It was another up-and-down week for Bitcoin, after news from the central bank sent the biggest cryptocurrency up, then back down again. And we’ve basically landed right back where we started.

Right now, Bitcoin’s price now stands at $84,150 per coin after not budging over a seven-day period, according to CoinGecko data. It’s up 0.2% on the day, but totally flat on the week.

The asset jumped briefly after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters Wednesday that everything was under control and that President Trump’s tariffs would have a “transitory” effect on inflation.

Bitcoin had been dipping—just like stocks—whenever President Trump abruptly announced tariffs over the past month. But investors seemed to like the news from Powell.

ETF action

American Bitcoin investors had been fast cashing out of Bitcoin ETFs earlier this month, but that all changed this week, Farside Investors data shows.

Every day this week, money has flooded back into the new vehicles, with over half a billion entering the funds by Wednesday. About $734 million worth of funds reentered Bitcoin ETFs this week as investor sentiment has changed as speculators expect interest rates to lower this year.

Note that the positive sentiment hasn’t extended to all crypto ETFs, as Ethereum funds are collectively nursing a now 13-day losing streak (including Friday’s fresh data)—even as Bitcoin funds show green over the last six days.

Choppy waters here to stay

Still, investors could still be in for a bumpy ride as data shows that Bitcoin’s volatility is at a six-month high due, as worries about the U.S. economy and geopolitical tensions push people to adopt a more “risk-off” mindset.

Amberdata Director of Derivatives Greg Magadini told Decrypt that volatility—in the short-term, at least—was likely here to stay.

SEC continues to clean up ‘mess’

And the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which said it would put right the previous administration’s “mess” by being clearer on rules for the digital asset industry, made a statement that applies to Bitcoin mining: proof-of-work mining operations do not need to register their actions as they “do not involve the offer and sale of securities.”

According to the regulator, as a miner’s “expectation to receive rewards is not derived from any third party’s managerial or entrepreneurial efforts upon which the network’s success depends,” the activity does not come under the SEC’s jurisdiction.

Under crypto-friendly President Donald Trump, the regulator appears to be adopting a more relaxed approach to the space, and and has already scrapped a number of lawsuits and investigations targeting firms in the space.

BlackRock talks Bitcoin

Meanwhile, BlackRock—the world’s biggest asset manager—has tried to clear the air about Bitcoin… again. In an interview with CNBC‘s Squawk Box, the firm’s Digital Asset Head Robert Mitchnick said that calling the biggest cryptocurrency by market cap a “risk-on” asset was not exactly accurate.

“What we’ve seen lately seems to be self-fulfilling and actually a self-inflicted wound by some of the research and commentary that the industry does, leaning into this idea of it as a risk-on asset at times,” Mitchnick said.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has been one of the most successful BTC ETFs since its launch last January. Is the Wall Street giant trying to get more clients for its fund?

Edited by Andrew Hayward

It turns out Polymarket is a crystal ball, which can predict certain events with nearly 90% accuracy, according to a Dune dashboard compiled by New York City-based data scientist Alex McCullough.

McCullough studied Polymarket’s historical data and removed markets with probabilities above 90% or below 10% after outcomes were already known but not yet settled, to keep the analysis accurate, according to a Dune dashboard summary.

Polymarket slightly but consistently overestimates event probabilities across most ranges, potentially due to biases like acquiescence bias, herd mentality, low liquidity, and participant preference for high-risk bets, McCullough’s research found.

Longer-term markets, ones that ask bettors to consider an event far-out, look more accurate because they include many outcomes that are clearly unlikely, making predictions easier, McCullough explained in an interview with Polymarket’s The Oracle blog.

McCullough gives the example of Gavin Newsom becoming president (a question with $54 million in volume) during the last election to show that longer-term Polymarket markets often include obviously predictable outcomes, like Newsom clearly not winning, which boosts the platform’s accuracy numbers for these long-term predictions.

In contrast, head-to-head sports markets, which have fewer extreme outcomes such as long-shot presidential candidates, and a more balanced distribution, present a clearer representation of predictive accuracy, McCullough found, showing notable improvements in accuracy as events unfold and revealing periodic accuracy spikes.

Sports is a growing sector for Polymarket, with nearly $4.5 billion in collective volume wagered on the outcomes of the NBA, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League finals, according to data portal Polymarket Analytics.

McCullough’s findings about the accuracy of Polymarket are likely to be of interest in Ottawa, where Polymarket shows that new Liberal Party of Canada leader Mark Carney now has a significant lead over his Conservative rival Pierre Poilievre, even more than what poll aggregators are showing.