Markets
How Bitcoin Traders Are Playing the US Election
Published
5 months agoon
By
admin

If you’re fixated on the price of Bitcoin, then you may already have your answer.
On Election Day, America’s choice between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris carries consequences for the crypto industry—from a potential shakeup at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the passage of a regulatory framework.
It could take days to determine Tuesday’s White House winner, but analysts told Decrypt that there are several tea leaves that traders could read into in the meantime, ranging from Senate races to the resiliency of Bitcoin’s price in the face of normally bearish news.
While Bernstein analysts forecast that Bitcoin could pop to $90,000 on a Trump victory earlier this week, Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives Greg Magadini told Decrypt that the Bitcoin futures “market is pretty convinced a Trump victory brings us past $80,000” by the end of the month.
Bitcoin is currently trading for about $69,150 as of this writing, up more than 3% on the day—though it’s dipped from a daily high above $70,500 on Tuesday morning.
The implied volatility of Bitcoin futures contracts, measuring how much the market expects the asset’s price to change, is quite elevated at above 80%, Magadini added. The last two times the metric pushed as high was when spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January and amid last year’s banking crisis, suggesting Bitcoin’s price could swing forcefully in either direction, he said.
Though Trump has turned himself into a vocal supporter of digital assets on the campaign trail, Grayscale’s Managing Director of Research Zach Pandl told Decrypt that Senate races are ultimately the most important barometer for the future outlook of the crypto industry.
Because the Senate has the authority to approve presidential appointees at agencies like the SEC, Harris’ camp would likely collaborate with Republicans if they’re able to gain control, Pandl said. At the same time, the Senate’s makeup could determine how the regulatory backdrop surrounding decentralized finance and the tokenization of assets develops, he said.
“As long as we see Republican control of the Senate, we think that we will have a balanced mix of financial service regulators in the United States that would put the whole industry on solid footing for the coming years,” Pandl said. “In my personal opinion, there’s actually more election risk for Ethereum and other coins beyond Bitcoin.”
The sentiment was echoed by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, who highlighted Solana’s 3.8% rise Tuesday to $165 as evidence of traders positioning around the election’s regulatory implications.
“I think Solana is the asset to keep an eye on,” he said. “Of the major assets, it’s probably the most exposed to the difference in regulatory uncertainty between a Harris and Trump regime.”
Alongside Bitcoin’s rise Tuesday, GSR Head of Research Brian Ruddick told Decrypt that some traders may be trying to allocate to the asset early based on Trump’s White House prospects.
Given that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $500 million in net outflows Monday, he said the move would typically hurt Bitcoin’s price. Meanwhile, the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox moved $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin to a new wallet late Monday, a move that has historically caused some market volatility.
“Prices are higher despite some negative news over the last day,” Ruddick said. “It seems like traders are trying to front-run the election and a potential Trump win.”
Edited by Andrew Hayward
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Markets
As Bitcoin Mining Companies Slump, Tether Loads Up on Bitdeer
Published
25 minutes agoon
April 18, 2025By
admin

Bitcoin miners may be struggling as the price of the biggest cryptocurrency by market value trades sideways, and investors sell off their equity—but stablecoin giant Tether is betting big on one of the sector’s largest players, purchasing about $32 million in equity in publicly traded Bitdeer in April.
An SEC filing shows Tether snapped up the shares as the price of Bitdeer’s stock dropped. Tether did not immediately respond to Decrypt’s questions, but the company has increased its interest in the Bitcoin mining space: The company bought a stake in Bitdeer last year, and in March, filings showed that it had increased its stake in the company to 21%.
The stablecoin company said Monday that it would support Bitcoin mining pool Ocean, too, by providing it with hash rate to help mine blocks and reap the BTC rewards.
Nasdaq-listed Bitdeer (BTDR) finished the day trading at $7.62 a share, down nearly 67% year-to-date and part of an industry-wide swoon that’s come as Bitcoin has lost momentum and mining difficulty has soared, making it difficult for miners to recover their costs.
The share price of MARA Holdings, the largest miner by market capitalization, is off 26% so far this year, while fellow large miner Riot Platforms is down over 38%.
Last week, miners quickly offloaded Bitcoin in frantic selling, likely to raise funds, data from CryptoQuant showed.
Bitcoin was recently changing hands at about $85,000, up nearly 7% over the past week but well off its record high near $109,000 set in January.
Tether is the company behind USDT, a digital token that runs on a number of blockchains. USDT is the biggest stablecoin, the third-largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap, and often the most-traded crypto token by daily volume.
As a stablecoin, it’s backed by dollars, treasuries, and other investments, so the value of the cryptocurrency can be used like fiat currency—mainly so traders can enter and exit trades without using a bank.
Tether has had legal problems, though. In February 2021, the company agreed to no longer do business in New York after a two-year state attorney general investigation found it had “made false statements about the backing” of its stablecoin.
Still, Tether has pointed to quarterly attestations and transparency reports as proof its crypto is backed as claimed. The firm also confirmed to Decrypt that it is working with a Big Four accounting firm to get independently audited.
Edited by James Rubin
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Gold Is Still the Safe-Haven King, While Bitcoin Loses Out: JP Morgan
Published
8 hours agoon
April 17, 2025By
admin

