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How Bitcoin Traders Are Playing the US Election

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If you’re fixated on the price of Bitcoin, then you may already have your answer.

On Election Day, America’s choice between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris carries consequences for the crypto industry—from a potential shakeup at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the passage of a regulatory framework.

It could take days to determine Tuesday’s White House winner, but analysts told Decrypt that there are several tea leaves that traders could read into in the meantime, ranging from Senate races to the resiliency of Bitcoin’s price in the face of normally bearish news.

While Bernstein analysts forecast that Bitcoin could pop to $90,000 on a Trump victory earlier this week, Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives Greg Magadini told Decrypt that the Bitcoin futures “market is pretty convinced a Trump victory brings us past $80,000” by the end of the month.

Bitcoin is currently trading for about $69,150 as of this writing, up more than 3% on the day—though it’s dipped from a daily high above $70,500 on Tuesday morning.

The implied volatility of Bitcoin futures contracts, measuring how much the market expects the asset’s price to change, is quite elevated at above 80%, Magadini added. The last two times the metric pushed as high was when spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January and amid last year’s banking crisis, suggesting Bitcoin’s price could swing forcefully in either direction, he said.

Though Trump has turned himself into a vocal supporter of digital assets on the campaign trail, Grayscale’s Managing Director of Research Zach Pandl told Decrypt that Senate races are ultimately the most important barometer for the future outlook of the crypto industry.

Because the Senate has the authority to approve presidential appointees at agencies like the SEC, Harris’ camp would likely collaborate with Republicans if they’re able to gain control, Pandl said. At the same time, the Senate’s makeup could determine how the regulatory backdrop surrounding decentralized finance and the tokenization of assets develops, he said.

“As long as we see Republican control of the Senate, we think that we will have a balanced mix of financial service regulators in the United States that would put the whole industry on solid footing for the coming years,” Pandl said. “In my personal opinion, there’s actually more election risk for Ethereum and other coins beyond Bitcoin.”

The sentiment was echoed by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, who highlighted Solana’s 3.8% rise Tuesday to $165 as evidence of traders positioning around the election’s regulatory implications.

“I think Solana is the asset to keep an eye on,” he said. “Of the major assets, it’s probably the most exposed to the difference in regulatory uncertainty between a Harris and Trump regime.”

Alongside Bitcoin’s rise Tuesday, GSR Head of Research Brian Ruddick told Decrypt that some traders may be trying to allocate to the asset early based on Trump’s White House prospects.

Given that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $500 million in net outflows Monday, he said the move would typically hurt Bitcoin’s price. Meanwhile, the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox moved $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin to a new wallet late Monday, a move that has historically caused some market volatility.

“Prices are higher despite some negative news over the last day,” Ruddick said. “It seems like traders are trying to front-run the election and a potential Trump win.”

Edited by Andrew Hayward

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Cryptocurrencies to watch this week: Binance Coin, Cronos, ZetaChain

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Cryptocurrency prices rose modestly during the weekend as investors embraced a risk-on sentiment following Friday’s surge in the US stock market. 

Bitcoin (BTC) held steady above $84,000, while the market cap of all coins rose to over $2.8 trillion. 

The crypto market will have two main catalysts this week: President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. A sign of Trump easing his stand on tariffs and a more dovish Fed will be bullish for cryptocurrencies and other risky assets. 

The top cryptocurrencies to watch this week will be Binance Coin (BNB), Cronos (CRO), and ZetaChain (ZETA).

BNB

BNB price
BNB price chart | Source: crypto.news

BNB price will be in the spotlight this week as the developers activate the Pascal hard fork on March 20.  This is one of the three upgrades scheduled for the year’s first half. It is set to introduce newer features, including more Ethereum compatibility, native smart contract wallets, and more security. 

The other two upgrades will improve BNB Chain’s speed and security. This is happening as the BSC Chain becomes one of the best alternatives to Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). Ethereum has higher fees and is slow, while the Solana network is highly associated with meme coins. 

Cronos 

Cronos price
Cronos price chart | Source: crypto.news

A key Cronos vote will conclude on March 17. This crucial vote seeks to determine the creation of the Cronos Strategic Reserve. It aims to do that by undoing a 70 billion token burn that happened in 2021. 

If the vote passes, Cronos will create 70 billion tokens and use them to create a reserve that will be used to support the ecosystem. Critics argue that creating these new tokens will dilute existing investors by adding to the supply.

