Bitcoin just dropped 24% from its all-time high — what happens next? Analysts say BTC is “very close to its local bottom,” but could a Black Swan event send it crashing even lower?

Macro turmoil shakes Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has been on a bumpy stretch. After hitting an all-time high of $109,114 in January when President Donald Trump took office and established a more pro-crypto administration, the market has taken a sharp turn.

As of Mar. 13, Bitcoin is sitting around $82,600, down 24% from its January peak, after plunging to a four-month low of $76,600 on Mar. 11.

The market is facing headwinds from multiple directions. Wall Street is leaning into risk aversion, U.S. recession fears are growing, and Trump’s new tariff policies have added uncertainty to the mix.

Many investors were also disappointed by the lack of fresh BTC purchases under the Trump administration’s strategic reserve plan, which some had hoped would provide a steady buying force for Bitcoin.

On the macroeconomic side, inflation data released on Mar. 12 offered a brief moment of optimism. The consumer price index rose by just 0.2% in February, slowing to an annual inflation rate of 2.8% — down from 0.5% in January. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, also landed at 3.1%, its lowest level since April 2021.

The market initially reacted positively to the softer CPI data. Bitcoin pushed above $84,000, and altcoins saw double-digit gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also recorded slight upticks.

But the optimism didn’t last. As the day progressed, BTC and equities erased most of their gains, weighed down by Trump’s tariff war escalating against major trading partners.

In a dramatic move, Trump slapped a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports from Canada, prompting Canada to retaliate with 25% tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. goods.

Just hours later, the EU fired back with its own $28 billion in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, further intensifying trade tensions.

These actions have put investors on edge, shifting market sentiment toward a risk-off approach, where cash and safer assets like gold and bonds become more attractive than volatile plays like Bitcoin.

With all these forces at play, Bitcoin finds itself at a crossroads. Will it stabilize and gear up for another run, or are further corrections on the horizon? Let’s dig deeper.

Institutional money retreats

Since Feb. 13, spot Bitcoin ETFs have been under pressure, with money flowing out at an aggressive pace. While there were a few days of net positive inflows, they were small in volume compared to the heavy outflows on most days.

The worst hit came on Feb. 25, when ETFs saw their largest single-day outflow ever — over $1 billion, marking a clear risk-off sentiment among institutional investors.

Despite the outflows, as of Mar. 12, BlackRock’s IBIT remains the dominant ETF in the market, holding nearly 568,000 BTC. Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC follow, managing 197,500 BTC and 196,000 BTC, respectively.

Adding a political layer to the Bitcoin narrative, at least six members of President Trump’s cabinet hold Bitcoin, either directly or indirectly through ETFs.

Among them, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the largest disclosed stake, with a Bitcoin Fidelity crypto account valued between $1 million and $5 million.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent holds between $250,001 and $500,000 worth of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. While Bessent has pledged to divest his holdings within 90 days, his position highlights the growing connection between Bitcoin and top-level U.S. policymakers.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s open interest, a crucial metric showing the total value of outstanding BTC derivative contracts, has been in a downward spiral.

After peaking at $70 billion on Jan. 22, following Bitcoin’s new all-time high, open interest has been on a steady decline. As BTC tumbled, OI followed, dropping to a low of $45.7 billion on Mar. 11, the same day BTC hit its four-month low.

However, in the last two days, open interest has started climbing back, adding over $1 billion as of Mar. 13, in sync with BTC’s price recovery.

The heavy ETF outflows and dropping open interest paint a picture of institutional hesitation and reduced speculative activity over the past few weeks.

Bitcoin’s rally in January was fueled by strong ETF inflows and high-leveraged positions, but as soon as macro uncertainty and Trump’s trade war escalated, the market turned defensive.

The latest open interest rebound is a potential signal that traders are cautiously re-entering long positions, but the recovery is slow. A sustained increase in both OI and ETF inflows will be critical for Bitcoin to regain momentum.

History hints at a rebound

Bitcoin’s recent pullback from its all-time high has been sharp, but historical trends and technical indicators suggest that this could either be a temporary bottom or the beginning of a deeper correction.

Technical analyst CryptoCon points out that Bitcoin has now reached historically low RSI Bollinger Band % levels, a point where BTC rarely stays for long.

To break this down — Relative Strength Index measures momentum, while Bollinger Bands show volatility. When the RSI Bollinger % reaches extreme lows, it suggests that Bitcoin is at an oversold level, meaning the downside pressure is likely exhausting itself.

