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Solana price is falling, but shorting it is risky, crypto analyst says

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Solana price has fallen for two consecutive days, dropping 7.8% from its highest level this week.

Solana (SOL), the fourth-largest cryptocurrency, fell to $207 on Nov. 13, down from this week’s high of $225.

Its retreat mirrored that of Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and Cardano (ADA).

Despite the sell-off, one analyst believes it is too risky for traders to short SOL at the current prices. In an X post, Kingpin Crypto, an analyst with over 27,000 followers, warned that shorting the coin could be risky. He cited the fact that Solana was breaking out of an eight-month trading range.

Additionally, Solana maintains solid fundamentals as it has become a major player in the crypto industry. For example, it has become the blockchain of choice for developers who are building meme coins.

According to CoinGecko, the total market cap of all Solana meme coins has jumped to over $17.8 billion. Dogwifhat has a market cap of $3 billion, while Bonk, Peanut the Squirrel, and Popcat each have valuations of over $1 billion.

Solana has also overtaken Justin Sun’s Tron to become the second-largest chain in the decentralized finance industry. Its total value locked has jumped to over $7.58 billion, with the biggest players in the network being Jito, Kamino, Jupiter, and Raydium.

After dominating Ethereum in DEX volume in October, Solana is repeating the same trend this month. Its volume has risen by 91% in the last seven days to $24.55 billion, mostly due to several trending Solana meme coins like Department of Government Efficiency and Happy Coin. 

Solana price to form break and retest before roaring back

Cardano price
Solana price chart | Source: crypto.news

The daily chart shows that the SOL price has pulled back after soaring to $225 on Tuesday. It has remained above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is a bullish sign. Also, the MVRVZ indicator has moved sideways after rising to its highest level since March.

Most importantly, there are signs that Solana is about to form a break and retest pattern by moving to the key support at $193, its highest level on June 29. A break and retest happens when an asset rallies above a key level, retests it, and then resumes the bullish trend. If this is correct, there are high chances that Solana will rebound and retest $250 in the near term.



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BitLayer

BitVM Just Got A Massive Upgrade

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The introduction of BitVM smart contracts has marked a significant milestone in the path for scalability and programmability of Bitcoin. Rooted in the original BitVM protocol, Bitlayer’s Finality Bridge introduces the first version of the protocol live on testnet, which is a good starting point for realizing the promises of the Bitcoin Renaissance or “Season 2”.

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Unlike earlier BTC bridges that often required reliance on centralized entities or questionable trust assumptions, the Finality Bridge leverages a blend of BitVM smart contracts, fraud proofs, and zero-knowledge proofs. This combination not only enhances security but also significantly reduces the need for trust in third parties. We’re not at the trustless level that Lightning provides, but this is a million times better than current sidechains designs claiming to be Bitcoin Layers 2s (in addition to significantly increasing the design space for Bitcoin applications).

The system operates on a principle where funds are securely locked in addresses governed by a BitVM smart contract, functioning under the premise that at least one participant in the system will act honestly. This setup inherently reduces the trust requirements but has to introduce additional complexities that Bitlayer aims to manage with this version of the bridge.

Source: https://blog.bitlayer.org/introducing_finality_bridge/

The Mechanics of Trust

In practical terms, when Bitcoin is locked into the BitVM smart contract through the Finality Bridge, users are issued YBTC – a token that maintains a strict 1:1 peg with Bitcoin. This peg is not just a promise but is enforced by the underlying smart contract logic, ensuring that each YBTC represents a real, locked Bitcoin on the main chain (no fake “restacked” BTC metrics). This mechanism allows users to participate in DeFi activities like lending, borrowing, and yield farming within the Bitlayer ecosystem without compromising on the security and settlement assurances that Bitcoin provides.

While some in the community might find these activities objectionable, this type of architecture allows users to get some guarantees that they previously could not hope to get with traditional sidechain designs, with the added bonus that we do not need to “change” Bitcoin to make it happen (although covenants would make this bridge design completely “trust-minimized, which would effectively make it a “True” Bitcoin Layer 2). For more details about the different levels of risks associated with sidechains designs, take a look at Bitcoin Layers assessment of Bitlayer here.

However, until such advancements come to fruition, the Bitlayer Finality Bridge serves as the best realization of the BitVM 2 paradigm. It’s a testament to what’s possible after the dev “brain drain” from centralized chains back to Bitcoin. Despite all the challenges that BitVM chains will face, I remain exceptionally excited at the prospect of Bitcoin fulfilling its destiny as the Ultimate Settlement Chain for all economic activity.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Guillaume’s articles in particular may discuss topics or companies that are part of his firm’s investment portfolio (UTXO Management). The views expressed are solely his own and do not represent the opinions of his employer or its affiliates. He’s receiving no financial compensation for these Takes. Readers should not consider this content as financial advice or an endorsement of any particular company or investment. Always do your own research before making financial decisions. 