Voting data shows that 45.8% of users have voted in support of the proposal, while 44.4% have rejected it. 9.27% have abstained. If the vote ends like this, the proposal will be rejected as the turnout is less than the quorum. 

ZetaChain

Zetachain price
Zetachain price chart | Source: crypto.news

ZetaChain is another top cryptocurrency to watch after its price crashed to a record low of $0.2070. It has dropped by over 92% from its all-time high, bringing its market cap to $151 million. 

One reason for the ZETA price crash is that the total value locked in its ecosystem has crashed to $13 million from its all-time high of near $20 million. 

The other reason is that Zetachain is highly dilutive as it has a circulating supply of 731 million against a total supply of 2.1 billion.

The network will unlock tokens worth over $6.6 million, representing 4.29% of the float this week. Cryptocurrencies are often highly volatile when there is a major unlock. 



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Bitcoin ETF

Gold ETFs Inflow Takes Over BTC ETFs Amid Historic Rally

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Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have overtaken bitcoin ETFs in assets under management as investors shift toward the traditional safe-haven asset as BTC price tumbled more than 19% over the past three months, while the precious metal climbed 12.5%.

Bitcoin ETFs, which saw significant inflows following their U.S. launch in January last year, have experienced major outflows, losing about $3.8 billion since Feb. 24 of this year, according to Farside Investors data. Meanwhile, gold ETFs recorded their highest monthly inflows since March 2022 last month, according to the World Gold Council.

Gold ETF flows and gold's price. (World Gold Council)

These flows have meant that gold ETFs have now “reclaimed the asset crown over bitcoin ETFs,” as Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said on social media.

Spot bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. first surpassed gold ETFs in assets under management in December 2024 as the cryptocurrency market surged after Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections.

Meanwhile, gold has been seeing a significant run. This Friday, it exceeded the $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time ever, with gold futures for April delivery breaking through the same level earlier in the week.

Market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty have been helping the price of the precious metal rise as demand for a safe haven continues to grow.
Read more: Gold’s Historic Rally Leaves Bitcoin Behind, But the Trend May Reverse





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Here’s why the Toncoin price surge may be short-lived

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Toncoin price has risen by 45% from its lowest level this month after Pavel Durov was allowed to leave France after months. 

Toncoin (TON) rose to a high of $3.6240 on Saturday, its highest level since Feb. 24, bringing its market cap to over $8.4 billion. 

Pavel Durov leaves France

The surge happened in part because of the ongoing crypto prices rebound and after French authorities gave Durov his passport, allowing him the freedom to leave the country. 

https://twitter.com/ton_blockchain/status/1900923518281543959?s=46

Durov was arrested in 2024 in France and was accused of several crimes, including complicity in managing an online platform that enabled illegal transactions. Allegations include refusal to cooperate with authorities, drug trafficking and money laundering.

Following Durov’s arrest, many in the crypto community rallied in his defense.

Still, there are risks that the Toncoin price surge may be short-lived because of its fairly weak on-chain metrics. Data compiled by TonStat shows that the TON inflation has continued rising and currently stands at 0.40%, up from 0.33% in October. This inflation has jumped as the total supply has surged to over 5.124 billion. 

More data shows that the number of transactions per day crashed to 2.15 million from almost 20 million in September last year. 

TON Transactions per day
TON transactions per day | Source: Tonstat

The number of active wallets in the TON Blockchain has continued to drop. Also, the total value locked in its DeFi ecosystem has dropped to $180 million from almost $800 million a few months ago.

STON.fi, its biggest DEX network, has a small market share, handling $7.1 million in the last 24 hours.

One reason for this performance is that most tokens in the TON Blockchain, like Hamster Kombat (HMSTR), Catizen (CATI) and Tapswap, have crashed — erasing billions of dollars in value. 

The Toncoin price may also drop as investors sell the Durov release news. Historically, traders initially overreact to major news and then sell after a while. Recall when Cardano’s price rose after being named one of the tokens included in President Trump’s stockpile (the coin tumbled by double digits a few days later).

Toncoin price analysis

Here’s why the Toncoin price surge may be short-lived - 1
TON price chart | Source: crypto.news

The daily chart shows that the TON price has bounced back after bottoming at $2.3650 this month. It rose to a high of $3.50, which coincided with the 50-day moving average, a sign that it has found substantial resistance. 

Toncoin price also found resistance at the weak, stop and reverse point of the Murrey Math Lines. Therefore, the token will likely resume the downtrend and move below $3 as the Durov news starts to fade. 





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