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How Trump’s Promises Could Influence BTC $250k forecast

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5 months ago

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As analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $250K, how might Trump’s promises influence this potential? What should you be watching for in the coming months?

Trump triumphs

Donald Trump is back in the Oval Office, officially winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election as the 47th president. After a high-energy election night celebration at Mar-a-Lago with guests including Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., digital asset markets surged in response.

Bitcoin (BTC) rocketed past $75,000, reaching a fresh all-time high, while crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy saw strong after-hours gains.

For crypto supporters, Trump’ win signals more than just another GOP presidency, especially as he has made bold commitments to protect crypto, a notable departure from the past, when Trump’ stance on digital assets was anything but warm.

Moreover, with Trump’ Republican allies securing a Senate majority, the path is now open for the policies he hinted at throughout his campaign—policies that could reshape the future of crypto in both the U.S. and globally.

So, what promises has he made, and what should we expect from his term? Let’s find out.

Trump’s promises to the crypto industry

Bold vision for a national crypto stockpile

One of Trump’ biggest promises to the crypto world is to create what he calls a “strategic national crypto stockpile.” In simple terms, Trump aims to prevent the government from auctioning off seized Bitcoin, instead holding onto it as a national asset.

Trump believes that, just as countries hold reserves of gold or oil, the U.S. should secure a portion of Bitcoin to hedge against future financial uncertainties.

Currently, the U.S. government often auctions off Bitcoin seized from criminal cases, such as after the Bitfinex hack, but Trump has suggested putting a halt to these sales.

This promise is crucial, given that the U.S. Marshals Service has regularly auctioned Bitcoin holdings, sometimes causing temporary market dips. Earlier this year, Germany’s sale of hundreds of millions in seized Bitcoin led to similar price swings.

While Trump hasn’t provided a concrete plan for how this reserve would be managed, some view it as a step toward positioning the U.S. as a global crypto leader.

Creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve

One of Trump’ more intriguing promises is to establish a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” for the U.S. His idea is to retain Bitcoin seized from criminal activities, rather than auctioning it off, to gradually build a substantial national Bitcoin reserve.

This proposal gained further traction when Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced a bill to create a “Bitcoin strategic reserve,” aiming to accumulate one million BTC over five years as a hedge against the national debt.

If realized, this reserve could signal a shift in the U.S. approach to crypto, positioning Bitcoin as a strategic asset on par with gold or foreign currency reserves.

Promise to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler “on day one”

Trump has also set his sights on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, pledging to fire its current chair, Gary Gensler, on his first day in office.

Appointed by President Joe Biden, Gensler has led an aggressive crackdown on the crypto industry, initiating over 100 enforcement actions against crypto companies for alleged securities violations since he 

Gensler’ stance — that much of the crypto industry falls under SEC jurisdiction — has sparked frustration among industry players, who argue they need clearer guidelines, not constant lawsuits.

However, Trump’ promise may not be as straightforward to execute. While the president can appoint the SEC chair, dismissing one requires valid grounds, like neglect or inefficiency, due to the SEC’ independent status.

Legal experts caution that firing Gensler “on day one” could prompt a lengthy review and may not happen as swiftly as Trump suggests.

Still, if Trump does manage to appoint a new SEC chair, it could mark a shift toward more crypto-friendly policies — though how much freedom the new leadership would truly have remains uncertain.

A national push for Bitcoin mining

Another bold promise from Trump is his call to ensure that all remaining Bitcoin is mined within the U.S. He envisions Bitcoin mining as “Made in the USA,” aiming to establish America as a global hub for the industry.

This vision was echoed during a private Mar-a-Lago meeting with key figures in U.S. crypto mining, including executives from major companies like Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Core Scientific.

Trump’ goal aligns with his broader agenda of “energy dominance” for the U.S., believing that Bitcoin mining could boost energy production and decrease reliance on foreign energy sources.

However, the path to this goal is challenging. Bitcoin mining is decentralized by nature, relying on thousands of miners across the globe. Centralizing it within one country would contradict the decentralized ethos on which Bitcoin was built.

