bear market

Don't Buy The Bitcoin Dip

Published

13 hours ago

January 9, 2025

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With bitcoin’s price dipping significantly below $100k again, the “buy the dip” cheerleaders are out in full force.

But I’m here to offer a different perspective: Don’t buy the dip.

Before I continue, let me please make it clear that nothing that I write in this Take is investment advice.

Why would I say such a thing? Is it that I hate bitcoin all of a sudden?

No.

I have other reasons for making such a statement.

The first is that I’m trying to keep you from becoming exit liquidity for people like this:

Don’t worry guys.
The retards are coming. pic.twitter.com/1YL8keRHYa
— Breadman (@BTCBreadMan) January 8, 2025

The second is that I like to buy bitcoin when it’s truly selling at a discount, not just when it appears to be selling at one.

Let me explain.

Right now, bitcoin is trading about 13% off of its all-time highs. While that may be a significant discount for an asset in the world of traditional finance, it’s hardly more than a daily fluctuation in the world of bitcoin.

In the four-year bitcoin cycles, bitcoin’s price tends to skyrocket during the years of and after its halving. And then the year that follows tends to be pretty terrible for bitcoin’s price. During that year, bitcoin’s price hits a low, which tends to be in the range of the prior cycle’s high.

That was a bit confusing, so let me give you an example.

In 2022, the last “pretty terrible” year, bitcoin’s price dropped to about $15,500, which was actually about $3,500 lower than bitcoin’s top from the previous cycle — $20,000.

If something comparable were to happen in 2026, we’d see bitcoin’s price at approximately $53k (23% below the previous cycle’s all-time high of $69k). Now, that would be a significant discount and a dip worth buying.

I don’t share this perspective to dissuade you from continuing with something like a dollar-cost averaging bitcoin investment strategy (one of the best strategies out there for the average retail investor). Instead, I share it because if a loved one came to me and asked me if now was a good time to buy bitcoin, I’d say “not really.”

I try to maximize the financial upside (in fiat terms) of investing in bitcoin as much as possible for those who ask me about investing in it — especially those who are new to it. And while I could maybe help someone trade in and out of a bitcoin position in the next year or so, I don’t like to do this, as I encourage people to buy and hold bitcoin for the long haul.

But, Frank, the U.S. might announce a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and other nations may follow suit! And look at all the companies buying bitcoin for their treasuries!

Yes, these things are happening, and so are things like Bhutan selling bitcoin and so have things like Germany selling bitcoin and Tesla selling bitcoin.

Up until now, all bitcoin price cycles have been similar. So, while it looks like we have another year of bitcoin price upside in store for us, I think we drop far lower than this current price level when the tables turn.

And that’s when I’ll be proactively buying.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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bear market

Crypto Bull Market Much Closer To End Than We Realize, Warns Analyst Jason Pizzino

Published

2 weeks ago

December 27, 2024

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A closely followed analyst says the crypto bull market’s end is much closer than most traders realize.

In a new thread on the social media platform X, Jason Pizzino tells his 123,400 followers that investor sentiment indicates traders now are closer to the end of the bull market than the start.

“Bitcoin and crypto ‘end-stage’ emotional volatility has dramatically increased which only suggests we are much closer to the end than the beginning of the cycle.

That might seem like an obvious statement now, but wait until the market gets closer to the final top; it won’t be so obvious which is generally a signal within itself.”

In an accompanying video update, Pizzino says historically, when the market gets excited and overconfident, stagnation tends to follow.

“I think a lot of people believe this cycle should run until the end of 2025, but what if we’re seeing a lot of that excitement come back into the market?

Every time it goes up, all I see is just everyone getting super bullish and then it pauses for a bit, corrects, and then we start on the next move. So I’m just keeping an open mind.”

GfiO4c2bgAADMvd — Source: Jason Pizzino/X

The trader’s chart uses Bitcoin (BTC) as an example. According to Pizzino, the top crypto asset by market cap may correct or trade sideways all the way until October 2025.

“Looking somewhere [between] Q2 out to Q3, just the beginning of Q4… Most people can’t handle six to 10 months.

They talked about a drop of one month and they all freaked out yesterday, it’s absolutely bonkers out there, which is why I think we are in those final moves, basically the end of the cycle.”

