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Polymarket Faces French Ban After Massive Bets On US Election Results

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Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, is likely to be prohibited by France’s gambling regulator, the ANJ, after a huge amount of bets were placed on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Since the global audience engaged in prediction platforms, Polymarket experienced a record jump, with $450 million expected to be distributed to users following the victory of Donald Trump.

This increase of betting volume and large stakes has become a matter of concern for the French regulator because the platform offers unlicensed gambling services.

$450 Million in Payouts Expected After U.S. Election Bets

Prediction markets, which are expected to increase their payout to election bettors to around $450m following Donald Trump’s projected win, are attracting increasing attention. 

Although conventional polls pointed to a closer contest, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi recorded a steep rise in Trump’s chances in the last few days, indicating a strong divergence with poll-based expectations.

Among the active users of Polymarket, a French trader called “Theo” made a $26 million bet on Trump’s win and won $49 million. This big bet made Polymarket popular, as the French authorities paid attention to the platform and its popularity among French residents, which led to concerns about the compliance of the platform with French gambling legislation.

France’s ANJ Considers Blocking Access to Polymarket

The ANJ has claimed that Polymarket is involved in gambling which is only allowed in France by licensed operators. According to local media, the regulator has the power to ban access to unlicensed gambling sites and is expected to restrict access to Polymarket soon. 

An ANJ insider said: “Polymarket is just betting on something that is completely uncertain, which is exactly what gambling is.”

If put in place, the ban would prevent the usage of the application in France, despite the fact that users can still try to avoid the restriction by connecting to VPN. The ANJ could also try to influence media outlets and directories to stop advertising or linking to Polymarket and, thus, limit its audiences even more.

Regulatory Concerns Over Market Manipulation

The high level of activity on Polymarket has led to speculations that the platform may be used for market manipulation. Two blockchain analysis firms, Chaos Labs and Inca Digital, recently revealed that there was potential wash trading within Polymarket’s U.S. presidential betting market where the same assets are bought and sold to simply create a fake market. This type of trading is rather manipulative and can lead to the distortion of signals on the market and mislead other participants.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission also has concerns about prediction markets and put forward a rule in May aiming at stricter regulation of such markets due to the potential for manipulation.

Although no final decision has been reached, regulatory actions could impact Polymarket’s ability to operate freely in other markets, including the U.S.

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Kelvin Munene Murithi

Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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BTC Rebounds Ahead of FOMC, Macro Heat Over?

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The crypto market concluded yet another week, primarily sparking investor optimism with recovering price trajectories. Bitcoin (BTC) price recovered from a $76K low to reach $84K right ahead of the U.S. FOMC next week. Whereas, major-league altcoins also mimicked price gains. The global cryptocurrency market cap again embarked upon a trajectory towards the $3 trillion mark as the week comes to an end.

Mentioned below are some of the top crypto market updates reported by CoinGape Media over the past week.

Crypto Market: Bitcoin Advancements This Week

The flagship crypto has witnessed significant developments over the past seven days, keeping investors optimistic despite price turbulence. Notably, global financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald launched a $2 billion Bitcoin financing business, partnering with Anchorage Digital and Copper for secure institutional access.

On the other hand, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest expanded its Bitcoin holdings, accumulating 997 BTC worth $80 million via Coinbase this week.

Also, despite the recent market turmoil, 95% of investors in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to hold onto their holdings. As a result, market watchers continue weighing optimism over long-term price prospects.

It’s also noteworthy that the Singapore Exchange (SGX) is planning to launch Bitcoin futures contracts shortly ahead.

Moreover, Deutsche Boerse’s post-trade unit Clearstream plans to launch Bitcoin & Ethereum custody services by the end of this year. Mentioned above are the top crypto market updates orbiting Bitcoin over the past week.

Are Prices Bracing For Macro Events?

Meanwhile, the broader market shows a recovery-like trend ahead of the U.S. FOMC next week. Set to occur on March 19, the monetary policymaking decision remains much eyed by investors globally.

Market-wide expectations of unchanged interest rates by the U.S. Fed prevail at the moment. Also, the latest U.S. CPI data indicated cooling inflation, offering some support to risk assets. In turn, traders and investors speculate whether a price recovery is possible after the turmoil caused by Donald Trump’s tariff saga.

