Bitcoin
Macro Guru Hugh Hendry Betting on Bitcoin (BTC) and Lower Interest Rates for 2025 – Here’s Why
Published
3 hours agoon
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adminHedge fund manager Hugh Hendry is betting on Bitcoin (BTC) and low interest rates next year.
Hendry says there “always two ever-present tail risks” in a short volatility investment strategy, which aims to profit off decreases in market volatility by selling options.
“Do you buy the call option that the Mag-7 become capitalized at 100% of GDP or that rates descend rapidly to the lower bound?
That’s why I keep hammering on about observing where stock levels are on the day of the next cut. I’m running a barbell: long BTC and long calls on <2% Fed Funds at year end 2025
I am of course exposed to a tracking error, that stocks surge and bitcoin is flat or down on some idiosyncratic news. I’m content to run that risk.”
Mag-7 refers to the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks: Alphabet (GOOGL; GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).
Hendry also compares Bitcoin’s size to the Invesco QQQ, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on the Nasdaq-100 Index.
“BTC is everyone’s phantom, good or bad. In reality, its MASS renders it irrelevant to this conversation but highly attractive for upside consideration. In the game of Newton’s Cradle, MASS is paramount today, it’s the outlier.
BTC’s capitalization is just $1 trillion. QQQ is $42 trillion. The Qs, or rather the $13 trillion in the Mag-7, are therefore the only consideration. Bank stock lending renders the robustness of that valuation paramount. If that melts, the credit unravels, the margin call is immense.
Perhaps doesn’t happen, but if I were a bank I’d be circumspect about the moneyness of that collateral. I’d be trying to contra-cyclically reduce my assets, markets and their liquidity permitting. By moneyness I mean the pledged assets’ proximity to a t-bill. Your t-bill ain’t gonna lose 83% of its value over the next 18 months.
Bur stocks capitalized at these vaunted levels vis-a-vis GDP have periodically suffered such reversals.”
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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Dips Below $61K, Ether (ETH) Slips 3% as PlusToken Coins Moved to Exchanges
Published
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October 9, 2024By
adminEarlier today, U.S. federal prosecutors charged crypto trading firms Gotbit, ZM Quant, CLS Global and MyTrade and their employees with market manipulation and fraud. Notably, a CoinDesk report in 2019 detailed how Alexey Andryunin, the co-founder of Gotbit and one of the individuals charged by prosecutors, built a business out of faking exchange volumes for tiny crypto tokens using trading bots to get listed on price aggregators like CoinMarketCap.
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24/7 Cryptocurrency News
Is Bitcoin Developer Peter Todd Satoshi Nakamoto? HBO Documentary Reveals
Published
1 day agoon
October 9, 2024By
adminA recent leak from the HBO documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery has ignited speculation around the identity of Bitcoin’s enigmatic creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. The clips that appeared on the social media platforms indicate that Peter Todd, a former Bitcoin Core developer, might be unmasked as the person behind the name.
Peter Todd Denies Claims of Satoshi Nakamoto
Peter Todd, a developer who has been involved in the development of the Bitcoin, has strongly claimed that he is not Nakamoto. Todd has been involved in the cryptocurrency industry since 2010 and has worked on the Bitcoin Core and has founded OpenTimestamps.
The leak is based on the videos posted on X (previously Twitter) by @theblockcitizen where Todd is seen apparently speaking about his involvement in the initial phase of Bitcoin.
As for what the drama is…
— Peter Todd (@peterktodd) October 8, 2024
In the documentary, Cullen Hoback reveals that Todd could be Bitcoin creator Nakamoto, based on the specific logs and posts from the Bitcoin forums. In a message obtained from Todd, Hoback said that Todd might have deleted the only way through which he could get to the 1.1 million Bitcoin, which he alleged belonged to Nakamoto. The Bitcoin developer, however, dismissed such allegations through a statement where he described the theory as absurd and accused Hoback of trying to seek an explanation wherever he could.
HBO Documentary Premiers Amid Controversy
In the run-up to the premiere, several fragments from the documentary were posted on the Internet, and people began to wonder what conclusions the film would make. In one of the most telling scenes, Hoback comes right out and tells Todd that he is Nakamoto.