In previous cycles, when BTC hit similar RSI Bollinger % lows, it marked a strong local bottom before the next leg up.

According to CryptoCon, Bitcoin has just completed Phase 4, a part of the market cycle where price breaks past the previous all-time high—something we saw in January 2013, December 2016, and November 2020.

In all three of these cycles, BTC had a correction after the breakout before rallying to a new high within the next 9 to 12 months.

He believes that this market cycle is behaving exactly like March 2017, when BTC faced a deep correction but then recovered to rally further. If that’s the case, this means we are still months away from a cycle top.

However, this optimistic outlook is far from universally accepted. Doctor Profit, another respected analyst, lays out two possible scenarios for BTC’s next move.

In a normal market environment, BTC’s local bottom should form between $68,000 and $74,000, as confirmed by the Market Value to Realized Value indicator.

The MVRV indicator measures whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued by comparing the current market price to the average purchase price of all BTC in circulation.

Right now, the MVRV suggests that BTC is approaching a strong bottom zone, meaning downside risk is limited unless something drastic happens.

That’s where the Black Swan risk comes in. While Doctor Profit initially believed a Black Swan event was highly unlikely, recent economic shifts — such as Trump’s aggressive tariff moves, global trade war concerns, and broader recession fears — make him less certain.

A severe global economic downturn, a financial crisis, or a major crypto industry collapse could push Bitcoin much lower, possibly toward $50,000. While he still leans toward the first scenario, he no longer rules out a full-blown market wipeout.

The signs are mixed. Bitcoin’s historical cycles suggest this is a healthy pullback before another rally, but global conditions have rarely been this unstable.

For now, investors should stay cautious, watch key support levels, and be prepared for heightened volatility.

While historical data favors a recovery, markets don’t move in a vacuum, and external shocks can override even the strongest technical indicators. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

From crypto queen to global fugitive: OneCoin’s Ruja Ignatova disappeared with billions, leaving a mystery still unsolved.

For eight years, the world has speculated about the fate of Ruja Ignatova: the so-called “Cryptoqueen” who vanished with billions after pitching OneCoin, a classic Ponzi scheme, leaving behind a trail of lies, lawsuits, and a mystery that refuses to die.

Crypto.news spoke with those who have dug deep into her story to get their take on where she might be now.

Shortly on her background as context: born in May 1980 in Bulgaria, Ruja Ignatova moved to Germany with her family at the age of ten, settling in Schramberg, Baden-Württemberg. She pursued higher education with distinction, earning a doctorate in private international law from the University of Konstanz in 2005. She even had a brief academic stint at the University of Oxford.

Before rising to infamy as the “Cryptoqueen,” Ignatova worked at McKinsey & Company as a consultant. However, her business ventures soon took a questionable turn. In 2012, she and her father, Plamen Ignatov, were convicted of fraud in Germany related to the acquisition and subsequent bankruptcy of a firm.

“The next Bitcoin”

It may not be widely known, but OneCoin wasn’t Ignatova’s first venture into crypto.

In 2013, she was involved in a multi-level marketing scam called BigCoin. Reports indicate that BigCoin was launched by John Ng and based in Hong Kong, with the project marketed using the usual MLM cryptocurrency pitch: “We’re gonna be the next Bitcoin.”

It’s not clear when, but at some point, the project was joined by Ronnie Skold, Sebastian Greenwood, Nigel Allen, and Ruja Ignatova herself. Long story short, BigCoin didn’t make it, as it turned out to be an ordinary Ponzi scheme, operating without a blockchain at all. By 2014, Ignatova left BigCoin to co-found a new venture with Sebastian Greenwood, better known to the world as OneCoin.

Second attempt

While Ruja Ignatova was the mastermind behind the project, Sebastian Greenwood was a key figure in the operations of OneCoin. Unlike Ignatova, though, Greenwood was arrested in 2018 and sentenced to 20 years in prison.

The two branded OneCoin as a revolutionary cryptocurrency poised to kill Bitcoin. Through high-profile events and persuasive marketing, they convinced thousands — if not millions — to invest, raising an estimated $4 billion globally. And still, like BigCoin, OneCoin also wasn’t operating on any blockchain, which led to the project’s crash three years after the launch.

On the run?

