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Historical Trend Hints Bitcoin Price Still 25% Away From November Peak

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The cryptocurrency market maintained its bullish momentum during Monday’s U.S. market session, with Bitcoin price continuing to hit new highs. This recovery trend rally, backed by whale accumulation and increasing trading volume, accentuates the bull’s conviction for the prolonged uptrend. Has BTC reached its November peak, or is there room for further growth?

With crypto market today, the BTC price had traded at $81,586, with an intraday gain of 1.444%. According to Coingecko, the asset’s market cap surged to $1.62 Trillion, while the 24-hour trading volume wavers at $78.8 Billion.

Bitcoin Price Poised for Parabolic Growth with Critical Weekly Close

Historically, November has been a strong month for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, often delivering significant gains. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin recorded a 450% surge in November 2013, followed by 53% in 2017 and 43% in 2020, solidifying its reputation as a bullish period.

On average, Bitcoin price prediction has recorded a 44% growth in November over the past decade. As of November 2024, the current price trajectory delivered a 17.78% surge but still trailed 25% behind average growth potential.

If history repeats, the BTC price could extend its recovery past the $1,00,000 psychological level.

BTCBTC
Bitcoin Monthly returns| Coinglass

BTC Exchange Outflows Surge as Investors Embrace HODLing

In a recent tweet, renowned analyst Ali Martinez highlights a substantial outflow of Bitcoins from crypto exchanges amid a recent rally. According to Glassnode data, 40,000 BTC ( worth approximately $3.28 billion) have been withdrawn from exchanges within the past week.

This significant outflow reflects a declining exchange balance, which could indicate increased long-term holding sentiment among investors. The BTC price rally backed aggressive accumulation trend bolstered the potential for a higher rally.

BTC Price Analysis Hints Major Breakout From Flag Pattern

Over the past seven months, the Bitcoin price witnessed a stubborn consolidation with the formation of a flag pattern. This sideways trend, resonating between two trendlines, typically benefits the market bulls to recuperate the bullish momentum.

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election acted as a necessary catalyst for the coin price to give a massive breakout flag resistance. Since last, the coin price showed a significant rally from $67,813 to $82,350, registering a 21.4% growth.

If the pattern holds true, the BTC price could reach $1,02,000 high.

Bitcoin PriceBitcoin Price
BTC/USD -1d Chart

On the contrary, a Bitcoin price could soon witness an occasional pullback to replenish its buying pressure, potentially selling support at key daily EMAs 20 and 50.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

As of November 2024, Bitcoin has surged by 17.78%. However, it still trails 25% behind its historical average growth potential

The flag pattern formation, observed over the past seven months, typically signals a continuation of the bullish trend

The recent rally is backed by whale accumulation, increasing trading volumes, and significant exchange outflows

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Can Bitcoin Reach $100K After the Upcoming US Fed Decision?

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Bitcoin’s price briefly crossed the $85,000 mark on Sunday, March 16, marking an 11% rebound from last week’s bottom of $76,000. Bullish traders have been deploying significant leverage positions on BTC ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve rate decision slated for March 19.

Bitcoin (BTC) Attempts $85,000 Recovery as Sellers Continue to Hold

After reaching an all-time high of $109,071 in January, Trump’s inauguration ushered in a pullback phase witch Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing a sharp decline of nearly 30%, hitting a low of $76,000 last week.

This downturn has been attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions following President Trump’s intervention in early March and recent US trade tariff announcements.

Bitcoin price action (BTCUSDT)Bitcoin price action (BTCUSDT)
Bitcoin price action (BTCUSDT)

However, positive indicators from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports published last week have spurred a recovery. On March 16, BTC price briefly crossed the $85,000 mark, reflecting an 11.1% gain from the previous week’s low of $76,000 recorded on Tuesday, March 12.

This suggests that investor sentiment has improved significantly since the CPI data release on Wednesday, March 13, with many opting to hold their positions in anticipation of upcoming macroeconomic announcements.

What Fed Rate Outcomes Could Drive BTC to $100K?

The upcoming Federal Reserve decision on interest rates is a critical event for Bitcoin investors.

Historically, lower interest rates have led to increased liquidity in financial markets, often benefiting risk assets ranging from stocks to cryptocurrencies.

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision expected by Wednesday, March 19.

If the Fed signals a rate pause or hints at imminent cuts, it could boost investor confidence, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price toward the $100,000 mark.

US Fed Rate Decision, March 2025 | Source: CMEGROUP/FedWatch ToolUS Fed Rate Decision, March 2025 | Source: CMEGROUP/FedWatch Tool
US Fed Rate Decision, March 2025 | Source: CMEGROUP/FedWatch Tool

Conversely, a hawkish stance with rate hikes could tighten liquidity, posing challenges for Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

However, based on recent data from CME Group, a majority of market watchers have priced in a 99% chance of a rate pause.