Moreover, about 90% of Bitcoin’ total supply has already been mined, leaving only a small yet symbolically significant portion — around 10% — that Trump hopes to bring under U.S. control.

Stopping the central bank digital currency development

Trump has also pledged to block any progress toward a central bank digital currency in the U.S. He made his stance clear: “There will never be a CBDC while I’m president”, citing that CBDCs pose a potential threat to financial privacy.

Unlike decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, a CBDC would be fully controlled by the government, potentially allowing for extensive surveillance of citizens’ transactions.

Trump’ position aligns with other Republican leaders, such as Ron DeSantis, who recently signed a bill in Florida to limit CBDC use within the state.

Opposition to CBDCs is also building in Congress. Representative Tom Emmer introduced the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, aiming to prevent the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC without congressional approval.

The right to self-custody

Trump has also pledged to enshrine self-custody rights for crypto users into federal law, reinforcing the principle that “not your keys, not your coins” should be protected by the U.S. government.

Self-custody allows crypto holders to manage their private keys independently, ensuring they fully control their digital assets without relying on third parties like exchanges.

This promise aligns with recent legislative efforts by Republican Senator Ted Budd, who introduced the Keep Your Coins Act in 2023. The bill aims to safeguard Americans’ ability to transact with self-hosted crypto wallets, making it harder for regulators to impose restrictions on self-custody.

However, the proposal has sparked debate. Critics argue that self-custody could enable bad actors to evade anti-money laundering regulations, a concern highlighted by Senator Elizabeth Warren’ 2022 Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act, which advocates for tighter controls.

While the crypto community largely views self-custody as an essential right, questions remain about how such laws might affect the balance between personal freedom and regulatory oversight.

A crypto-friendly advisory council

One of Trump’ more structural promises is to establish a dedicated “crypto advisory council” to guide his administration’s approach to crypto policy.

The goal of this council would be to create clear, industry-friendly regulations that support crypto growth rather than stifle it. 

As Trump puts it, he wants “the rules to be written by people who love your industry, not hate it,” ensuring that crypto policies reflect a deep understanding of the industry’s needs and challenges.

Many industry insiders have voiced concerns that current regulations lack clarity, making it difficult for companies to operate within legal boundaries.

However, setting up such a council presents its own challenges, such as ensuring a diversity of perspectives and maintaining unbiased oversight.

Commuting Ross Ulbricht’s sentence

In a more controversial promise, Trump has vowed to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, founder of the Silk Road marketplace.

Ulbricht, a first-time nonviolent offender, received a double life sentence plus 40 years without parole—a punishment many view as excessively harsh. Silk Road, the darknet marketplace he created, facilitated the trade of illegal goods, from drugs to weapons, with Bitcoin as the primary currency.

Ulbricht’ case has become a rallying point within the crypto and libertarian communities, where advocates argue that his sentence was disproportionate to the nature of his crime.

Critics, however, contend that his involvement in Silk Road fueled illegal activities and harmed individuals, making any consideration of leniency a sensitive issue.

What to expect from Trump’s crypto term

Recent tweets from crypto analysts reflect a mood of optimism as Trump’ presidency begins.

Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst, describes the current state of crypto as the end of the “longest and heaviest Altcoin bear market.” 

He suggests we’re on the brink of a new “Dot.com bubble in Crypto,” hinting that this cycle could “go way higher than we all expect.”

If this outlook proves accurate, Trump’ pro-crypto stance could pave the way for a strong market rebound, benefiting from a more supportive regulatory environment.

Meanwhile, technical analyst Gert van Lagen forecasts that Bitcoin is on its “final ascent,” with a target of $250,000 by February next year.

He points to the recent reversal of the 10-2 yield curve — a classic precursor to recessions — as a sign that economic conditions could fuel a BTC rally.

For now, the industry watches to see if Trump’s bold promises can translate into action. If he delivers, the U.S. could emerge as a leader in crypto adoption, creating jobs and establishing financial alternatives that could leave a lasting mark on the entire crypto space.