Global markets, including crypto, took severe heat previously, although recent price actions signal that a recovery and bull cycle continuation might be on the horizon.

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Coingape Staff

CoinGape comprises an experienced team of native content writers and editors working round the clock to cover news globally and present news as a fact rather than an opinion. CoinGape writers and reporters contributed to this article.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Solana Cofounder Advocates For Decisive Governance As SIMD-228 Proposal Fails

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Following the failed bid of a proposal to change network tokenomics, Solana cofounder Anatoly Yakovenko has reiterated the need for decisive governance. Yakovenko argues that failing fast will do more for Solana than a slew of proposal approvals.

Solana Governance Has To Prioritize Speed And Incisiveness

Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko has moved on from the community’s rejection of the Solana Improvement Document (SIMD)-0228. Yakovenko noted that despite the failed proposal, the speed of governance proceedings for Solana left an impressive mark.

The SIMD-0228 sought to change Solana’s tokenomics by introducing a dynamic inflation model, moving away from the network’s fixed inflation schedule. While the proposal split the network over centralization fears and disadvantages to smaller validators, Yakovenko highlighted the silver lining in its rejection.

Learning from the proposal, the Solana cofounder disclosed that the network’s governance must be “fast and decisive.” For Yakovenko, the quick resolution of the proposal frees up resources for the network to explore a better approach.

“How fast the ecosystem iterates is a thousand times more important than making sure that every proposal passes,” said Yakovenko.

Over 74% of validators participated in the vote with Yakovenko declaring support for the proposal. Big ecosystem players including VanEck supported the proposal amid speculation that Solana price will spike following the approval.

Bulls Eye Upward Movement For SOL Price

Despite the rejection of the proposal, bulls are still clinging to hope that SOL can go on a parabolic rally. The network has faced significant downward pressure in recent weeks, complicated by Alameda’s SOL unstaking. A steep drop in Solana DEX volume darkens the cloud for the future of the asset’s price.

However, analysts are keeping their eyes on the potential repeat of a 2021 pattern that can send SOL price to $4,000. There is speculation that Solana is on course to surpass Ethereum’s market capitalization.

Optimist are hinging their prediction on on-chain metrics and the soaring number of projects building on the network. In the short term, traders have their eyes on SOL to $200 before the end of March despite a looming death cross.

 

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Aliyu Pokima

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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21Shares To Liquidate Bitcoin and Ethereum Futures ETFs, Here’s All

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21Shares has announced that it is bringing down the curtain on its Bitcoin and Ethereum futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The issuer is eyeing March 28 as a tentative date for the liquidation of both ETFs amid a wave of new filings in the US.

21Shares Set To Liquidate Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

According to an announcement, crypto ETF issuer 21Shares has disclosed plans to ditch its Bitcoin and Ethereum futures ETFs. Per the announcement, the affected ETFs are the ARK 21Shares Active Bitcoin Ethereum Strategy ETF and the ARK 21Shares Active On-Chain Bitcoin Strategy ETF.

While the press release did not give clear reasons for the liquidations, it hinged its decision on a periodic review of its offerings. The statement cited a need to align existing product lineups with market dynamics and clients’ needs in a changing landscape.

However, pundits say the liquidations are a result of jarring ETF outflows in recent months.

Shareholders can sell their holdings up until March 27, a date touted as the last trading day for both ETFs. 21Shares plans to put the final nail in the coffin for both ETFs on March 28, liquidating all remaining assets.

“Shareholders who continue to hold shares of a Fund on the Fund’s Liquidation Date will receive a liquidating distribution with a value equal to their proportionate ownership interest in the Fund,” read the press release.

Increased ETF Activity In The Cryptoverse

Despite the wave of outflows, the ETF space is sizzling with frenetic activity. Buoyed by impressive returns, 21Shares slashed fees to 0.49% for its Bitcoin Ethereum Core ETPs.

Bitwise has rolled out its OWNB ETF to track companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. Bitcoin ETF investors continue to put their faith in offerings in the face of price amid Rex Shares launching the first Bitcoin Corporate Bond Convertible ETF

Outside of Bitcoin, several issuers have filed for XRP, HBAR, DOGE, and AVAX ETFs with the US SEC. For Ethereum investors, CBOE has applied to the SEC to approve staking in Fidelity’s ETH ETF.

 

 

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Aliyu Pokima

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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