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MSTR Could Be Eligible for S&P 500 Inclusion in June if BTC Closes Q1 Above $96K

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Disclaimer: The analyst who wrote this piece owns shares of Strategy (MSTR)

Strategy (MSTR) could be on track for potential S&P 500 inclusion by June 20.

Currently, the company meets all eligibility requirements except one: achieving positive GAAP net income over the trailing 12 months (the most recent four quarters combined). To qualify, Q1 2025 earnings must be high enough to offset losses from the previous three quarters—a goal that could be achieved thanks to the adoption (now mandatory) of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) digital asset accounting rule.

The FASB rule change requires companies to recognize bitcoin (BTC) holdings at fair value, meaning price gains will flow through to the bottom line (as would price declines). Prior to this rule, corporate digital asset holders were required to account for holdings at their weakest levels. Strategy, for example, in the fourth quarter of 2024 still valued its bitcoin at less than $16,000 per token, leading to a $1 billion impairment loss even as bitcoin closed the year at about $94,000.

Holy Grail

According to an analysis by Richard Hass on X, assuming Strategy holdings don’t change between now and March 31, bitcoin must close the first quarter above $96,337 for the company to meet the positive trailing 12-month earnings requirement. “Based on Q4 2024 earnings of -$671 million in net income MSTR requires $1.113B in Q1 2025 earnings to produce positive earnings in the prior four quarters and become eligible for S&P 500,” he wrote. “Based on MSTR’s current treasury of 478,740 BTC, the required BTC price on March 31 to achieve this is $96,337”. 

If bitcoin prices remain strong and MSTR continues accumulating tokens, S&P 500 inclusion is within reach. Said Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer:

“MSTR’s adoption of the amended FASB guidance strengthens its case for S&P 500 inclusion. Given its outperformance of every current index constituent over four years, exclusion would be surprising.”

“While joining the Nasdaq-100 was significant, the S&P 500 is the holy grail,” continued Palmer.” Inclusion would validate its Bitcoin strategy, as all S&P 500 index funds would hold MSTR shares, indirectly exposing investors to Bitcoin.”

Disclaimer: Richard Hass’s original X post was made before Strategy’s latest bitcoin purchase. CoinDesk reached out for updated analysis, including Monday’s acquisition.





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Monero’s XMR Rockets 40% as XRP Leads Crypto Majors Gains

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Shaurya is the Co-Leader of the CoinDesk tokens and data team in Asia with a focus on crypto derivatives, DeFi, market microstructure, and protocol analysis.

Shaurya holds over $1,000 in BTC, ETH, SOL, AVAX, SUSHI, CRV, NEAR, YFI, YFII, SHIB, DOGE, USDT, USDC, BNB, MANA, MLN, LINK, XMR, ALGO, VET, CAKE, AAVE, COMP, ROOK, TRX, SNX, RUNE, FTM, ZIL, KSM, ENJ, CKB, JOE, GHST, PERP, BTRFLY, OHM, BANANA, ROME, BURGER, SPIRIT, and ORCA.

He provides over $1,000 to liquidity pools on Compound, Curve, SushiSwap, PancakeSwap, BurgerSwap, Orca, AnySwap, SpiritSwap, Rook Protocol, Yearn Finance, Synthetix, Harvest, Redacted Cartel, OlympusDAO, Rome, Trader Joe, and SUN.





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Expert Reveals Why The Ethereum-To-Bitcoin Ratio Is Falling

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The Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio has fallen to its lowest level in five years after a dismal Ethereum price performance. As investors try to wrap their heads around the grim metric, Taproot Wizards co-founder Eric Wall has explained the reason behind the steep drop.

Eric Wall Highlights Reasons For ETH/BTC Ratio Collapse

Taproot Wizards co-founder Eric Wall has identified a raft of reasons behind the decline of the ETH/BTC ratio in 2025. The cryptocurrency expert revealed the factors behind the falling ETH/BTC ratio in an X post, hinging the bulk of the blame on Ethereum’s recent price performance.