BTC is trading at $98,900 at time of writing, a marginal increase on the day.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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American HODL

Buying Bitcoin Is Easy, HODLing Is the Hard Part

Published

3 weeks ago

December 18, 2024

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Follow Nikolaus On &Xopf; Here For Daily Posts

HODLing bitcoin is so simple, yet it’s one of the most difficult and challenging things to do.

HODLing bitcoin is a choice. You have to wake up every day and choose to continue HODLing BTC. When you have every reason to sell bitcoin, you have to continue HOLDing. This is where most people fail.

The anxiety of losing money kicks in. The fear of being wrong becomes a cloud over your head and you start to wonder if you’re wasting your time and ruining your future by HOLDing bitcoin.

It really isn’t for the weak, so I understand why so many people could not fathom holding onto an asset this volatile, this early into its existence. It makes sense why most people were not ready to go all in on bitcoin, but those who did were highly rewarded for their efforts.

This American HODL thread sums up HODLing bitcoin perfectly.

Here’s a story for $106,600 per Bitcoin.
6 years ago in 2018 I stacked cash all year knowing I would rebuy bitcoin at the “bottom”.
We spent 3 months or so consolidating around $6,600.
I got impatient and was like fuck it this is my moment and deployed half my stack.…
— AMERICAN HODL 🇺🇸 (@americanhodl8) December 17, 2024

I remember what it was like back in 2018 when the price of bitcoin dropped by 50%. Only at the time, I was a young college student working in physical therapy. I was in a position to take on as much risk as possible because taking care of myself was my only responsibility, so that giant drop did not affect me mentally too much. But for American HODL, as well as many other Bitcoiners who had wives and children to take care of, the stakes here were raised significantly.

Many Bitcoiners want the price to drop lower, so they can accumulate cheaper BTC. But for many Bitcoiners who have already accumulated bitcoin at cheaper prices, it can be soul crushing to watch the price of bitcoin drop by 70-80% in the bear markets. Bitcoiners, after all, are in this for wealth preservation and to increase their purchasing power. So when bitcoin dramatically drops in price, many feel like it’s a punch in the gut. Losing money sucks.

However, if you can withstand the brutal bear markets, the bull markets reward those who sheltered the storm, those who put in the effort to understand this asset and why it has these intense drops and rises. Historically, the price of bitcoin rises for three years in a row, then dumps for one year.

HODLing bitcoin is not easy. It is normal and human to feel the depression of the bear market and the euphoria of the bull. So when bitcoin inevitably dumps in the future after the bull market, be prepared to HODL.

Don’t put yourself in a position where you cannot withstand a 70-80% correction.

Understand the asset you got into and realize this is normal and everything is OK. If you can do that, you will make it out of the bear market alive, and be in prime position to take advantage of the next bull market.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

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bear market

Uptober? Cryptocurrencies bounce heading into October’s first weekend

Published

3 months ago

October 4, 2024

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Cryptocurrencies attempted to shrug off geopolitical conflict-driven market slump ahead of October’s first weekend.

Major cryptocurrencies and the total digital asset market cap jumped north of 2% on Oct. 4 as ecosystem leaders like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) staged price recoveries by publishing time. Almost $36 billion flowed into Bitcoin, pushing BTC’s price above $62,300 and marking a 3% jump. Ether’s 4% appreciation raised ETH to over $2,400, and Solana (SOL) edged toward $145, per CoinGecko.

Memecoins, especially on Solana, surged with the market upswing heading into the weekend. Tokens like Gigachad (CHAD), Michi (MICHI), Popcat (POPCAT), and dogwifhat (WIF) spiked 20%-40% in the last 24 hours.

Weekly green close uncertain for crypto

Daily price upticks only slightly reversed the plunge triggered by military altercations in the Middle East. Global economies and assets shed hundreds of millions in hours as Iran launched missiles into Israel.

The resulting pullback fixed the total cryptocurrency market cap in a red candle on the weekly timeframe. Digital assets had cumulatively closed in green for three consecutive weeks during September, a month usually bearish for cryptos.

History backs green Q4

The overall digital asset market would require an 8% recovery to regain last month’s close, and expert consensus suggested a crypto market rise might be inbound. Bitcoin has enjoyed a bullish October the last three times BTC closed September with a green monthly candle. Nine out of 11 times, the asset has surged in Q3’s first month regardless of the previous month’s price action.

Indeed, Bitcoin has averaged price increases of 22%, 46%, and 5% in the final three months of every year since 2013.