Although Bitcoin developer Peter Todd is not the only person presumed to be Nakamoto, the leak of the documentary has brought attention to him. However, the majority of the members within the crypto community continue to dismiss the allegations and refute the claims as fake and baseless. Adam Back, who has also been speculated to be Nakamoto, has not come out to refute the opinions made in the documentary.
HBO Doc Leaks: Satoshi’s Everywhere.
IMDB just got rugged! Before Money Electric even drops, users flipped the script, labelling everyone in the cast as Satoshi Nakamoto.
Total meme move, pulling in the “We Are All Satoshi” vibes.
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s got bets stacking:… pic.twitter.com/j6oFHR6EeL
— Mario Nawfal’s Roundtable (@RoundtableSpace) October 9, 2024
Concurrently, on Polymarket people have placed their bets on different people who might be Satoshi Nakamoto. Prior to the leak, American computer scientist Nick Szabo and cryptographer Len Sassaman were widely considered leaders in the pack. However, as the leaks became more popular, the choice of “Other/multiple” has become a favorite one.
The documentary IMDb page also attracted attention when it was changed to include nearly every actor in the film as Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, which may be a nod to the “We Are All Satoshi” phenomenon that has been circulating in the crypto community. However, the page was later on reverted back to normal but this tactic only added more controversy to the documentary’s purpose.
Kelvin Munene Murithi
Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Bitaxe
I Just Entered the Bitcoin Mining Lottery: NIKOLAUS
Published
2 days agoon
October 8, 2024By
adminWhen I first came onto the Bitcoin scene in 2017, I had changed my Twitter (now X) handle to “@nikcantmine.” (It was a joke I thought was funny at the time since I didn’t have the resources to mine BTC in high school.) But today, I officially became “nik CAN mine”.
The other week I got gifted a Bitaxe, a fully open source (and very small) bitcoin miner, while attending the Human Rights Foundation’s Bitcoin Summit in Nashville. It’s a pretty neat device that allows you to connect to a mining pool or solo mine on your own.
nik CAN mine pic.twitter.com/Mv1OuTyvBM
— Nikolaus (@nikcantmine) October 8, 2024
Setting up the device was fairly easy. Tinkering with it was fun and having the ability to hold a miner in the palm of my hand felt pretty cypherpunk. It feels like a cool way to introduce someone to mining on a very small scale.
Of course, by connecting this miner to a pool, I wouldn’t stand to gain any real profit, as this miner is negligible compared to what power is actually needed today to profitably mine BTC today. But solo mining with this machine is where things get a bit interesting.
Earlier this summer, a Bitaxe solo miner actually beat the odds and mined a solo block, earning the block reward of 3.25 BTC currently worth over $205,000.
Congratulations to miner with the first bitaxe block, only a tiny 3TH for finding the 290th solo block on solo ckpool! This much hashrate only would find a block once every 3500 YEARS on average, or 1 in 1.2 MILLION chance per day! https://t.co/5Wtu9jydsF pic.twitter.com/D5sSzug42P
— Dr -ck (@ckpooldev) July 24, 2024
Data shows this miner had mined consistently with 500Gh/s worth of hashrate for weeks, and then had increased its hashrate up to 3TH right before the block was found. Which somewhat encourages me knowing that my Bitaxe is currently mining at over 634Gh/s.
But I’m not getting my hopes up, considering I don’t have more hashrate to add and the odds of finding a block with this little hash rate is around 1 in 1.2 million per day, according to the Solo Ckpool admin, Dr -ck.
Still, I got this machine for free, so I thought why not plug it in and see what happens? I’ll deal with the power bill later when I see how much it is, and re-evaluate if this is worth it to keep running. Having used it, I probably wouldn’t purchase one based on the economics of it alone, since I wouldn’t be able to make my money back unless I hit the lottery. But I would maybe purchase one just to have as a fun toy.
The odds of me finding a block is 0.001% per day, but it honestly just feels fun to have running in hopes of finding a solo block. I can keep my Bitaxe running 24/7 if I want to, since it only requires a 5-volt power cord plugged into a normal electrical socket to operate. I’ve got it set up right here on my desk next to my monitor.
Together with a new Coldcard Q I just got, I couldn’t stop thinking about how cool it would be to win a solo block mining with this and have that BTC reward sent to a brand new bitcoin wallet.
This would mean there is no public record of me receiving either the Bitaxe or Coldcard (apart from this article), and I’d have some sweet KYC-free Bitcoin.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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