Crypto markets are experiencing a modest move to the upside following today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, in which the U.S. central bank left interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 4.5% in the last 24 hours and is now trading for $85,500, its highest point since March 9.

The CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization except for stablecoins, memecoins and exchange coins — is up 6%. Ether (ETH) and solana (SOL) have both surged by 7%, while Ripple’s XRP token has risen 10% off the back of CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s announcement that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is planning to drop its case against the company.

Crypto stocks are also doing relatively well, especially bitcoin mining companies like Bitdeer (BTDR) and Core Scientific (CORZ), which are up 10% and 8% on the day, respectively. Bitdeer is likely buoyed from the technological progress it recently made in its ASIC manufacturing process, as well as from the news that stablecoin giant Tether was increasing its stake in the company to 21%.

Core Scientific, meanwhile, is potentially reaping the benefits of AI firm CoreWeave (Core Scientific’s main customer) filing for an initial public offering earlier in the month. Even so, both companies are down more than 61% and 53% since January and November respectively.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that tariff-related inflation was likely to be transitory and that recession risks remained low. And despite the market reacting positively to the meeting — Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones all gained 1% or more — market commentators weren’t necessarily convinced.

“The word — ‘transitory’ — is back at the Federal Reserve as Chair Powell characterizes the price effects of tariffs as a one-off,” economist Mohamed A. El-Erian posted on X. “I would have thought that, particularly after the big policy mistake of earlier this decade and given all the current uncertainties, some Fed officials would show greater humility. It’s simply too early to say with any regress of confidence that the inflationary effects will be transitory.”

Gold continued to rise after surpassing the $3,000 mark on Tuesday and today hit a new record above $3,050. Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, said that the U.S. central bank was signaling that any additional rate cuts would likely happen at the cost of battering stocks. “The Fed is no longer comfortable gliding to neutral as we get closer to their inflation target. I think you can argue that the soft landing is over,” she posted.

Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving, and its once-predictable four-year cycles may no longer hold the same relevance. In a recent conversation with Matt Crosby, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Mitchell Askew, Head Analyst at Blockware Solutions, shared his perspective on how Bitcoin ETFs, mining advancements, and institutional adoption are reshaping the asset’s price behavior.

Watch the Full Interview:

According to Askew, Bitcoin’s historical pattern of parabolic price increases followed by steep drawdowns is changing as institutional investors enter the market. At the same time, the mining industry is becoming more efficient and stable, creating new dynamics that affect Bitcoin’s supply and price trends.

Bitcoin’s Market Cycles Are Fading

Askew suggests that Bitcoin may no longer experience the extreme cycles of past bull and bear markets. Historically, halving events reduced miner rewards, triggered supply shocks, and fueled rapid price increases, often followed by corrections of 70% or more. However, the increasing presence of institutional investors is leading to a more structured, macro-driven market.

He explains that Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations are bringing consistent demand into Bitcoin, reducing the likelihood of extreme boom-and-bust price movements. Unlike retail traders, who tend to buy in euphoria and panic-sell during downturns, institutions are more likely to sell into strength and accumulate Bitcoin on dips.

Askew also notes that since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, price movements have become more measured, with longer consolidation periods before continued growth. This suggests Bitcoin is beginning to behave more like a traditional financial asset, rather than a speculative high-volatility market.

The Role of Bitcoin Mining in Price Stability

As a mining analyst at Blockware Solutions, Askew provides insight into how Bitcoin mining dynamics influence price trends. He notes that while many assume a rising hash rate is always bullish, the reality is more complex.

In the short term, increasing hash rate can be bearish, as it leads to higher competition among miners and more Bitcoin being sold to cover electricity costs. However, over the long term, a rising hash rate reflects greater investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and network security.

Another key observation from Askew is that Bitcoin’s hash rate growth lags behind price growth by 3-12 months. When Bitcoin’s price rises sharply, mining profitability increases, prompting more capital to flow into mining infrastructure. However, deploying new mining rigs and setting up facilities takes time, leading to a delayed impact on hash rate expansion.

Why Mining Profitability Is Stabilizing

Askew also highlights that mining hardware efficiency is reaching a plateau, which has significant implications for miners and Bitcoin’s supply structure.

In Bitcoin’s early years, new mining machines offered dramatic efficiency improvements, forcing miners to upgrade hardware every 1-2 years to remain competitive. Today, however, new models are only about 10% more efficient than the previous generation. As a result, mining rigs can now remain profitable for 4-8 years, reducing the pressure on miners to continuously reinvest in new equipment.

Electricity costs remain the biggest factor in mining profitability, and Askew explains that miners are increasingly seeking low-cost power sources to maintain long-term sustainability. Many companies, including Blockware Solutions, operate in rural U.S. locations with stable energy prices, ensuring better profitability even during market downturns.

Could the U.S. Government Start Accumulating Bitcoin?

Another important discussion point raised by Askew is the potential for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Some policymakers have proposed that the U.S. government accumulate Bitcoin in the same way it holds gold reserves, recognizing its potential as a global store of value.

Askew explains that if such a reserve were implemented, it could create a massive supply shock, pushing Bitcoin’s price significantly higher. However, he cautions that government action is slow and would likely involve gradual accumulation rather than sudden large-scale purchases.

Even if implemented over several years, such a program could further reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trajectory by removing available supply from the market.

Bitcoin Price Predictions & Long-Term Outlook

Based on current trends, Askew remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory, though he believes the market’s behavior is shifting toward more gradual, sustained growth rather than extreme speculative cycles.

Bitcoin Price Targets for 2025:

• Base Case: $150K – $200K
• Bull Case: $250K+

Long-Term (10-Year) Forecast:

• Base Case: $500K – $1M
• Bull Case: Bitcoin flips gold’s $20T market cap → $1M+ per BTC

Askew sees several key factors driving Bitcoin’s price over the next decade, including:
Steady institutional demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries.
Reduced mining hardware upgrades, leading to a more stable industry.
Potential government involvement in Bitcoin reserves.
Macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates, inflation, and global liquidity cycles.

He emphasizes that as Bitcoin’s market structure matures, it may become less susceptible to sharp price swings, making it a more attractive long-term asset for institutions.

Conclusion: A More Mature Bitcoin Market

According to Askew, Bitcoin is undergoing a structural shift that will shape its price trends for years to come. With institutional investors reducing market volatility, mining innovations improving efficiency, and potential government adoption, Bitcoin’s market behavior is beginning to resemble that of gold or other long-term financial assets.

While dramatic parabolic runs may become less frequent, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory appears stronger and more sustainable than ever. Askew’s perspective reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset—it is evolving into a key financial instrument with increasing global adoption.

If you’re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.