. His insights not only illuminate the future of Bitcoin price but also anchor its macroeconomic relevance in a broader financial context.

Bitcoin Price and Global Liquidity: A High-Impact Correlation

Crosby highlights a remarkable and consistent correlation—often exceeding 84%—between Bitcoin price and global M2 liquidity levels. As liquidity increases across the global economy, Bitcoin price typically responds with upward movement, although with a noticeable delay. Historical data supports the observation of a 56–60 day lag between monetary expansion and Bitcoin price increases.

This insight has recently proven accurate, as Bitcoin price rebounded from lows of $75,000 to above $85,000. This trend closely aligns with the forecasted recovery that Crosby and his team had outlined based on macro indicators, validating the strength and reliability of the correlation driving Bitcoin price upward.

Why the 2-Month Delay Impacts Bitcoin Price

The two-month delay in market response is a critical observation for understanding Bitcoin price movements. Crosby emphasizes that monetary policy and liquidity injections do not immediately affect speculative assets like BTC. Instead, there is an incubation period, typically around two months, during which liquidity filters through financial systems and begins to influence Bitcoin price.

Crosby has optimized this correlation through various backtests, adjusting timeframes and offsets. Their findings indicate that a 60-day delay yields the most predictive accuracy across both short-term (1-year) and extended (4-year) historical Bitcoin price action. This lag provides a strategic advantage to investors who monitor macro trends to anticipate Bitcoin price surges.

S&P 500 and Its Influence on Bitcoin Price Trends

Adding further credibility to the thesis, Crosby extends his analysis to traditional equity markets. The S&P 500 exhibits an even stronger all-time correlation of approximately 92% with global liquidity. This correlation strengthens the argument that monetary expansion is a significant driver not just for Bitcoin price, but also for broader risk-on asset classes.

By comparing liquidity trends with multiple indices, Crosby demonstrates that Bitcoin price is not an anomaly but part of a broader systemic pattern. When liquidity rises, equities and digital assets alike tend to benefit, making M2 supply an essential indicator for timing Bitcoin price movements.

Forecasting Bitcoin Price to $108,000 by June 2025

To build a forward-looking perspective, Crosby employs historical fractals from previous bull markets to project future Bitcoin price movements. When these patterns are overlaid with current macro data, the model points to a scenario where Bitcoin price could retest and potentially surpass its all-time highs, targeting $108,000 by June 2025.

This optimistic projection for Bitcoin price hinges on the assumption that global liquidity continues its upward trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s recent statements suggest that further monetary stimulus could be deployed if market stability falters—another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth.

The Rate of Expansion Affects Bitcoin Price

While rising liquidity levels are significant, Crosby stresses the importance of monitoring the rate of liquidity expansion to predict Bitcoin price trends. The year-on-year M2 growth rate offers a more nuanced view of macroeconomic momentum. Although liquidity has generally increased, the pace of expansion had slowed temporarily before resuming an upward trend in recent months.

This trend is strikingly similar to conditions observed in early 2017, just before Bitcoin price entered an exponential growth phase. The parallels reinforce Crosby’s bullish outlook on Bitcoin price and emphasize the importance of dynamic, rather than static, macro analysis.

Final Thoughts: Preparing for the Next Bitcoin Price Phase

While potential risks such as a global recession or a significant equity market correction persist, current macro indicators point toward a favorable environment for Bitcoin price. Crosby’s data-driven approach offers investors a strategic lens to interpret and navigate the market.

For those looking to make informed decisions in a volatile environment, these insights provide actionable intelligence grounded in economic fundamentals to capitalize on Bitcoin price opportunities.

For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $83,500 zone. BTC is now consolidating gains and might attempt to clear the $85,500 resistance.

• Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $83,500 zone.
• The price is trading above $83,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $84,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair could start another increase if it clears the $85,500 zone.

Bitcoin Price Eyes More Gains

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $82,500 zone. BTC formed a base and gained pace for a move above the $83,000 and $83,500 resistance levels.

The bulls pumped the price above the $84,500 resistance. A high was formed at $85,850 and the price recently started a downside correction. There was a move below the $84,000 support. The price dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $78,600 swing low to the $85,850 high.

However, the bulls were active near the $83,000 zone and the price recovered losses. Bitcoin price is now trading above $83,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $84,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $85,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $85,500 level. The next key resistance could be $86,200. A close above the $86,200 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $87,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $88,000 level.

Another Rejection In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $85,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $84,200 level and the trend line. The first major support is near the $83,200 level.

The next support is now near the $82,200 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $78,600 swing low to the $85,850 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $81,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $80,800.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $84,200, followed by $83,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $85,500 and $85,850.

As Bitcoin (BTC) recovers from its five-month low, the cryptocurrency attempts to reclaim the $84,000 resistance. Some market watchers suggest that more volatility could be around the counter, as the price is compressing between two key levels.

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Bitcoin Retests 4-Month Downtrend Line

Over the past week, Bitcoin has been trading between the $74,000-$84,000 price range following the recent tariff war-related volatility. After hitting a one-week high of $84,720, the flagship crypto hit a five-month low of $74,773, driven by this week’s market correction.

Amid this performance, the cryptocurrency risked a 13.7% drop to the $69,000 support, as it generally needs a daily close above the $78,500 level for a potential short-term rebound. However, BTC’s price has surged 13.5% since Monday’s lows and attempted to reclaim the $84,000 resistance.

The market recovery was fueled by US President Donald Trump’s 90-day pause on the trade tariffs for over 75 nations, which saw the crypto market and stock prices jump 6%-10% in an hour this Wednesday.

Nonetheless, the tariffs-driven rally slowed Thursday, with Bitcoin retracing nearly 5% to the $79,000 support. Analyst Alex Clay asserted that despite the bullish rally, BTC’s price needed to reclaim the broken $80,000 support and break through the descending 4-month resistance as its short-term structure continued looking bearish.

During BTC’s 7% surge in the past 24 hours, the analyst highlighted the key support zone held, invalidating his bearish scenario. However, a breakout and reclaim confirmation of the $84,000 remained crucial for BTC’s price.

BTC Preparing For More Volatility?

Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin successfully retested the $78,500 support, but its price was rejected from the 4-month downtrend resistance. Therefore, the flagship crypto’s price is now compressing between these two levels, which usually “precedes volatility.”

The analyst also noted that BTC is “developing yet another Higher Low on the RSI while forming Lower Lows on the price.” During this cycle, the cryptocurrency has formed multiple bullish RSI divergences in the daily chart, each preceding a reversal to the levels.

Bitcoin’s Daily RSI equaled 2022 Bear Market RSI levels (RSI=23.93) when price crashed into the high $70,000s. The only lower Daily RSI in this cycle was back in August 2023 (RSI=18.28). Throughout this cycle, each visit into sub-25 RSI resulted in a trend reversal to the upside over time.

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Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez suggested that BTC could see a retrace back to the $74,000 support zone. He observed that Bitcoin’s movements within its weekly range display a W-shape to the upper boundary, and its price action seemed to be forming an M-shape after Thursday’s retrace and Friday’s jump, which eyes the range’s lower boundary.

On the contrary, the analyst also highlighted Bitcoin’s Friday performance, affirming that it “is slicing through key resistance at $82,360.” Notably, BTC’s price then jumped toward the $84,000 barrier, hitting a daily high of $84,220 before retracing to the $83,500 mark. According to Martinez, “A sustained breakout could open the door to $91,500.”

As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $83,640, a 1% decline in the weekly timeframe.

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com