Bitcoin miners are sending a clear message: they’re more bullish than ever. As we observe new all-time highs in the Bitcoin network’s hash rate, the commitment of miners underscores their confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.

The Hash Ribbons Indicator Explained

The Hash Ribbons indicator provides insight into miner activity and sentiment by analyzing the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s hash rate. When the 30-day moving average crosses above the 60-day, it suggests a positive shift, often interpreted as miner capitulation coming to an end. This shift typically signals that weaker miners have exited the market, leaving only resilient participants and setting the stage for potential price recovery.

Why All-Time Highs in Hash Rate Matter

As the Bitcoin network’s hash rate climbs to new peaks, it highlights the increasing amount of computational power devoted to securing the blockchain. This rise not only reflects strong miner confidence but also enhances the network’s resilience and security. In the current climate, these hash rate highs indicate that miners are holding their ground, undeterred by market fluctuations.

Interpreting the Current Hash Ribbon Signal

The chart above shows a recent bullish crossover in the Hash Ribbons, indicating the end of miner capitulation. Historically, these crossovers have often aligned with favorable price action in the weeks and months that follow. With hash rate reaching unprecedented levels, this crossover suggests that miners anticipate a period of sustained growth.

For an in-depth look at the Hash Ribbons Indicator and to stay updated with future movements, visit the source here: Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Bitcoin has historically followed a familiar four-year cycle. Now, two years into the current cycle, investors are closely watching patterns and market indicators for insights into what the next two years may hold. This article dives into the anatomy of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, past market behavior, and future possibilities.

The 4 Year Cycle

Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is partly influenced by the scheduled halving events, which reduce the block reward miners receive by 50% every four years. This halving decreases the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, often creating supply-demand pressures that can push prices higher.

This can be clearly visualized by the Stock-to-Flow Model, which compares the existing BTC in circulation to its inflationary rate, and models a ‘fair-value’ based on comparable hard assets such as Gold and Silver.

Currently, we’re midway through this cycle, meaning we are potentially entering a period of exponential gains as the typical one year catch-up phase following the halving progresses.

A Look Back at 2022

Two years ago, Bitcoin faced a severe crash amid a series of corporate implosions. November 2022 marked the downfall of FTX, as rumors of insolvency triggered massive sell-offs. The domino effect was brutal, as other crypto institutions, such as BlockFi, 3AC, Celsius, and Voyager Digital, also went under.

Bitcoin’s price tumbled from around $20,000 to $15,000, mirroring the broader market panic and leaving investors worried about Bitcoin’s survival. However, true to form, Bitcoin rallied again, climbing back up fivefold from the 2022 lows. Investors who weathered the storm were rewarded, and this rebound supports the argument that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature remains intact.

Similar Sentiment

In addition to price patterns, investor sentiment also follows a predictable rhythm across each cycle. Analyzing the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), a metric showing unrealized gains and losses in the market, suggests that emotions like euphoria, fear, and capitulation repeat regularly. Bitcoin investors typically face intense feelings of fear or pessimism during each bear market, only to shift back toward optimism and euphoria as prices recover and rise. Currently, we’re once again entering the ‘Belief’ stage following our early cycle runup and subsequent consolidation.

The Global Liquidity Cycle

The global money supply and cyclical liquidity, as measured by Global M2 YoY vs BTC, has also followed a four-year cycle. For instance, M2 liquidity bottomed out in 2015 and 2018, just as Bitcoin hit lows. In 2022, M2 again hit a low point, perfectly aligning with Bitcoin’s bear market bottom. Following these periods of economic contraction, we see fiscal expansion across central banks and governments everywhere, which leads to more favorable conditions for Bitcoin price appreciation.

Familiar Patterns

Historical price analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s current trajectory is strikingly similar to previous cycles. From its lows, Bitcoin usually takes around 24-26 months to break past previous highs. In the last cycle, it took 26 months; in this cycle, Bitcoin’s price is on a similar upward trajectory after 24 months. Bitcoin has historically peaked about 35 months after its lows. If this pattern holds, we may see significant price increases through October 2025, after which another bear market could set in.

