Bitcoin adoption
Fidelity Investments Director Shares Bitcoin’s Adoption and Valuation Models
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1 month agoon
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adminFidelity Investments’ Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, continues to provide insightful frameworks for understanding Bitcoin’s valuation and growth. In a recent update, Timmer shared his take on Bitcoin’s adoption and value trajectories, illustrated by detailed charts that reflect both historical trends and hypothetical scenarios.
Timmer’s models aim to simplify Bitcoin’s complex growth dynamics, bridging the gap between network adoption and valuation. “While the supply is known, the demand is not,” he stated, emphasizing the critical role of adoption curves and macroeconomic variables such as real rates and monetary policy.
Adoption Curves: Slowing But Consistent Growth
Despite a slowdown in Bitcoin’s network growth, as measured by the number of wallets with a non-zero balance, Timmer noted that the trend still aligns with the steep power curve shown in his updated adoption chart. While the internet adoption curve has a gentler slope, Bitcoin’s adoption trajectory remains steeper, signifying its rapid but maturing growth.
Importantly, Timmer highlighted a key limitation in the measurement of wallet growth: the understated wallet/address count due to Bitcoin ETFs, which consolidate holdings into just a few wallets. “It’s very likely that the wallet/address count is understated,” he said, pointing out that ETFs obscure the broader distribution of Bitcoin adoption.
Monetary Policy Meets Adoption Dynamics
Building on his previous models, Timmer added a new layer to his valuation framework by incorporating money supply growth alongside real interest rates. The updated charts compare two hypothetical paths for Bitcoin’s valuation: one driven by adoption curves and real rates, and another that includes monetary inflation as a factor.
“Again, these are not predictions,” Timmer clarified, “but merely attempts at visualizing the use case on the basis of adoption, real rates, and monetary inflation.” This layered approach underscores how external macroeconomic forces, like monetary policy, could influence Bitcoin’s adoption and valuation.
Why This Matters
Timmer’s updated models reinforce Bitcoin’s position as a maturing financial asset. By combining historical S-curves, Metcalfe’s Law, and macroeconomic factors, he offers a comprehensive view of Bitcoin’s unique blend of network utility and monetary features. His work highlights the importance of adoption in driving Bitcoin’s value, while also demonstrating how real-world monetary conditions could shape its future.
For Bitcoin proponents and skeptics alike, Timmer’s insights serve as a valuable framework for understanding the asset’s dual nature as both a network and a form of money. The inclusion of monetary inflation in his models further underscores Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against fiat currency debasement.
The Road Ahead
As Bitcoin continues to evolve, Timmer’s models provide a critical lens for tracking its development. Whether it’s the flattening of the adoption curve or the interplay between monetary policy and valuation, his analysis underscores the asset’s growing complexity—and its enduring relevance in the financial world.
For investors, analysts, and enthusiasts, these insights are a reminder of Bitcoin’s transformative potential, even as its growth curve matures.
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Why Tim Draper Sees BTC as the ‘Next Netflix’?
Published
3 days agoon
January 7, 2025By
adminBitcoin’s exponential growth in 2024 brought all the attention to this digital asset. Interestingly, BTC’s achievement led Tim Draper to compare it to the popular streaming site Netflix, a pioneer in the multi-media industry. He presented a metaphorical connection between the two, depicting why Bitcoin is the next Netflix. Let’s explore Draper’s reasoning behind the comparison between the two and what it means for the potential of the crypto industry.
The Netflix Disruption
Netflix has become the mainstream media platform, beating its competitors by a large margin and attaining a $380 billion valuation. Interestingly, the same company was on the brink of bankruptcy in 2010 and was just a CD rental business before. However, it rose and developed from a movie retail business to an online blockbuster media and entertainment platform. Some even call it a real-life example of technological disruption or Netflix disruption, as it changed how people consume media.
Somewhere, there is a big similarity between the rental industry and the TradeFi industry, which is also getting left behind with digital assets, especially Bitcoin, the new mode of payments based on decentralization. The way Netflix left behind its competitors, which failed to rise with new technology and trends, BTC is likely to do the same with third-party controlled, slow, and expensive traditional transactions.
Its growth, where one Bitcoin is priced at $101.5k per coin with a market cap of nearly $2 T, reveals its high adoption rate. This is especially true as the soon-to-be 47th US president, Donald Trump, promised to make the US the crypto capital involving BTC. Based on this, the famous venture capitalist Tim Draper presented a Bitcoin vs. Netflix analysis, drawing a parallelism between Netflix and Bitcoin’s growth.
