A crypto strategist known for making timely Bitcoin calls says he sees a path for BTC to remain in bull territory, amid surging bearish momentum.

In a new strategy session, pseudonymous trader Cheds tells his 49,800 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin bears have had the upper hand ever since BTC broke below its crucial support level at $90,000.

According to Cheds, Bitcoin bulls must now defend BTC’s next line of support to avoid a potential repeat of the 2021 market collapse.

“I still remain in the camp that we still have the momentum overhang from losing [$90,000] support, and it’s very likely we’re going to continue down and tag $72,000. And that’s my base case…

I just think it’s most likely we’re going to tag the prior range. What we want to see in Bitcoin is we want to see it hold the SMA (simple moving average) 50… We know that’s important because that was something that played a big role in the 2021 top when the price started to lose that [SMA] 50. We don’t want to see that happen.”

In December 2021, Bitcoin went below the SMA50 and lost about 66% of its value, melting down from $48,000 to $16,000 in less than a year.

On how Bitcoin can potentially avoid witnessing a similar fate, Cheds says,

“You can do that with a nice wick… A nice wick below the Bollinger Band and a recovery, like an intraweek recovery would be nice, where we close back up above the SMA50, we tag and test and hold this prior level ($72,000), then we can continue with the trend, the more high time frame trend which is bullish…

So the best case for me would be a very quick test and recovery, like a V recovery, an overreaction move. Something like we had perhaps [in August 2024], the dip below and the recovery, so we could test the prior range without losing the MA50. That would be the best case in my view.”

A wick is a thin line that extends above or below a candlestick’s body. In the trader’s best-case scenario, a lower wick would suggest tremendous buying pressure.

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $75,795, down over 7% on the day.

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Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. recorded a negative week once again amid escalating trade tensions following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs, dubbed ‘Liberation Day’ duties.

According to data from SoSoValue, the 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs reported $172.89 million in net outflows over the past week, snapping a two-week inflow streak that drew in nearly $941 million into the funds.

Notably, these ETFs experienced outflows on four of the five days between March 31 and April 4. Monday saw $71.07 million in outflows, followed by $157.64 million on Tuesday, $99.86 million on Thursday, and $64.88 million on Friday. The only positive day was Wednesday, with $220.76 million in inflows.

The majority of outflows came from Grayscale GBTC, which lost $95.5 million over last week, followed by WisdomTree’s BTCW with $44.6 million per Faside data. Additionally, outflows came from IBIT, BITB, ARKB, and HODL funds that saw $35.5 million, $24.1 million, $22.2 million, and $4.9 million in net redemption, respectively.

However, it wasn’t entirely a bearish week across the board, as Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin Trust, Franklin Templeton’s EZBC, and Fidelity’s FBTC still saw combined inflows of $61.8 million. The remaining BTC ETFs remained flat over the five days.

The drop in investor demand wasn’t limited to Bitcoin ETFs. Ethereum ETFs recorded $49.93 million in outflows last week, marking six straight weeks of withdrawals totaling over $795 million.

These outflows come as Bitcoin posted its worst first-quarter performance since 2018, and investor sentiment weakened due to Trump’s new tariff plans, starting with a flat 10% on all imports and higher rates for certain key trading partners, raising fears of a new global trade war.

At press time, the crypto market was down nearly 10% over the past day. Bitcoin had dropped 9.3%, falling below the $76,500 mark, a level BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes previously warned must be held to avoid deeper losses.

Bitcoin’s price is reaching a pivotal moment as it coils within a tightening triangle pattern that could soon resolve in a dramatic breakout. The ongoing consolidation around $80,000 to $85,000 is part of a classic technical setup that can cause strong directional moves in the market.

Notably, this triangle pattern was shared in an analysis on social media platform X by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, where he advised traders to keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s next breakout move.

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The current pattern hints at a possible 15% swing in either direction, and with Bitcoin now hovering around $83,000, the stakes are high. 

Triangle Pattern Forms As Bitcoin Compresses Between Lower Highs, Higher Lows

Martinez’s highlight of a triangle formation examines Bitcoin’s price action since March 7, when it briefly crashed from $91,000 until it broke below $80,000. The ensuing recovery above $80,000 eventually led to the Bitcoin price creating a lower high at $87,000 before correcting again.

Since then, Bitcoin’s price action has been highlighted by the formation of lower highs, higher lows, and an increasingly tightening range, all of which are classic parts of a triangle pattern formation. 

Bitcoin is currently trading right in the heart of this tightening range. The 4-hour timeframe chart shows the upper trendline of the triangle, which caps the price at nearly $86,000, while the lower trendline provides support at around $82,000. These levels have effectively boxed in Bitcoin’s price over the past few weeks, and any clean breakout beyond these boundaries could define the cryptocurrency’s direction in the near term.

Image From X: @ali_charts

Analyst Predicts 15% Move, Warns Traders To Watch Closely

Martinez’s analysis points to a significant price shift once Bitcoin breaks out of the triangle. “#Bitcoin $BTC is consolidating within a triangle pattern, setting the stage for a potential 15% move. Watch closely for a breakout!” he wrote on X. The warning carries weight, especially for short-term traders and those managing leveraged positions.

If Bitcoin breaks above the $86,000 resistance line, it could spark a rally toward $90,000 or higher and usher in a renewed wave of bullish momentum. On the other side, a break below the $82,000 support could lead to a quick drop toward the $70,000 level, a scenario that would deal a harsh blow to bullish market sentiment and delay the hopes for predictions of new all-time highs.

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Although a downward move to $70,000 would be brutal, its possibility cannot be ruled out, with the bull score currently at a low level of 10. Most investors are positioning for a bullish outcome and a return above $100,000, but analysis of buy zones shows that Bitcoin must break past $85,470 and $92,950 convincingly before this can happen.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $83,070.

Featured image from Fortune, chart from TradingView