If this scenario plays out as expected, BTC price could see some upside in the aftermath of the official rate announcement, as often historically seen after less hawkish Fed decisions.

Bulls Established $1.9 Billion Dominance in Bitcoin Derivative Market

Having digested inflation-easing signals in the US CPI and PPI reports, with market watchers nearly ruling out the chances of a rate cut as previously feared, the majority of Bitcoin traders have priced in the rate pause decision and positioned trades accordingly.

Bitcoin Liquidation Map (BTCUSDT) | March 16Bitcoin Liquidation Map (BTCUSDT) | March 16
Bitcoin Liquidation Map (BTCUSDT) | March 16

In the derivatives market, bullish sentiment is evident. Over the last 7 days, bull traders have mounted long leverage positions amounting to $4.9 billion, while short leverage positions stand at $3.8 billion, giving bulls a net dominance of $1.1 billion.

BTC Outlook for the Week Ahead

This substantial long positioning indicates strong market confidence in Bitcoin’s future appreciation. However, it’s essential to monitor these leveraged positions closely, as sudden market shifts could lead to liquidations, amplifying price movements.

Given the 11% BTC price rebound over the past week, the anticipated Fed rate pause may have already been priced in, and many traders could capitalize on the announcement to execute a sell-the-news strategy.

In this scenario, BTC could see another downturn below the $80,000 mark, especially with long traders currently holding over-leveraged positions.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Recovery in Play, but $100K Remains a Tough Target

Bitcoin price forecast chart below is showing signs of more upside potential after rebounding 11% from the recent $76,000 low, to reach $83,175 at press time. The bullish case for BTC price action new week is supported by a number of technical indicators, but the path to $100,000 remains uncertain as key resistance levels and market sentiment present challenges.

First, the Elliott Wave count suggests Bitcoin has completed a corrective leg down, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $76,555.

Bitcoin Price ForecastBitcoin Price Forecast
Bitcoin Price Forecast

A bounce from this level indicates potential for a relief rally, with immediate targets at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of $89,085, followed by $92,956 (0.5 retracement) and a stronger resistance near $96,827 at the 0.618 level.

Additionally, the Parabolic SAR indicator, currently at $97,068, further reinforces this zone as a pivotal area where bullish momentum could face major resistance.

However, bearish risks remain prominent. The volume profile shows declining buy-side momentum, suggesting a lack of strong conviction among bulls.

More so, the BBP (Bear/Bull Power) indicator remains deeply negative at -10,559, signaling that downward pressure is still in play. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $89,000 convincingly, it could trigger another sell-off toward the $76,000 support level, potentially exposing the market to further downside.

For the week ahead, Bitcoin’s price action hinges on reclaiming $89,000. A decisive close above this level could fuel a rally toward $97,000, but failure to break above could see BTC revisiting $80,000 or lower.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

If the Fed signals a rate pause or future cuts, Bitcoin could rally. However, strong resistance levels and profit-taking may slow momentum.

BTC must reclaim $89,000 to sustain an uptrend. Resistance sits at $92,956 and $96,827, while support remains at $80,000 and $76,000.

Bulls hold a $1.1 billion net dominance in derivatives, but over-leverage increases liquidation risks, potentially leading to sharp price swings.

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ibrahim

Crypto analyst covering derivatives markets, macro trends, technical analysis, and DeFi. His works feature in-depth market insights, price forecasts, and institutional-grade research on digital assets.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Why is Bitcoin Price Going Up? Trump’s Crypto Executive Order Could Spark $150K Rally in March

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Bitcoin price has rebounded 10% in the last 48 hours, reclaiming territory above $85,000 on Sunday, March 2, after plunging to a 120-day low of around $78,200 on Friday. Key technical indicators suggest BTC could be setting up for a positive start to March 2025.

Why is Bitcoin Price Going Up Today?

Bitcoin surged 10% over the weekend, largely driven by President Trump’s executive order to advance a Crypto Strategic Reserve and investors capitalizing on last week’s overheated market liquidations. The move coincided with the imminent imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 1, fueling further demand as traders anticipated BTC’s role as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties.

Bitcoin (BTC) Makes $90K rebound as Bulls Buy-in at the Bottom

After shedding over 25% of its value in February, Bitcoin found relief over the weekend as strategic buyers entered the market. The price downturn had reached its lowest point on February 28, plunging to a 120-day low of $78,200.

Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico sparked a global retraction of capital from risk assets, leading to double-digit declines in major indices such as the S&P 500, Japan’s Nikkei, and Germany’s DAX in the week leading up to the March 1 tariff implementation date.