Tim Draper Bitcoin Prediction on Why BTC Could Be the ‘Next Netflix’
Tim Draper presents a very interesting key point, hinting at Bitcoin’s dominance among traditional financial systems like Netflix in the media. With the growing adoption of this digital asset and tech giants like Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, Robert Kiyosaki, and many others seeing Bitcoin as the future, much more dominance could be seen.
“Next Netflix vs. blockbuster moments to come is the Bitcoin vs Banks,” outlines Draper, boldly asserting that Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrors Netflix’s disruption.
Although Tim Draper’s Bitcoin Vs. Netflix post did not clearly explain, but his few words were enough to conclude the parallelism between these two. Both, Netflix and Bitcoin are disruptive technologies, grabbing global adoption and mainstream acceptance. More importantly, BTC has already set its foot strong in the financial market, but there is much more to come. Analysts’ Bitcoin price prediction sees it achieving $225k in 2025 alone and much more in the upcoming years.
Michael Saylor and many other industry leaders believe that Bitcoin is the US debt’s solution and that this digital asset would disrupt traditional banking institutions. This belief could become more prominent with Donald Trump’s presidency.
Eventually, all this would make Bitcoin the pioneer of the financial industry. More importantly, as Tim Draper sees, BTC is the next Netflix for the TradeFi and banking sectors. However, this is not new Bitcoin news. Draper’s months-old Bitcoin price prediction that this asset per token will hit $3M evaluations describes his ideology, as he believes BTC is the currency of the future.
Conclusion
Tim Draper provided more than just a catchy analogy by calling Bitcoin the next Netflix of the financial sector. Netflix shaped the future of the media and entertainment industry, and BTC would shape the future of the financial industry with its exponential growth, global adoption, and overcoming the TradeFI, which is slow, complicated, and controlled by institutions and government. Draper’s analysis of Bitcoin Vs. Netflix depicts the future of financial freedom and a tech-driven financial system, where one token could grab a price of $3M, far away from any asset’s value.
Pooja Khardia
With a deep-seated passion for reading and five years of experience in content writing, Pooja is now focused on crafting trending content about cryptocurrency market.
As a dedicated crypto journalist, Pooja is constantly seeking out trending topics and informative statistics to create compelling pieces for crypto enthusiasts. Staying abreast of the latest trends and advancements in the field is an integral part of her daily routine, fueling a commitment to delivering timely and insightful coverage
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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MARA CEO Advocates “Invest And Forget” Approach To Bitcoin, Citing Strong Historical Performance
Published
6 days agoon
January 4, 2025By
adminIn a recent interview with FOX Business, Fred Thiel, CEO of Bitcoin (BTC) mining firm MARA Holdings, advocated an “invest and forget” strategy for retail investors looking to gain exposure to the world’s leading digital currency.
Thiel Cites Positive Historical Performance Of Bitcoin
BTC continues to trade within the mid-$90,000 range after a recent pullback from its all-time high (ATH) of $108,135. While crypto analysts keep a close eye on the flagship cryptocurrency’s price movements, major BTC holders appear less concerned about short-term fluctuations.
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Citing Bitcoin’s historical performance, Thiel advised retail investors to adopt a long-term approach. He noted that Bitcoin has closed the year at a lower price only three times in its 14-year history, including during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thiel stated:
My recommendation, to my kids, for example, is they put just a little bit away every month in Bitcoin and forget about it. Over two, three, four years, it grows, and that’s what people do.
Thiel also emphasized BTC’s consistent growth, highlighting that it has appreciated annually by an average of 29% to 50%. However, BTC remains a high-risk asset, and risk-averse investors may shy away until the asset class achieves broader acceptance or gains official recognition from a major global economy.
For instance, the establishment of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve could solidify the cryptocurrency’s legitimacy as an asset and potentially spark a domino effect, encouraging other nations to follow suit. Thiel described such a reserve as a key catalyst for driving Bitcoin’s price to new highs in 2025.
Additionally, Thiel pointed to high institutional involvement through Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and favorable digital asset regulations under the Trump administration as other factors that could support BTC’s growth this year.
Although Thiel’s advice was aimed at retail investors, recent data suggests that many are already planning to increase their Bitcoin holdings. According to a poll conducted by MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, over 75% of 65,164 respondents intend to end 2025 with more BTC than they started with.
The poll reflects growing enthusiasm among retail investors, buoyed by bullish developments in 2024 such as ETF approvals, the Bitcoin halving, and Trump’s election victory in November.