As authorities doubled down on their investigations, Ignatova vanished. In October 2017, she boarded a flight from Bulgaria, Greece and… disappeared. Without a trace. Over the years, theories about her fate have ranged from surgical alterations to mafia assassinations. Some reports even suggested that she was murdered on a yacht in the Ionian Sea on the orders of a Bulgarian crime figure, with her body allegedly dismembered and discarded.

There’re also rumors that Ignatova might actually be on the run, hiding in South Africa, Dubai, or even in Russia.

German documentary filmmaker Johan von Mirbach, who directed the 2022 investigative documentary “The Cryptoqueen – The Great OneCoin Fraud” doesn’t buy theories about Ignatova’s death. In an interview with crypto.news, Mirbach said he doesn’t believe in theories about her death, as there are too many “failed efforts to lay false tracks about her whereabouts.”

“I have talked to security sources from South Africa and Germany. There are investigations going on about where she could hide in South Africa. But nobody can tell where she really is. She could be in South Africa, in Dubai or — as you claim — in Russia or elsewhere. I’m convinced though that she is still alive as there are so many failed efforts to lay false tracks about her whereabouts.”

Johan von Mirbach

In June 2022, the FBI placed Ignatova on its ten most wanted fugitives list, initially offering a $100,000 reward for information leading to her arrest. By June 2024, that bounty had grown to $5 million. While Ignatova’s whereabouts aren’t clear, legal proceedings surrounding her name continue up to these days.

New opportunity

For instance, in August 2024, London’s High Court issued a worldwide freeze order on assets linked to Ignatova and her associates following revelations that OneCoin promoters had invested in luxury properties in the United Arab Emirates, including a $2.7 million penthouse in Dubai.

By late 2024, investigators had focused their search on Cape Town, South Africa, with speculation that she was living in an exclusive enclave under a false identity.

However, new reports in November 2024 suggested that Ignatova may instead be hiding in Russia. According to journalist Yordan Tsalov, who specializes in Kremlin affairs and has worked with Bellingcat, a Netherlands-based investigative journalism group, Ignatova has ties to individuals connected to the Russian government.

Tsalov says these links were confirmed by Ignatova’s former security adviser, Frank Schneider, a former Swiss intelligence officer who was hired by OneCoin and later interviewed by Tsalov for a BBC series.

Commenting on the scale of the OneCoin scam, Mirbach says the crypto industry is an “incredible space” not only for new businesses but also for criminals who could gain “much more than with simple analogue frauds.”

“They can just scale their scam to another level. The same mechanism that promotes and boosts online/digital business boots online fraud. Mobsters will also always go into news unexplored and unregulated markets and follow what is coming up.”

Johan von Mirbach

Now, Mirbach says he’s just waiting for the “first AI-driven fraud that is coming up with this new opportunity.”

From network tokens to meme coins, a16z crypto has laid out a framework to help businesses navigate the evolving crypto landscape.

What is a cryptocurrency? According to Wikipedia’s definition, it is a digital currency designed to work through a computer network that is “not reliant on any central authority, such as a government or bank, to uphold or maintain it.”

And while at the very beginning in 2009 there was one and only cryptocurrency out there, called Bitcoin (BTC), things have changed significantly since then. Now, there over 12 million different tokens, per data from crypto price aggregator platforms. But how to differ them? There are memecoins, utility tokens, security tokens, and many more. No wonder crypto has become so complex.

“So, whether you’re building a blockchain-based project, investing in tokens, or simply using them as a consumer, it’s essential to know what to look for. It’s important not to confuse, for instance, memecoins with network tokens.”

a16z crypto

To help sort the crypto things out, Miles Jennings, Scott Duke Kominers, and Eddy Lazzarin from a16z crypto created a framework for understanding the seven categories of tokens they see entrepreneurs building with most often. Below is a breakdown of these categories.

Network tokens

Network tokens are used to keep a blockchain or smart contract protocol running. Basically, their value comes from how the network works. They usually have a clear purpose, like helping with network operations, forming consensus, upgrading the protocol, or rewarding certain actions within the network.

As a16z crypto explains, these networks, where the tokens live, usually have features like “programmatic buybacks, dividends, and other changes to the total token supply via token creation or burning to introduce inflationary and deflationary pressures in service of the network.”

Network tokens depend on trust. And in this aspect a16z crypto says these tokens “are similar to both commodities and securities.”

“Recognizing this, both the SEC’s 2019 Framework and FIT21 provided for network tokens to be excluded from U.S. securities laws when those trust dependencies are mitigated through decentralization of the underlying network.”

a16z crypto

These tokens are used to launch new networks, distribute ownership or control, and keep the network secure. The brightest examples are Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Uniswap (UNI), and Dogecoin (DOGE).

