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Fidelity Investments Director Shares Bitcoin’s Adoption and Valuation Models

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Fidelity Investments’ Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, continues to provide insightful frameworks for understanding Bitcoin’s valuation and growth. In a recent update, Timmer shared his take on Bitcoin’s adoption and value trajectories, illustrated by detailed charts that reflect both historical trends and hypothetical scenarios.

Timmer’s models aim to simplify Bitcoin’s complex growth dynamics, bridging the gap between network adoption and valuation. “While the supply is known, the demand is not,” he stated, emphasizing the critical role of adoption curves and macroeconomic variables such as real rates and monetary policy.

Adoption Curves: Slowing But Consistent Growth

Despite a slowdown in Bitcoin’s network growth, as measured by the number of wallets with a non-zero balance, Timmer noted that the trend still aligns with the steep power curve shown in his updated adoption chart. While the internet adoption curve has a gentler slope, Bitcoin’s adoption trajectory remains steeper, signifying its rapid but maturing growth.

Importantly, Timmer highlighted a key limitation in the measurement of wallet growth: the understated wallet/address count due to Bitcoin ETFs, which consolidate holdings into just a few wallets. “It’s very likely that the wallet/address count is understated,” he said, pointing out that ETFs obscure the broader distribution of Bitcoin adoption.

Monetary Policy Meets Adoption Dynamics

Building on his previous models, Timmer added a new layer to his valuation framework by incorporating money supply growth alongside real interest rates. The updated charts compare two hypothetical paths for Bitcoin’s valuation: one driven by adoption curves and real rates, and another that includes monetary inflation as a factor.

“Again, these are not predictions,” Timmer clarified, “but merely attempts at visualizing the use case on the basis of adoption, real rates, and monetary inflation.” This layered approach underscores how external macroeconomic forces, like monetary policy, could influence Bitcoin’s adoption and valuation.

Why This Matters

Timmer’s updated models reinforce Bitcoin’s position as a maturing financial asset. By combining historical S-curves, Metcalfe’s Law, and macroeconomic factors, he offers a comprehensive view of Bitcoin’s unique blend of network utility and monetary features. His work highlights the importance of adoption in driving Bitcoin’s value, while also demonstrating how real-world monetary conditions could shape its future.

For Bitcoin proponents and skeptics alike, Timmer’s insights serve as a valuable framework for understanding the asset’s dual nature as both a network and a form of money. The inclusion of monetary inflation in his models further underscores Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against fiat currency debasement.

The Road Ahead

As Bitcoin continues to evolve, Timmer’s models provide a critical lens for tracking its development. Whether it’s the flattening of the adoption curve or the interplay between monetary policy and valuation, his analysis underscores the asset’s growing complexity—and its enduring relevance in the financial world.

For investors, analysts, and enthusiasts, these insights are a reminder of Bitcoin’s transformative potential, even as its growth curve matures.



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Metaplanet Stock Soars 9% Amid Rising Revenue With This Latest Bitcoin Strategy

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Metaplanet Inc. stock price noted a surge of nearly 9% as the investors appear to have lauded the company’s recent move in the Bitcoin market. Notably, the Japanese publicly listed firm reported increased revenue from its Bitcoin put options strategy, which aims to boost long-term holdings. By rolling up its Bitcoin put options to a higher strike price, the firm has positioned itself to benefit from future price movements while strengthening its financial outlook.

Metaplanet Stock Soars As Bitcoin Strategy Boosts Yield

The recent surge in Metaplanet stock price came after its announced to roll up its Bitcoin put options. The investors appear to have celebrated the development. Notably, the firm has replaced its prior put options with a strike price of $62,000 per BTC, rolling them up to $66,000 with a December 2024 maturity date.

This transaction carried out in collaboration with QCP Capital, allowed the Japan-based firm to generate an additional net premium of 5.9095 BTC, valued at around JPY 57.9 million. Notably, the firm said that the new strategy also increases its nominal yield on these options by 2.65%, bringing the total nominal yield to 13.4%.

Meanwhile, CEO Simon Gerovich said that this adjustment aligns with the firm’s ongoing strategy to capitalize on Bitcoin’s volatility while increasing the firm’s long-term BTC exposure. The total premium generated from these transactions amounts to JPY 272.5 million, which will be recorded as revenue for the fiscal year ending December 2024.

Metaplanet CEO Simon GerovichMetaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich
Source: Simon Gerovich, X

In addition, this move underscores the company’s commitment to increasing its BTC holdings, which now stand at 861.387 BTC, with an average purchase price of 9,313,428 yen per Bitcoin. By adopting this strategy, the firm is not only enhancing its revenue but also positioning itself to further benefit from future BTC price increases.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Imposes Risk

Bitcoin price has faced highly volatile trading lately amid several macroeconomic developments and other market trends. It’s worth noting that the volatility in the flagship crypto has also caused a topsy-turvy trading scenario in the top altcoins.