Notably, Bitcoin price bottomed out Feb 28, when prices plunged to a 120-day lows around $78,200. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action, March 2, 2025Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action, March 2, 2025
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action, March 2, 2025

Market data observed over the weekend shows that strategic investors swooped at the bottom to buy into key assets at the cusp of the March 1 tariff date. Hence, BTC price received a major boost, climbing from 120-day lows recorded on Friday, to close trading for Saturday just above $85,000. 

Trump Gives Green Light for Crypto Strategic Reserve

After reclaiming the $86,000 level in early European trading, Bitcoin saw another surge as U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order establishing a Crypto Strategic Reserve.

Trump Gives Green Light for Crypto Strategic Reserve including BTC, SOL, XRP, ADATrump Gives Green Light for Crypto Strategic Reserve including BTC, SOL, XRP, ADA
Trump Gives Green Light for Crypto Strategic Reserve including BTC, SOL, XRP, ADA

According to an official announcement on the Trump-owned Truth Social platform, the reserve will initially include Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA), reflecting a diversified approach to U.S. digital asset holdings. This decision aligns with Trump’s broader pro-crypto stance and signals a formal recognition of digital assets within the U.S. financial system.

Within an hour of Trump’s announcement, Bitcoin surged an additional 3%, briefly surpassing $91,000 at press time on Sunday March 2.

How Will Trump’s Crypto Strategic Reserve Impact BTC Price?

Taking a cue from nations such as El Salvador and Bhutan, which have incorporated Bitcoin into their national balance sheets, many analysts expected BTC to be the exclusive asset in the U.S. reserve.

However, Trump’s decision to include SOL, XRP, and ADA mitigates concentration risk while allowing the U.S. to benefit from the unique value propositions of each project.

Long-Term Gains to Mitigate Short-Term Dip in BTC Market Dominance 

By spreading capital across four crypto assets, BTC is expected to see less upside than if it were the sole asset. While this may temporarily reduce Bitcoin’s market dominance, the long-term gains from a stronger, more resilient sector could drive BTC past $150,000 in the mid-to-long term

In the short term, Bitcoin could see a brief pullback in relative market share as capital flows into newly included assets. However, the broader legitimacy conferred by a U.S.-backed reserve is likely to enhance institutional confidence, solidifying Bitcoin’s long-term growth prospects.

BTC Price Forecast: $100K Breakout ahead as SHORT traders fold on Trump’s announcement

After last-weeks bloodbath, Bitcoin price forecast charts are now leaning bullish, with technical indicators pointing toward a potential breakout past $100,000 as short traders face increasing pressure. The 12-hour chart reveals a strong 16.84% rebound in just over two days, with BTC climbing from lows of $78,200 to reclaim $90,558.

This recovery aligns with a surge in trading volume, indicating renewed investor confidence. The MACD indicator has crossed bullishly, with the blue MACD line breaking above the signal line, signaling a shift in momentum.

BTC Price ForecastBTC Price Forecast
BTC Price Forecast

As Bitcoin price approaches key suppport levels near $100,000 , Short traders, who capitalized on February’s steep decline, are unlikely to put up strong resistance, considering the current active Bitcoin price catalyst has the backing of the U.S. government.

Although unlikely, a bearish scenario could emerge if BTC fails to close above $88,000, triggering a new wave of liquidations. However, the momentum favors buyers, and with shorts unwinding, BTC could quickly surge past $95,000 before testing the critical $100,000 psychological level.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Bitcoin surged 10% after Trump’s Crypto Strategic Reserve announcement boosted demand.

Trump’s executive order established a U.S. digital asset reserve, initially holding BTC, SOL, XRP, and ADA to support the crypto sector.

If bullish momentum continues and short sellers fold, BTC could surpass $100,000, driven by institutional interest and government backing.

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ibrahim

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Key Levels to Watch as BTC Crashes Below $100K Today

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Bitcoin (BTC) price traded as low as $91,231 on Binance on Monday Morning, as crypto markets buckle under pressure from escalating trade tariff war involving the United States.

Bitcoin (BTC) Plummets to $91K as Crypto Market Liquidations Hit $1.8 Billion

Bitcoin (BTC) plunged below the $91,200 mark on February 3, its lowest level in 20 days. This decline follows mounting economic concerns sparked by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, which have triggered widespread financial market turbulence.

As fears of rising consumer prices escalate, social media reports suggest that American consumers are preparing for inflation by stockpiling essential goods. This has led to a shift in retail investor sentiment, with many liquidating riskier assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies in favor of more stable stores of value.

Crypto Market Liquidations, Feb 3, 2025 | Source: Coinglass.comCrypto Market Liquidations, Feb 3, 2025 | Source: Coinglass.com
Crypto Market Liquidations, Feb 3, 2025 | Source: Coinglass.com

As depicted above, Crypto market liquidations have exceeded $1.8 billion as BTC price plunged 7% in the last 24 hours, signaling unusually heavy capitulation from large investors.