Security tokens

While network tokens might seem like securities, security tokens are actually digital versions of traditional securities, like company shares or corporate bonds. They can also have special features, like giving profits interest in an LLC or rights to future settlement payments from lawsuits.

While securities give holders specific rights, titles, or interests, and the issuer often controls the asset’s risk, these tokens will still be under U.S. securities laws, as a16z crypto points out. Even though these tokens aren’t as common as network tokens or memecoins, they’ve still been used to raise money for business ventures.

For example, Etherfuse Stablebonds and Aspen Coin gave people fractional ownership in the St. Regis Aspen Resort.

Company-backed tokens

Company-backed tokens are tied to an off-chain application, product, or service run by a company or centralized organization.

Like network tokens, company-backed tokens may use blockchain and smart contracts (e.g., to facilitate payments). However, they primarily serve off-chain operations rather than network ownership. As a result, a company has more control over the issuance, utility, and value of the token.

Although these tokens don’t provide a defined right or title like traditional securities, they still have trust dependencies akin to securities.

“Their value is inherently dependent upon a system that is controlled by a person, company or management team.”

a16z crypto

For this exact reason, company-backed tokens could be subject to U.S. securities laws when they attract investment, the analysts warn. Historically, company-backed tokens have been used to circumvent securities laws in the U.S., acting as proxies for equity or profits interests in companies.

For instance, examples include (FTT), which was a profit interest in the notorious FTX exchange. Binance Coin (BNB) is another example of a company-backed token that transitioned into a network token after the launch of BNB Chain.

Arcade tokens

Arcade tokens are primarily used within a system and are not meant for investment, a16z crypto explains. These tokens often serve as currencies within virtual economies, like digital gold in a game, loyalty points for a membership program, or credits for digital products.

What makes arcade tokens unique is that they are designed to discourage speculation. They may have an uncapped supply — meaning an unlimited number can be minted — and/or limited transferability.

As a16z crypto points out, these tokens may even “expire or lose value if unused, or they may only have monetary value and utility within the system in which they are issued.” As a rule, arcade tokens don’t promise financial returns, which makes them relatively safe from U.S. securities laws.

Examples include FLY, the loyalty token for the Blackbird restaurant network, and Pocketful of Quarters, an in-game asset that received relief from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 2019.

Collectible tokens

One of the most well-known types of tokens are collectible ones. They can represent things like a work of art, a music piece, or even a concert ticket stub. But for the public, they’re more commonly known by a different name — NFTs, or non-fungible tokens. And while NFTs might seem like another speculative bubble, these tokens may actually have utility within specific contexts.

“A collectible token may function as a license or ticket to an event; could be used in a video game (like that sword); or could provide ownership rights with respect to intellectual property.”

a16z crypto

Because collectable tokens generally relate to finished goods and don’t rely on third-party efforts, they are usually excluded from U.S. securities laws, a16z crypto notes. The well-known NFTs are probably Bored Ape Yacht Club and CryptoPunks.

Asset-backed tokens

Asset-backed tokens get their value from a claim on underlying assets. For example, commodities, fiat currency, or even digital assets such as cryptocurrencies.

These tokens may be fully or partially collateralized, and they serve various purposes, such as acting as stores of value or hedging instruments. However, unlike collectable tokens, which derive value from the ownership of unique goods, asset-backed tokens function more like financial instruments. Per a16z crypto, the “regulatory treatment of asset-backed tokens, however, depends on their structure and use.”

Examples include fiat-backed stablecoins like Circle’s USD Coin (USDC), liquidity provider tokens like Compound’s C-tokens, or derivative tokens like OPYN’s Squeeth.

Memecoins

And then, we’ve got memecoins – probably the most well-known ones. These are like the peak of internet chaos. They don’t really do anything useful and are mostly all about memes or whatever community hype is going on. Their fundamentals? Forget it. It’s all about speculation and whatever the market feels like, which means they’re super easy to manipulate or get rug-pulled.

Because of how wild they are, memecoins are “generally excluded from U.S. securities laws,” as a16z crypto says, noting though that they’re still “subject to anti-fraud and market manipulation laws.” What makes them stand out? They’ve got zero purpose or real use, and their prices can swing like crazy, which makes them pretty much a no-go for investment. Some famous ones include Pepe (PEPE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and the new Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin linked to U.S. President Donald Trump.