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Trader Predicts Crypto Rallies Amid Expectations of Fed Monetary Policy Shift – But There’s a Catch

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1 week ago

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March 18, 2025

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A widely followed crypto analyst is predicting higher prices for crypto assets as he expects the Federal Reserve to end its anti-inflation monetary policies.

In a new thread, the pseudonymous crypto analyst Pentoshi tells his 861,300 followers on the social media platform X that we are close to seeing the end of quantitative tightening (QT), which are policies that reduce the Fed’s balance sheet and lowers the supply of money in circulation.

The trader cites data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, which shows that 100% of users believe that the Fed will end QT by May of this year.

The cessation of QT is typically seen as bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins as the move signals the end of tight monetary conditions.

However, Pentoshi warns investors to be “cautiously optimistic” as both the S&P 500 and top crypto assets have seen growth over the last few years that appears unsustainable.

“I think we are getting close to [the] end of QT with Polymarket now pricing in odds as a sure thing whereas before they were much lower odds. As previously stated, it does seem Trump would end up forcing it. I don’t think QT automatically means it’s easy mode.

I think that mode is clearly gone overall in the way people think about it (2017/2021). While prices are much lower, I think it’s best to be cautiously optimistic. Many things are down significantly and there hopefully will be some decent mean reversion. Markets in general have rallied hard. And assets were likely a bit overvalued before.

SPX going 25% back to back years was going to have low growth or negative this year as it wasn’t a sustainable pace. BTC went from $16,000 to $108,000, SOL [from] $8 to $300. Cautiously optimistic. [Be] patient for any time capitulation, as often, following big trends, we eventually get longer sideways periods and less volatility as the market finds balance.”

While Pentoshi is flipping tactically bullish on stocks and crypto, he warns investors that any rally will likely be short-lived.

“I think any up currently will be a lower high. People underestimate the time aspect.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $83,248.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Low Ethereum gas fees signal bullish mid-term sentiment

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1 month ago

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February 19, 2025

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Ethereum gas fees have dropped significantly, with the average cost of a transfer now at just $0.41, far below the $15.21 peak seen in the past two years.

According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment, low gas fees often suggest a network that isn’t overly congested, which can be a bullish signal for Ethereum’s (ETH) mid-to-long-term price outlook.

It is easier for new buyers to enter the market when there are lower transaction costs, which usually occur during times of price stagnation or negative sentiment. However, as traders and users scramble to transact, high fees typically signal soaring demand, which frequently results in temporary corrections. 

In another development that could further lower transaction fees, the Ethereum network recently approved a vote to raise its gas limit to more than 30 million. Gas limit refers to the maximum amount of gas, or computational resources, that can be consumed by all transactions in a block

A higher gas limit means the network will be able to process more transactions per block, potentially reducing congestion and lowering fees.. Gas limit has reached 35.9 million in the past 24 hours, according to data from gaslimit.pics.

Ethereum is now trading at roughly $2,674 after falling 2% over the past day. Trading volume has increased by 10% despite the drop, indicating rising investor interest. Ethereum has been consolidating between $2,565 and $2,800 for the last two weeks, but the most recent drop to the lower end of this range suggests that there may be more declines to come.

Analysis: Low Ethereum gas fees signal bullish mid-to-long-term outlook - 1
Ethereum price. Source: crypto.news

Over $60 million worth of ETH has moved off of exchanges in the last day, according to Coinglass data, which raises the possibility that investors are accumulating ETH. Because they suggest long-term holding and lessen selling pressure, exchange outflows are frequently interpreted as optimistic indicators.

However, with $121 million in short positions at $2,650 and $90 million in long positions at $2,605, intraday traders are still being cautious. This points to a greater level of short-term bearish sentiment.

The SEC’s ruling on spot Ethereum ETFs with staking integration continues to be the largest possible bullish catalyst for ETH. Some analysts believe the lack of staking yield has limited demand for these ETFs, but approval could drive institutional inflows. As of Feb 18., total cumulative ETH ETF inflows have risen to $3.16 billion, according to data from SoSoValue.