The ETH/BTC ratio slumped to a five-year low after Ethereum bucked the trend of following Bitcoin on a rally after the halving event. While Bitcoin price rose to cross the $100K mark, Ethereum price has tumbled below $2,000 to reach lows of $1,400.

For Wall, one factor affecting the ETH/BTC ratio appears to be Ethereum’s position in a competitive landscape. Since its launch, several blockchains have cropped up to snag market share from the largest altcoin, offering cheaper fees and faster processing times.

The cryptocurrency expert argues that the absence of a Saylor-like buyer for ETH is playing its role in the decline of the ETH/BTC ratio. Michael Saylor’s BTC purchases have contributed to the asset’s performance, but Wall argues that Ethereum does not have a consistent buyer.

Wall adds that Bitcoin and gold have evolved into wartime assets in the current macroeconomic climate, while ETH is considered a “peacetime asset.” Gold has surged to new highs, sparking optimism that Bitcoin will follow in the same path for a similar rally, while the Ethereum price continues its unimpressive run.

The Merge Is Not Responsible For The Ratio Decline

Eric Wall notes that Ethereum’s Merge event is not responsible for the ETH/BTC slump, contrary to popular sentiment. Ethereum migrated from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake in 2022, with the ETH/BTC ratio tanking since the Merge.

“The ETHBTC ratio did not go down because of The Merge,” said Eric Wall.

However, pseudonymous cryptocurrency analyst Beanie argues that the Merge is the primary reason for the price decline. Rebuffing the speculation, Wall opines that Ethereum’s layer 2 tokens triggered network fragmentation after botching the “asset value capture narrative,” affecting the ETH/BTC ratio.

“Ethereum also stagnated into a depressingly small number of defi primitives relative to what past expectations were,” added Wall.

Ethereum is flashing signs of brilliance after ETH trading volume spiked to $17.5 billion in less than a day. ETH prices are exchanging hands at nearly 1,800 after an impressive 12% rally that saw it outperform SOL and XRP

 

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Aliyu Pokima

Aliyu Pokima is a seasoned cryptocurrency and emerging technologies journalist with a knack for covering needle-moving stories in the space. Aliyu delivers breaking news stories, regulatory updates, and insightful analysis with depth and precision. When he’s not poring over charts or following leads, Aliyu enjoys playing the bass guitar, lifting weights and running marathons.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Tariff Carnage Starting to Fulfill BTC’s ‘Store of Value’ Promise

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April has been a month of extreme volatility and tumultuous times for traders.

From conflicting headlines about President Donald Trump’s tariffs against other nations to total confusion about which assets to seek shelter in, it has been one for the record books.

Amid all the confusion, when traditional “haven assets” failed to act as safe places to park money, one bright spot emerged that might have surprised some market participants: bitcoin.

“Historically, cash (the US dollar), bonds (US Treasuries), the Swiss Franc, and gold have fulfilled that role [safe haven], with bitcoin edging in on some of that territory,” said NYDIG Research in a note.

Safe haven asset performance (NYDIG Research)

Safe haven asset performance (NYDIG Research)

NYDIG’s data showed that while gold and Swiss Franc had been consistent safe-haven winners, since ‘Liberation Day’—when President Trump announced sweeping tariff hikes on April 2, kicking off extreme volatility in the market—bitcoin has been added to the list.

“Bitcoin has acted less like a liquid levered version of levered US equity beta and more like the non-sovereign issued store of value that it is,” NYDIG wrote.

Zooming out, it seems that as the “sell America” trade gains momentum, investors are taking notice of bitcoin and the original promise of the biggest cryptocurrency.

“Though the connection is still tentative, bitcoin appears to be fulfilling its original promise as a non-sovereign store of value, designed to thrive in times like these,” NYDIG added.

Read more: Gold and Bonds’ Safe Haven Allure May be Fading With Bitcoin Emergence





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