Following the anticipated peak, history suggests Bitcoin would enter a bear phase in 2026, lasting roughly one year until the next cycle begins anew. These patterns aren’t a guarantee but provide a roadmap that Bitcoin has adhered to in previous cycles. They offer a potential framework for investors to anticipate and adapt to the market.

Conclusion

Despite challenges, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has endured, largely due to its supply schedule, global liquidity, and investor psychology. As such, the four-year cycle remains a valuable tool for investors to interpret potential price movements in Bitcoin and our base case for the rest of this cycle. However, relying solely on this cycle could be shortsighted. By incorporating on-chain metrics, liquidity analysis, and real-time investor sentiment, data-driven approaches can help investors respond effectively to changing conditions.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The 4 Year Bitcoin Cycle – Half Way Done?

Dive into the full October 2024 Bitcoin Report for the latest insights and analysis. Click here to read the full report: Read the Report

The October 2024 edition of The Bitcoin Report is packed with expert insights and bullish price forecasts as Bitcoin continues to carve its place as the leading decentralized digital asset. This month, we focus on several key topics: Bitcoin’s decreasing exchange balances, ETF inflows surging past $5 billion, and bullish price targets that could redefine Bitcoin’s value over the next quarter. Featured contributions come from some of the biggest names in the Bitcoin space, including Caitlin Long, who provides an industry insight into Bitcoin’s adoption cycle, and Tone Vays, whose exclusive price forecast gives reasons for optimism as Bitcoin heads toward potential new highs.

Report Highlights:

• Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: This section examines how decreasing exchange balances and growing self-custody reflect an increase in long-term holding sentiment. With Bitcoin exchange balances hitting new lows, it signals rising confidence among investors that are choosing to take control of their own assets rather than leave them on exchanges.

• Bitcoin ETFs: October saw over $5.4 billion in inflows to Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the market. This record-setting month underscores the growing acceptance of Bitcoin in mainstream financial markets, bolstered by the approval of options trading on Bitcoin ETFs. Dr. Michael Tabone, Economist & Professor at the University of the Cumberlands, provides his take on how this surge could play out in the coming months.

• Bitcoin Mining Update: Russia and China have quietly expanded their influence in global mining, with the US still holding the largest hashrate share. Lukas Pfeiffer of Crypto Oxygen elaborates on how these shifts may reshape global mining dynamics and what it means for the future.

• Price Forecast by Tone Vays: Bitcoin analyst Tone Vays remains incredibly optimistic about Bitcoin’s future price, citing multiple technical indicators and historical patterns. The report details potential price targets ranging from $102,000 to $140,000 by mid-2025, supported by bullish technical analysis such as Fibonacci extensions and a classic cup and handle chart pattern.

• Industry Insights from Caitlin Long: Caitlin Long, Founder & CEO of Custodia Bank, provides her perspective on Bitcoin’s adoption trends and how the broader economic climate continues to favor decentralized assets. According to Long, Bitcoin’s fundamentals are strong, and a bull market could be on the horizon following the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

The report also contains valuable contributions from other experts in the Bitcoin ecosystem, including Philip Swift on Bitcoin derivatives, Lucas Betschart on regulatory changes, Pete Rizzo on Bitcoin history, Pascal Hügli with on-chain analysis, Dr. Michael Tabone on Bitcoin stocks and ETFs, Joël Kai Lenz on Bitcoin adoption, and Patrick Heusser on technical analysis. These contributions provide a well-rounded look at Bitcoin’s current state and its future potential.

Get the full insights, charts, and analysis by accessing the complete report now. We invite your organization to explore potential sponsorship or joint-publication opportunities for future editions by reaching out to Mark Mason at mark.mason@btcmedia.org. Let’s orange-pill the world together!

Download and Share: This report is freely available to all. Download, share, and help drive the conversation on Bitcoin adoption and education. Use the hashtag #TheBitcoinReport in your posts to join the movement.