Meanwhile, ETH’s decentralized exchange activity has surged. DefiLlama data shows that Ethereum-based protocols handled $2.62 billion in 24-hour trading volume up from $1.1 billion on Feb. 16. Ethereum is closing in on Solana, which continues to face criticism over recent meme coin rug pulls. 





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Could ETFs Boost Ripple by 1,500%?

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1 month ago

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February 18, 2025

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XRP price prediction points to a 1,500% surge if the SEC approves an ETF. Could Ripple finally reach $27 and break resistance?

Ripple’s wild ride

Ripple (XRP) has experienced a rollercoaster ride in recent months, capturing the market’s attention with large price swings and major regulatory developments.

On Jan. 16, the token surged to a multi-year high of $3.39, fueled by strong market sentiment. However, the rally was short-lived.

As of Feb. 17, XRP has pulled back to $2.68, marking a 21% decline from its January peak. It remains approximately 31% below its all-time high of $3.89, which was reached in January 2018.

Despite this pullback, XRP remains one of the top-performing assets in the top 100, delivering an impressive 145% return over the past 90 days. This outpaces heavyweights like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), both of which have lost value during the same period.

Amid these fluctuations, broader market forces are also at play. The election of President Donald Trump introduced a more crypto-friendly atmosphere in the U.S., with the Trump administration’s positive stance on digital assets boosting investor confidence. This, in turn, has contributed to the upward trajectory of crypto assets, including XRP.

Additionally, the resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler has further fueled optimism, as market participants anticipate a more accommodating regulatory environment under the new SEC leadership of acting chair Mark Uyeda.

With a mix of strong price action, regulatory intrigue, and shifting political winds, what can we expect from XRP? Let’s explore this further in our Ripple price prediction.

Is the XRP ETF finally coming?

Amid ongoing volatility and key developments, XRP has remained in the spotlight.

A major turning point came on Feb. 13, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission formally acknowledged a filing from the New York Stock Exchange and Grayscale Investments for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund.

The proposal outlines a plan to convert Grayscale’s existing $16.1 million XRP Trust into a fully tradable ETF, with Coinbase Custody Trust Company acting as the custodian and BNY Mellon handling administrative duties.

The SEC’s acknowledgement means that the review process has officially begun, setting the stage for a potential approval or rejection within a 240-day window. 

The first key deadline is set for mid-March, marking the start of a 45-day review period. After that, the SEC may either make a decision or extend the timeline, with a final decision expected by mid-October 2025.

But Grayscale isn’t the only firm pushing for an XRP ETF. The Chicago Board Options Exchange has also filed a 19b-4 application for Bitwise’s XRP ETF, with other firms also vying for approval. Unlike Grayscale, which seeks to convert an existing trust into an ETF, Bitwise is launching a completely new fund.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, recently discussed the challenges and progress of XRP ETF applications. He noted that while previous filings have seen starts and stops, with some firms withdrawing their applications, the fact that multiple issuers are now refiling suggests that the SEC is at least open to considering these ETFs.

Hougan remains cautiously optimistic, pointing out that while approval could take time, the SEC is becoming more willing to engage in discussions about these products. 

He also highlighted a key difference between XRP and other commodity-based ETFs like Bitcoin and gold — those assets had regulated futures markets before their ETFs were approved, whereas XRP does not. 

Although a futures market is not mandatory for XRP ETFs, it would play a key role in the approval process.

What makes these filings particularly striking is the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC. In December 2020, the SEC sued Ripple, arguing that XRP had been sold as an unregistered security.

Ripple scored a partial victory in August 2023 when a federal judge ruled that XRP is not a security when traded on secondary markets. However, regulatory uncertainty still persists, making the ETF approval process for XRP more complex compared to spot Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum ETFs.

Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, pointed out the irony — while the SEC remains in litigation with Ripple, it is simultaneously reviewing an ETF that would hold XRP. Geraci even called it an “enormous message,” suggesting that the SEC’s stance on XRP might be shifting.

Adding to the growing buzz, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have estimated a 65% probability of XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025.

XRP’s make-or-break moment looms

XRP is at a make-or-break moment, approaching a resistance level that has defined its fate for years. 

