Markets

Mt. Gox Moves $2.2 Billion in Bitcoin Following Repayment Timeline Extension

Published

2 hours ago

November 5, 2024

Mt. Gox moved another $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin on Monday amid an extended period of volatility that has seen the crypto oscillating between $73,000 and $65,000 over the past few weeks.

The defunct crypto exchange’s recent transfer was identified through wallets tracked by blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence, which disclosed the movement of 32,371 BTC, with the majority—30,371 BTC—directed to wallet address “1FG2C…Rveoy.”

An additional 2,000 BTC was initially moved to a Mt. Gox cold wallet before being transferred to a separate unmarked wallet, Arkham data shows.

It comes as Bitcoin briefly slid below $68,000 during Asian market trading, recording a 1% decline over 24 hours. The asset has since clawed back losses, trading at $68,700.

Market analysts anticipate heightened volatility this week, projecting potential price swings of up to $8,000 as U.S. election activities add to market uncertainty.

Monday’s significant movement also follows a smaller transfer of 500 BTC to two unidentified wallets in late September, which marked the exchange’s first activity since that period.

These transfers historically precede distributions to creditors through established crypto exchanges, including Bitstamp and Kraken.

Notably, the timing of this latest transfer coincides with Mt. Gox’s recent announcement that it is extending its repayment deadline by one year.

This extension affects thousands of creditors who lost assets during the exchange’s 2014 security breach, which resulted in the theft of approximately 850,000 BTC—valued at over $15 billion at current market prices.

Mt. Gox’s historical significance in the crypto industry ecosystem adds weight to these movements as well.

Founded in 2010, the exchange once dominated Bitcoin trading, handling over 70% of global transactions before its collapse after a series of hacks between 2011 and 2014.

The security breach marked one of the industry’s most significant setbacks, leading to years of legal proceedings and recovery efforts.

In any case, the repayment process represents one of the cryptocurrency industry’s longest-running recovery efforts, with implications extending beyond immediate market dynamics.

While short-term volatility is expected, the market’s maturity since Mt. Gox’s 2014 collapse may help buffer against dramatic price swings, with Bitcoin often displaying resilience against such events.

Edited by Sebastian Sinclair

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Bitcoin

Donald Trump’s Sliding Victory Odds Hit Bitcoin Price (BTC)

Published

2 days ago

November 3, 2024

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Since, though, Trump’s odds have been falling, as has the price of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. At one point overnight, the former president’s victory chances declined to less than 53% (with Harris rising to above 47%). Alongside, bitcoin fell to as low as $67,600. At press time, during the U.S. morning hours Sunday, both Trump and bitcoin have come back a bit, with Trump sitting at 56% and bitcoin at $68,300, lower by more than 2% over the past 24 hours.

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Bitcoin

Crypto Reverses Early Gains, Bitcoin Dives Back to $69K

Published

3 days ago

November 2, 2024

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Prices had rallied early in U.S. trading on Friday alongside a soft economic data and a rebound in stocks.

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Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Mathematically Forecasting Peak Bitcoin Price For The Next Bull Cycle

Published

3 days ago

November 2, 2024

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With years of historical data, we can observe the patterns from past bull cycles to become increasingly capable of making predictions about our current cycle. In this analysis, we take a deep dive into when the next Bitcoin peak may occur and at what price level.

The Pi Cycle

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is one of our most popular tools for analyzing Bitcoin’s cycles. This indicator monitors the 111-day and 350-day (multiplied by 2) moving averages, and when these two lines cross, it has historically been a reliable sign of Bitcoin reaching a cycle peak, typically within just a few days. After multiple months of these two levels drifting apart due to the sideways price action, we’ve just begun to see the 111-day trending back up again to begin closing the gap.

*Figure 1: Pi Cycle Top Indicator 111DMA has begun trending upward.* **View Live Chart 🔍**

We can measure the difference between the two averages to better define Bitcoin’s position within bull and bear cycles with the Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Indicator. This oscillator trending up again hints that Bitcoin’s next bull run may be just around the corner, with parallels to previous cycles seen in 2016 and 2020.

*Figure 2: Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Indicator ending its downtrend.* **View Live Chart 🔍**

Previous Bitcoin Cycles

Historically, Bitcoin’s bull cycles exhibit similar phases: initial rapid growth, a cooling-off period, a second peak, and finally, a significant retracement followed by a new surge.

2016 Cycle: This cycle saw a first peak, a dip, a second peak, and then a full-blown bull market. It’s very similar to the trend we’re currently seeing. Bitcoin’s price reached new highs after these two retracements.

2020-2021 Cycle: The pattern was slightly less pronounced, but a similar trajectory was observed. Bitcoin’s price peaked twice, once during the initial surge and again at the peak of the bull run as BTC was reaching an all-time.

Using the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we can simulate different growth scenarios based on past cycles. Since the Pi Cycle Top and Bottom oscillator recently turned upward we can overlay the rate of change in the oscillator from the previous cycles to see potential route this cycle.

*Figure 3: Oscillator and 111DMA projections based on historical rates of change.*

If the 2021 cycle repeats, the 111-day and 350-day moving averages may cross around June 29, 2025, signaling a potential Bitcoin peak. If the 2017 cycle is mirrored, the moving averages might not cross until January 28, 2026, suggesting a later peak.

Price Projections

Using these dates, we can also attempt to estimate potential price levels. Historically, Bitcoin’s price exceeded the moving averages significantly at its peak. During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin’s price was three times the value of these moving averages at the peak. However, as the market matures, we’ve seen diminishing returns in each cycle, meaning Bitcoin’s price might not increase as dramatically compared to its moving averages as it has historically.

*Figure 4: Potential targets for BTC this cycle based on previous cycle projections.*

If Bitcoin follows a pattern similar to the 2021 cycle, with an increase of about 40% above its moving averages, this would place Bitcoin’s peak at approximately $339,000. Assuming diminishing returns, Bitcoin’s price might only rise about 20% above the moving averages. In this case, the peak price would be closer to $200,000 by mid-2025.

Similarly, if the 2017 extended cycle repeats with diminishing returns, Bitcoin could peak at $466,000 in early 2026, while a more moderate increase might result in a peak price of around $388,000. Although it’s unlikely Bitcoin will hit one million dollars in this cycle, these more tempered projections could still represent substantial gains.

Conclusion

While these projections use well-established data, they’re not guarantees. Every cycle has its unique dynamics influenced by economic conditions, investor sentiment, and regulatory changes. Diminishing returns and potentially even lengthening cycles are likely, reflecting the maturation of Bitcoin’s market.

As Bitcoin’s bull cycle continues to develop, these predictive tools could provide increasingly accurate insights, particularly as the data evolves. However, analysis such as this provides potential outcomes to assist in your risk management and prepare for every outcome.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Mathematically Predicting The Next Bitcoin All Time High

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