Having said that, the new put options strategy has delivered impressive gains to Metaplanet. However, it also carries some risks. For instance, if the Bitcoin price falls below the new strike price of $66,000 by the December 2024 maturity, the firm will be required to purchase Bitcoin at this price. This could result in a financial exposure of around  $892,000 beyond its current margin collateral.

However, despite this potential risk, the company appears to remain confident in its approach. The firm’s strategy is focused on gradually increasing its Bitcoin holdings and driving long-term profitability.

This also comes as the institutional interest soared on BTC. For instance, MicroStrategy has recently revealed its plan to become the largest Bitcoin bank, which has sparked optimism in the market, sending MSTR stock price higher. Besides, Asia’s MicroStrategy, Metaplanet is also boosting its BTC holdings, indicating a growing confidence in the crypto.

During writing, BTC price soared over 3% and exchanged hands at $67,719, while its trading volume rose 32% to $50.89 billion. The crypto has touched a high of $67,881.68 and a low of $67,881.68 in the last 24 hours, reflecting the volatile scenario in the market.

However, a recent price prediction has sparked optimism among investors, despite the volatile market condition. The latest Bitcoin price prediction indicates BTC to hit $95,685 in November, and $91,705 in December.

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Rupam Roy

Rupam is a seasoned professional with three years of experience in the financial market, where he has developed a reputation as a meticulous research analyst and insightful journalist. He thrives on exploring the dynamic nuances of the financial landscape. Currently serving as a sub-editor at Coingape, Rupam’s expertise extends beyond conventional boundaries. His role involves breaking stories, analyzing AI-related developments, providing real-time updates on the crypto market, and presenting insightful economic news.
Rupam’s career is characterized by a deep passion for unraveling the complexities of finance and delivering impactful stories that resonate with a diverse audience.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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CORVA: Want Greater Adoption Of Bitcoin? Use It To Fix Problems.

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Follow Frank on X.

Bitcoin will not become more widely adopted as a result of intellectual curiosity or because it’s theoretically the best form of money ever. Instead, people will begin to use it because it solves pressing problems in their lives.

So, if you’re looking to foster greater Bitcoin adoption, show someone how they can use Bitcoin to solve an issue their facing.

Hermann Vivier, co-founder of Bitcoin Ekasi, a Bitcoin circular economy in South Africa was given this advice from Mike Peterson, Director of Bitcoin Beach, the world’s first Bitcoin circular economy, and it continues to inform his work.

The broader problem that Bitcoin solves for underserved South Africans is that it provides them with a means to save in an environment in which many don’t trust banks or have much access to other investments. Part of the reason they don’t trust banks is because they’re often charged hidden fees from both the banks themselves as well as local merchants.

Vivier told Bitcoin Magazine that many in the community often purchase goods via layaway programs (buy now, pay later) and are often duped by stipulations in the fine print of the deals.

“You can go in and buy something today, not pay for it at all, take it home and then the merchant starts charging you after the second or the third month,” explained Vivier.

“These credit schemes are quite exploitative. The fees would go up over time as interest accumulates and the residents give the company the right to just draw the money from their bank accounts, but the buyers don’t understand what they’re signing away,” he added.

“After a year, they see there’s still money going out of their account, but in their mind, they’ve already finished paying for this thing, yet they’re still paying for it and they don’t know why.”

Vivier went on to explain that the simple fact that money cannot be automatically withdrawn from a Bitcoin wallet like it can from a bank account provides Bitcoin Ekasi community members with more of a sense of control over their funds.

Rich Swisher, founder of Motiv, an NGO that develops Bitcoin circular economies and helps members of unbanked communities in Perú become more financially independent, also uses Bitcoin to help the financially disadvantaged have more control over their money.

Swisher told Bitcoin Magazine that residents of the communities with whom Motiv works can’t save cash in their homes because of the high likelihood that they’ll be robbed. And many don’t use banks because they charge fees that these residents can’t afford to pay (That’s if banking services are available at all.) Bitcoin provides them with a way to bank themselves, which serves as a financial base for them to start their own enterprises.

“With Bitcoin, they can start a small business that they can run out of their home and run off of their phone,” Swisher told Bitcoin Magazine.

“Over time they see that they can be financially independent. Then, they start seeing that not only do I have a good path going right now, but if it was all taken away from me tomorrow, I have the know-how to redo it,” he added.

“None of this happens without Bitcoin.”

So, does that mean you have to run out and start a full-on Bitcoin circular economy in an underserved community if you want to see more Bitcoin adoption? Absolutely not.

But how hard would it be to show your friend who runs a non-profit how to accept bitcoin for international donations so to save on wire transfer fees or to show a family member how to send an international remittance using Bitcoin instead of Western Union, which charges high fees for its service? Not that hard.

If you want to see more people using Bitcoin, quit the habit of explaining to those around you how great it is, and start showing them what problems it solves.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.



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