Over the past two months, XRP has tested the $3.15 to $3.50 range, a zone that has consistently determined whether XRP breaks into a major rally or gets stuck in consolidation.

On Jan. 16, XRP reached a multi-year high of $3.39, but that attempt to push higher ultimately failed. Then, on Feb. 3, XRP plunged 43% to $1.94 as global markets were shaken by Trump’s tariff threats, causing a widespread selloff that led to one of the worst declines in crypto history.

Despite the chaos, XRP has since rebounded and is once again nearing the same resistance level, setting the stage for another potential breakout.

Beyond the short-term volatility, something even more significant is unfolding. XRP is nearing the completion of a rounding bottom pattern that has been forming since 2018, a structure that has taken nearly seven years to develop.

Ripple price prediction: A 1,500% boost to $27 — Is the 2017 bull run repeating? - 1
XRP price chart | Source: crypto.news

If XRP reaches its all-time high of $3.89, the pattern will officially complete, signalling the end of a prolonged accumulation phase. At that point, XRP would enter price discovery, meaning there would be no historical resistance left to hold it back.

The question now is what will provide the final push. Broader market conditions are not fully supportive yet, as Bitcoin hasn’t hit a new all-time high, and liquidity remains concentrated in just a few assets.

One of the biggest potential catalysts is ETF approval. If the SEC greenlights an XRP ETF, institutional demand could surge, driving prices past resistance with sheer volume.

Another key factor could be strategic adoption — if XRP is included in a financial system reserve or gains a major institutional use case, the surge in demand could propel it into uncharted territory.

The third wildcard is the SEC lawsuit appeal. If the appeal is dismissed, legal clarity alone could trigger a wave of buying.

Now, all eyes are on whether XRP can finally push through or if history will repeat itself once again. The next attempt to clear $3.50 may prove to be the most significant in its history.

XRP price prediction: Could history repeat itself?

XRP’s 2017 bull run remains a key reference point, with several indicators suggesting that XRP is now mirroring the setup that led to its parabolic rise. 

One of the bullish arguments comes from Egrag Crypto, which points to the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB), a technical indicator used to determine whether an asset is in a bullish or bearish phase.

“Currently, we’re positioned above the BMSB,” he explains, noting that he had predicted XRP would revisit this level, even when the price was at $3.40. A successful retest of this support could signal that the market is gathering strength for the next move.

Egrag draws parallels to 2017 when XRP followed a nearly identical pattern. He notes that back then, XRP nearly hit the BMSB, which preceded a 1,500% surge in just four weeks, targeting the Fib 1.618 level. 

Fibonacci levels are widely used in technical analysis to predict price movements, and in 2017, XRP’s breakout followed this exact pattern. If history repeats itself, Egrag suggests a 1,500% surge to $27.

Javon Marks takes this further, highlighting how XRP’s recent price action mirrors its 2017 breakout. Prices recently tested the all-time high as resistance, just as they did in 2017 before surging beyond it. Marks’ new second target is at $99, an astonishing 3,900% increase from current levels.

Beyond Fibonacci extensions, Elliott Wave theory also points to significant potential for XRP. Dark Defender has been tracking XRP’s wave structure since July 2023, when the price was around 40 to 50 cents. 

According to his analysis, XRP is currently in Wave 4 of the Intermediate Cycle, with Wave 5 targeting $5.85. His Primary Cycle Waves, which track long-term movements, suggest a major upside target of $18.22.

“I’ve used the same structure since July 2023, and we are following it as the Northern Star,” Dark Defender explains, suggesting XRP has consistently respected this pattern. If his wave count holds, XRP could be on the verge of completing a major cycle.

However, big breakouts don’t happen in isolation. XRP still faces its biggest resistance zone between $3.15 and $3.50, which requires a major catalyst to break through.

For traders looking to take advantage of this setup, risk management is key. Placing stop-loss orders can help minimize losses in case of rejection, and avoiding over-leveraging is crucial, as sudden pullbacks could lead to liquidation.

However, nothing in the crypto market is guaranteed. The same indicators that suggest explosive upside potential can also fail under changing market conditions. Trade wisely, manage risk, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.





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