A popular crypto analyst thinks Ethereum (ETH) will have to endure some “pain” before rebounding.

In a new YouTube video, Benjamin Cowen tells his 886,000 subscribers that there probably needs to be a change in monetary policy in order for ETH’s chart against Bitcoin (BTC) to bottom.

“But in order to have a change in monetary policy, you have to have pain. Welcome to the pain. This is the pain that you ultimately need. Remember last cycle [in 2019], ETH/Bitcoin bottomed after ETH/USD broke support.” 

Cowen notes that ETH fell below its support level against the US dollar in 2019 right before the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening.

The analyst says that everything that happened in the previous cycle is “basically happening this cycle, it’s just taking place on a longer timeframe.” Cowen also notes that most of the price points of the current cycle are roughly 10x what they were in the 2019 market.

“The reason why people are having a hard time navigating this cycle and why it feels so different is because monetary policy never changed this cycle. In the last cycle, we saw a change in monetary policy in the pre-halving year. We’re now in the post-halving year and we still haven’t seen a change to the quantitative tightening. We’ve seen them taper it a little bit. They’ve slowed it down, but they’ve never actually stopped it.”   

ETH is trading at $1,907 at time of writing. The second-ranked crypto asset by market cap is down more than 1% in the past 24 hours.

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Generated Image: Midjourney

A widely followed crypto analyst says that one metric suggests Bitcoin (BTC) is gearing up for a massive breakout.

In a new strategy session, pseudonymous crypto trader Inmortal tells his 230,900 followers on the social media platform X that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is flashing bullish for digital assets as it has reached “extreme fear,” a level seen during historical market collapses.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is a metric that gauges the fear or greed levels in the market with a reading of extreme fear indicating oversold conditions and a reading of extreme greed suggesting overbought conditions.

“Fear is at same levels we saw during Covid-19 crash and 2022 bottom. All of this while US announced a Bitcoin reserve.”

He also says that based on historic precedence market sentiment may remain in “extreme fear” anywhere from a month-and-a-half to about five months.

“Last cycle we visited extreme fear three times, and these periods lasted between 50 and 160 days.”

The analyst believes Bitcoin is repeating a similar pattern from 2024, when BTC retested a support level that erased gains from a bullish run before taking off to print new all-time highs.

“We doing this again.”

Lastly, the analyst says Ethereum (ETH) may be on the verge of a massive breakout similar to what Bitcoin did in 2020.

“I should accept that it’s all over, as others have already done. I’m not saying it will happen, but if the bull run is not finished, we should see something similar to this.”

Bitcoin is trading for $82,874 at time of writing, flat on the day. Meanwhile, ETH is trading for $1,881 at time of writing, down 3.5% in the last 24 hours.

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Generated Image: Midjourney

Ethereum has struggled to gain momentum, remaining stuck below critical resistance for over a year. Despite multiple attempts, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been unable to break through key technical levels since the beginning of this year. 

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Ethereum’s price action over the past two weeks has shown more weakness. An interesting analysis from analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino shows that the cryptocurrency recently failed to break above a resistance indicator and is now at risk of more catastrophic price drops.

Ethereum Fails To Breach Long-Term Resistance

Tony “The Bull” Severino, in a technical analysis shared on social media platform X, highlighted Ethereum’s persistent failure to overcome major resistance levels. He pointed out that Ethereum has been unable to tag the quarterly (three-month) Parabolic SAR despite more than a year of attempts. This indicator, often used to determine the direction of an asset’s trend, shows that Ethereum is locked in a prolonged struggle against resistance on a larger downtrend. 

“This feels like it sends a message — resistance won’t be broken,” the analyst said.

Image From X: Tony “The Bull” Severino

Adding to the failure to break resistance, Tony Severino also noted in another analysis that Ethereum has repeatedly faced rejection from the quarterly (3M) SuperTrend dynamic resistance, further solidifying the case that buyers have been unable to regain control.

Image From X: Tony “The Bull” Severino

A Monthly Close Below $2,100 Could Be Catastrophic

Ethereum’s inability to sustain key price levels has been a dominant theme in the past six months. Interestingly, this inability was shown further in the past two weeks. After failing to hold above $2,800, the cryptocurrency has seen a steady drop, losing multiple support zones along the way. 

Currently, Ethereum is trading below $2,200, edging dangerously close to breaking below the crucial $2,100 threshold. A drop beneath this level is particularly concerning, not just because it signifies the loss of yet another psychological support but because technical indicators suggest that a monthly close below $2,100 could have severe consequences.

One of the most significant warning signs comes from the quarterly Bollinger Bands indicator, which has tracked Ethereum’s price action since February 2022. According to this indicator, Ethereum has remained within a defined range, with the upper Bollinger Band currently positioned at $4,190 and the lower band at $2,098. The worrying part is that a monthly close below $2,100 would effectively translate to breaking beneath the lower Bollinger Band and removing a long-standing support level.

Image From X: Tony “The Bull” Severino

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At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,178, having gained 2.2% in the past 24 hours after starting the day at $2,120. Ethereum’s sentiment is now at its lowest level this year. The next few weeks will be crucial to see if Ethereum can reclaim lost ground and prevent a monthly close below $2,100.

Featured image from Tech Magazine, chart from TradingView