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Top cryptocurrencies to watch this week: Mantra, Optimism, Sui

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Some of the top cryptocurrencies to watch this week will be Mantra, Sui, and Optimism.

Why? The cryptocurrency market saw Mantra (OM) reach a new record high Sunday, while Optimism (OP) plans a $53 million token unlock. Sui (SUI), currently on a bearish trajectory, is set to unlock $138 million in tokens this week.

Read on for a more detailed look at the technicals and what the trajectory of each token shows.

Mantra: The top crypto project in the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization industry jumped to a record high of $5.08. That rebound was in line with our recent OM price prediction

Mantra soared because of the recent call by BlackRock’s CEO for regulators to approve the tokenization of stocks and bonds. It also reached a deal to tokenize DAMAC’s real estate projects in Dubai.

The daily chart reveals that the Mantra price has formed a bullish flag chart pattern, a popular continuation sign. This pattern comprises a long vertical line and a rectangle pattern, and is then followed by a bullish breakout. 

Mantra’s flag pole is at least 156% tall. As such, measuring the same distance from $4.53 means the coin is expected to rise to $11 in the long term. 

Mantra price
Mantra price chart | Source: crypto.news

Optimism: The third-biggest layer-2 network prepares to unlock tokens worth over $53 million or 1.48% of the float. It now has over 1.35 billion tokens in circulation against a total supply of 4.29 billion.

Optimism’s unlock comes when the token has been under pressure in the past few months. It has dropped to a low of $1.6295, down by 40.7% from its highest level in November. 

Optimism is hovering at the key support at $1.6076, where it failed to move below since Dec. 20. It has also formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Therefore, a break below that level will likely point to more downside, potentially to $1.30, its lowest swing in November last year.

Optimism price
Optimism price chart | Source: crypto.news

Sui: Like Optimism, Sui will also have a big unlock worth $138 million or 1.1% of the float on Thursday. Only 37% of all SUI tokens have been unlocked, with the final one expected to happen in 2069.

Sui’s token unlock comes when it is in a technical bear market after falling 22% from its highest level this year. It has moved below the lower side of the ascending channel. 

The coin has moved below the 50-day moving average, while the Relative Strength Index and the MACD have continued falling. Therefore, the coin will likely continue falling, with the next point to watch being at $2.9415, its lowest point on Nov. 26.

Top cryptocurrencies to watch this week: Mantra, Optimism, Sui - 1
Sui price chart | Source: crypto.news

The other top coins to watch this week will be Pi Network, Ethereum, and dYdX.

Pi Network’s know-your-customer verification deadline will end on Jan. 31. Ethereum will be in the spotlight as the market watches the controversy with the Ethereum Foundation.

DYdX will unlock tokens worth $9.6 million on Wednesday.



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Sony’s Layer-2 Blockchain “Soneium” Goes Live

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Sony, the 78-year-old Japanese electronics giant, is the latest legacy megacorp to explore blockchain technology. On Tuesday, the company announced that it is officially launching “Soneum,” a general-purpose blockchain platform.

The team behind Sony Block Solutions Labs (SBSL), a joint project between Sony Group and Singapore-based Startale Labs, describes Soneuim — technically a layer-2 network atop Ethereum — as “a versatile general-purpose blockchain platform” built to support a diverse ecosystem of gaming, finance and entertainment apps. According to SBSL, the launch comes after a four month-long test period that involved participation from 14 million wallets.

Sony’s network is yet more evidence that traditional technology companies might again be keen on blockchain’s ability to connect and commercialize the future of media. The chain is aimed towards “bridging the gap between web2 and web3 audiences, especially for the creators, fans and community,” SBSL said in a statement shared with CoinDesk. “The platform prioritizes user-centric design, simplifying blockchain interactions and evolving web3 from a niche hobby into an everyday experience.”

The team tapped Optimism’s OP Stack to build out their network — a customizable framework that lets developers use optimistic rollup technology to transact on Ethereum quickly and at a low cost.

Other companies using the OP Stack include the U.S. crypto exchanges Coinbase and Kraken, which use the tech to power their popular Base and Ink networks. Uniswap, the leading decentralized exchange, and Worldcoin, the Sam Altman-founded digital passport, also use OP Stack to power their layer-2 blockchain networks.

In many cases, the Optimism Foundation, which stewards the development of the OP Stack, has awarded grants to companies that agreed to use its tech. SBSL declined to comment on how many OP tokens they would receive as part of this deal, though previous reporting indicates that Optimism’s grants can be substantial.

In August 2023, Coinbase received up to 118 million OP tokens — worth $182 million at the time, or $192 million at today’s prices — to use OP Stack for Base chain. CoinDesk also reported that Kraken received up to 25 million OP tokens, worth roughly $100 million, when it agreed to use the OP Stack in January 2024 (now worth $42 million).

Similar grants are doled out by Optimism competitors like Polygon and Arbitrum, each of whom is dueling to build its own interconnected web of blockchains.

Read more: Sony, Electronics Pioneer Behind Walkman, Starts Own Blockchain ‘Soneium’





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