Bitcoin‘s safe-haven narrative isn’t living up to its mythical status, according to JP Morgan, with investors instead preferring to put their cash into gold amid recent market volatility spurred by President Trump’s global trade war.
Analysts at the top investment bank said in a Thursday report that gold exchange-traded funds and futures are receiving most of the investment action, as speculators look for a safe bet.
Gold’s price has soared since last year, and this week hit a new high over $3,660. Bitcoin has dropped since it broke a new record in January. It has been trading sideways this month, and is more than 20% off its record high near $109,000, set on Jan. 20, the day of U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Bitcoin in the past has correlated to the precious metal, and advocates describe the top cryptocurrency as “digital gold.” But the asset—which began trading in 2009—has in recent years correlated with U.S. equities, especially tech stocks.
“Bitcoin has failed to benefit from the safe haven flows that have been supporting gold in recent months,” the JP Morgan report said, noting that while investors have pumped money into gold ETFs, speculators have cashed out of the new American crypto ETFs.
Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. briefly overtook their gold counterparts in December, thanks to the virtual coin’s price increase, before losing ground to them.
Trump’s November election helped boost crypto prices, as the Republican campaigned on helping the digital asset industry by ratcheting back regulations the industry deemed unfair.
But a combination of geopolitical uncertainty, President Trump’s aggressive tariffs, and fears of a recession have led investors to go to the ultimate safe-haven asset: gold.
Bitcoin was changing hands near $85,000 on Wednesday, roughly where it started in April, according to crypto data provider CoinGecko.
It has fared better than major equity indexes, which have lost ground this month with the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq both off by about 6%.
Edited by James Rubin
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) Price in Standstill at $85K as Trump Increases Pressure on Fed’s Powell
Published
10 hours agoon
April 17, 2025By
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Bitcoin (BTC) was treading water just below $85,000 late Thursday as tensions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell added another layer of uncertainty for investors.
Markets dipped on Wednesday after hawkish comments from Powell, who criticized Trump’s tariffs policy, saying that it would likely result in a slowing economy and rising prices — what economists call “stagflation.” In his remarks, Powell made clear his larger focus for now would be on prices, suggesting tighter Fed policy than otherwise thought.
Trump — who nominated the former investment banker and lawyer as Fed chair during his first term (Powell was given a second four-year term by President Biden) — has expressed his displeasure with Powell since retaking the White House. Powell, though, who is set to remain atop the central bank until May 2026, has repeatedly stated his determination to finish his term and suggested the president has no standing to fire him.
On Thursday, the WSJ reported that Trump has been privately discussing firing Powell for months, according to people familiar with the matter. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is reportedly waiting in the wings as Powell’s replacement, but Warsh has lobbied the president not to move against the Fed chair, according to the story.
Joining Warsh in that warning is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said the move could roil already shaky U.S. markets as the central bank is supposed to be independent from political influences.
Odds of Trump removing Powell this year on the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket rose to 19%, the highest reading since the contract’s late January launch.
Trump’s comments came on the back of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting key interest rates for the seventh consecutive occasion on Thursday as it warned of a deteriorating growth outlook.
More pressure on markets came from the latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, published Thursday morning, which showed a nosedive in activity this month, sinking to its lowest level (-26.4) in two years. Meanwhile, the prices paid index climbed to its highest reading since July 2022, adding to concerns about the Trump administration’s large-scale tariff policy pushing the U.S. economy into stagflation.
The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq stock indexes traded mostly flat during the day.
A look at the crypto market showed BTC and Ethereum’s ETH up 0.8% over the past 24 hours. Most assets in the CoinDesk 20 Index traded higher during the day, with bitcoin cash (BCH), NEAR and AAVE leading gains.

How bitcoin traders position amid heightened fear on Wall Street ?
Bitcoin has stabilized between $83k and $86k with traders chasing bullish bets while still seeking downside protection.
On Deribit, traders are actively chasing calls at the 90k to $100k strikes expiring in May and June, the exchange said in a market update Thursday. The demand for calls indicates expectations for a continued price rally.
Some of these bullish bets have been funded by premiums collected by selling put options.
At the same time, there has been renewed interest in buying put options at $80k expiring this month, representing preparations for potential price declines. Buying a put option is akin to purchasing insurance against price slides.
The diverse two-way flow comes as the VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge measuring the 30-day implied volatility, still remains well above its 50-day average, despite the pullback from recent highs above 50.
The VIX is warning that the macro situation is still unraveling rather than resolving, the exchange said on X.
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