More Companies Adding BTC To Balance Sheet
Bitcoin adoption among corporations continues to grow. While MARA Holdings already holds BTC on its balance sheet, rival crypto mining company Hut 8 recently expanded its holdings to more than 10,000 BTC.
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Other firms, such as Japan-based Metaplanet and Canada’s Rumble, joined the Bitcoin movement in 2024. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over 1 million BTC in under a year since their launch.
However, skepticism remains. Japan’s Prime Minister recently expressed caution about the idea of establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, reflecting lingering doubts in some quarters. At press time, BTC trades at $97,229, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com
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Metaplanet Stock Soars 9% Amid Rising Revenue With This Latest Bitcoin Strategy
Published
3 months agoon
October 16, 2024By
adminMetaplanet Inc. stock price noted a surge of nearly 9% as the investors appear to have lauded the company’s recent move in the Bitcoin market. Notably, the Japanese publicly listed firm reported increased revenue from its Bitcoin put options strategy, which aims to boost long-term holdings. By rolling up its Bitcoin put options to a higher strike price, the firm has positioned itself to benefit from future price movements while strengthening its financial outlook.
Metaplanet Stock Soars As Bitcoin Strategy Boosts Yield
The recent surge in Metaplanet stock price came after its announced to roll up its Bitcoin put options. The investors appear to have celebrated the development. Notably, the firm has replaced its prior put options with a strike price of $62,000 per BTC, rolling them up to $66,000 with a December 2024 maturity date.
This transaction carried out in collaboration with QCP Capital, allowed the Japan-based firm to generate an additional net premium of 5.9095 BTC, valued at around JPY 57.9 million. Notably, the firm said that the new strategy also increases its nominal yield on these options by 2.65%, bringing the total nominal yield to 13.4%.
Meanwhile, CEO Simon Gerovich said that this adjustment aligns with the firm’s ongoing strategy to capitalize on Bitcoin’s volatility while increasing the firm’s long-term BTC exposure. The total premium generated from these transactions amounts to JPY 272.5 million, which will be recorded as revenue for the fiscal year ending December 2024.
In addition, this move underscores the company’s commitment to increasing its BTC holdings, which now stand at 861.387 BTC, with an average purchase price of 9,313,428 yen per Bitcoin. By adopting this strategy, the firm is not only enhancing its revenue but also positioning itself to further benefit from future BTC price increases.
Bitcoin Price Volatility Imposes Risk
Bitcoin price has faced highly volatile trading lately amid several macroeconomic developments and other market trends. It’s worth noting that the volatility in the flagship crypto has also caused a topsy-turvy trading scenario in the top altcoins.
Having said that, the new put options strategy has delivered impressive gains to Metaplanet. However, it also carries some risks. For instance, if the Bitcoin price falls below the new strike price of $66,000 by the December 2024 maturity, the firm will be required to purchase Bitcoin at this price. This could result in a financial exposure of around $892,000 beyond its current margin collateral.
However, despite this potential risk, the company appears to remain confident in its approach. The firm’s strategy is focused on gradually increasing its Bitcoin holdings and driving long-term profitability.
This also comes as the institutional interest soared on BTC. For instance, MicroStrategy has recently revealed its plan to become the largest Bitcoin bank, which has sparked optimism in the market, sending MSTR stock price higher. Besides, Asia’s MicroStrategy, Metaplanet is also boosting its BTC holdings, indicating a growing confidence in the crypto.
During writing, BTC price soared over 3% and exchanged hands at $67,719, while its trading volume rose 32% to $50.89 billion. The crypto has touched a high of $67,881.68 and a low of $67,881.68 in the last 24 hours, reflecting the volatile scenario in the market.
However, a recent price prediction has sparked optimism among investors, despite the volatile market condition. The latest Bitcoin price prediction indicates BTC to hit $95,685 in November, and $91,705 in December.
Rupam Roy
Rupam is a seasoned professional with three years of experience in the financial market, where he has developed a reputation as a meticulous research analyst and insightful journalist. He thrives on exploring the dynamic nuances of the financial landscape. Currently serving as a sub-editor at Coingape, Rupam’s expertise extends beyond conventional boundaries. His role involves breaking stories, analyzing AI-related developments, providing real-time updates on the crypto market, and presenting insightful economic news.
Rupam’s career is characterized by a deep passion for unraveling the complexities of finance and delivering impactful stories that resonate with a diverse audience.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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