This suggests that Bitcoin institutional investors are also responding to inflation risks, anticipating that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates sooner than expected.

This has led many to shift capital toward government bonds before interest rate hikes push prices higher. Combined, these factors have exacerbated selling pressure in the crypto market, driving Bitcoin’s price down by 11% over the past three days.

Key Bitcoin (BTC) Price Levels to Watch 

Amid the ongoing crypto market downturn, some crucial BTC trading signals indicate key levels that could be pivotal to Bitcoin price action  as the week progresses.

Coinglass Liquidation Map Shows BTC’s Strongest Support Level Lies at $90,360

Bitcoin started the week under pressure due to the bearish sentiment surrounding the escalating trade war. Many U.S.-based traders likely set sell orders over the weekend, anticipating further downward movement as markets opened on Monday. This could result in heightened volatility in the early trading hours.

Coinglass’ liquidation map provides insight into the critical price levels where traders have placed leveraged positions. The chart displays Bitcoin’s aggregated leverage positions over the last 30 days, revealing key areas where liquidation events are likely.

Bitcoin (BTC) Liquidation Map | Source: CoinglassBitcoin (BTC) Liquidation Map | Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin (BTC) Liquidation Map | Source: Coinglass

The data suggests that bearish sentiment dominates, with $11.9 billion in short positions far exceeding the $3.04 billion in long positions. This confirms expectations of further downside risk.

However, bullish traders have concentrated $2.12 billion in leverage at the $90,358 level, accounting for 70% of total long leverage positions. This indicates strong potential support around $90,500, as traders seek to defend their positions from liquidation losses.

Other key support zones include $93,000 and $94,330, where long positions total $1 billion and $330 million, respectively. If Bitcoin’s price approaches these levels, we could see increased buying activity aimed at stabilizing the market.

Nevertheless, a prolonged bearish trend could persist unless global economic conditions improve or influential market participants intervene to stabilize sentiment.

The Double-Bottom Pattern Signals a Potential Breakout Toward $108,000

While the prevailing market sentiment remains bearish due to macroeconomic pressures, certain technical indicators suggest the possibility of a Bitcoin price recovery. The double-bottom pattern observed in recent trading activity hints at a potential breakout target of $108,000, provided market sentiment shifts positively.

Savvy investors might capitalize on the current price dip, increasing their Bitcoin holdings around the $90,300, $93,000, and $94,300 support levels. Some Bitcoin maximalists believe that prolonged trade tensions could drive sovereign entities to seek BTC as an inflation hedge. Notably, the Czech Republic and Bhutan have recently explored Bitcoin acquisitions, and U.S. states and corporations may increasingly turn to blockchain solutions to circumvent trade barriers.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC Rebound to $108K?

From a technical analysis standpoint, Bitcoin price forecast shows BTC trading near recent significant lows highlighted double-bottom pattern, which often precedes a bullish breakout.

In terms of key levels to watch, BTC must maintains support above $90,500 to keep alive rebound hopes of reclaiming the $96,150 territory. If the trade war sparks a BTC buying frenzy among nations and institutions, the ensuing BTC price recovery could gain enough momentum to test the $102,000-$105,000 range. A sustained rally above these levels could open the door to the $108,000 breakout target.

Key Bitcoin (BTC) Price Levels to Watch:  BTC/USD | TradingViewKey Bitcoin (BTC) Price Levels to Watch:  BTC/USD | TradingView
Key Bitcoin (BTC) Price Levels to Watch:  BTC/USD | TradingView

The Bollinger Bands indicator also highlights key resistance levels that Bitcoin must overcome to reclaim bullish momentum. The upper band suggests significant resistance at $105,800, followed by a more substantial barrier near $108,000. If Bitcoin can consolidate above these levels, it may establish a new bullish trend, counteracting the recent downturn.

In Summary: 

While Bitcoin’s 11% decline in 3 consecutive losing days has rattled investors with $1.8 billion market liquidations. However, key technical indicators point to potential support around $90,500 and possible recovery scenarios. The ongoing trade war and economic uncertainty continue to influence market sentiment, but long-term investors and institutional players could take advantage of lower prices. Should positive sentiment return, Bitcoin could break out toward $108,000, reinforcing its status as a politically-neutral asset.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Bitcoin’s decline is linked to global economic uncertainty, including the U.S.-Canada trade war, rising inflation concerns, and mass market liquidations.

The strongest BTC support level lies at $90,360, with additional support at $93,000 and $94,330, where leveraged long positions are heavily concentrated.

If Bitcoin holds the $90,500 support and market sentiment improves, the double-bottom pattern suggests a potential breakout toward $108,000.

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ibrahim

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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