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US dollar plunge powers Bitcoin bull case, but other metrics concern: Analyst
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A weakening US dollar could be bullish for Bitcoin, but two metrics could be cause for concern in the short term, according to Real Vision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts.
“While my framework is turning bullish as the dollar plunges, two metrics still raise alarms: Treasury Bond volatility (MOVE Index) and Corporate Bond spreads,” said Coutts in a March 9 post on X.
The analyst framed Bitcoin as a “game of chicken” with central banks, presenting a “cautiously bullish” outlook despite these concerning metrics.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined to a four-month low of 103.85 on March 10, according to Market Watch. DXY is an index of the value of the greenback relative to a basket of other currencies.
Coutts explained that US Treasuries function as global collateral and increased Treasury volatility forces collateral haircuts, tightening liquidity.
The MOVE Index, which is a measure of expected volatility in the US Treasury bond market, is currently stable but climbing, he observed.
MOVE Index and US dollar Index. Source: Jamie Coutts
“With the dollar’s rapid decline in March, one might expect volatility to compress, or if it doesn’t, for the dollar to reverse,” which is bearish, he said.
Heightened Treasury volatility can lead to tighter liquidity conditions, which could potentially force central banks to intervene in ways that might ultimately benefit Bitcoin, he suggested.
Meanwhile, corporate bond spreads have been widening consistently over three weeks, and major corporate bond spread reversals have historically coincided with Bitcoin price tops, Coutts said.
Coutts concluded that, overall, these metrics paint a negative picture for Bitcoin. “Still, the dollar’s depreciation— one of the largest in 12 years this month — remains the primary driver in my framework,” he added.
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On March 6, Bravos Research said that a declining DXY “could be a major tailwind for risk-on assets,” such as stocks and crypto.
Coutts also identified other bullish factors, including a global race for strategic Bitcoin reserves or accumulation via mining, Michael Saylor’s Strategy adding another 100,000 to 200,000 coins to its BTC treasury this year, a potential doubling of spot ETF positions, and increased liquidity.
“Think of Bitcoin as a high-stakes game of chicken with the central planners. With their options dwindling — and assuming HODLers remain unleveraged— the odds are increasingly in the Bitcoin owner’s favor.”
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What is Milady? The Edgy Ethereum NFT Community With Vitalik Buterin’s Support Can Pi Network Price Triple if Binance Listing is Approved Before March 2025 Ends? Gold ETFs Inflow Takes Over BTC ETFs Amid Historic Rally Toncoin in ‘great entry zone’ as Pavel Durov’s France exit fuels TON price rally XRP $15 Breakout? Not A Far-Fetched Idea—Analysis Here’s why the Toncoin price surge may be short-lived Published on By Toncoin (TON) has surged by over 50% in the past week, fueled by news that Telegram founder Pavel Durov has been granted permission to leave France for Dubai. TON/USDT weekly price chart. Source: TradingView TON’s bullish reversal, especially after falling to $2.35, its lowest level in a year, has traders eyeing key price levels, with crypto analyst Crypto Patel highlighting a “great entry zone” for long-term investors. As Crypto Patel notes, TON’s price has “perfectly bounced” from its support level of around $2.50. Furthermore, the support falls inside the $2.40-3.00 area that served as resistance in December 2022-April 2023 and September 2023-April 2024 periods. The analyst argues that the area now served as a “great entry zone,” citing TON’s ongoing rebound from the same range. TON/USDT weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Crypto Patel A decisive rebound from the $2.40-3.00 zone could have TON target its prevailing descending trendline resistance in the coming weeks, which may push its price toward $5 by June or July. Related: Wallet in Telegram to list 50 tokens and launch yield program The upside outlook aligns with analyst Profit Mind’s falling wedge setup, which anticipates the Toncoin price to grow toward the $6 upside target if it breaks above the wedge’s upper trendline. TON/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView Falling wedges typically resolve when the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the pattern’s maximum height. Analyst Crypto Billion further anticipates a bullish reversal in TON markets, citing its oversold relative strength index (RSI) as a primary catalyst for potential long-term accumulation. Source: Crypto Billion Toncoin’s Sharpe ratio, a financial metric used to measure an asset’s risk-adjusted returns, further indicates oversold conditions in the TON market. As of March 16, the 180-day average ratio had dropped below -25, as denoted in blue. In the past, TON has undergone bullish reversals largely when its Sharpe ratio turned blue, as seen in late 2022 and mid-2023. TON Sharpe ratio (180 days). Source: CryptoQuant In the derivatives market, Toncoin is witnessing a resurgence in its open interest (OI) — a metric tracking the total number of unsettled TON contracts such as options and futures. As of March 16, TON’s OI was around $169.12 million, compared to $80.75 million just five days prior. TON Futures’ OI and funding rates. Source: CoinGlass On the flip side, TON’s weekly funding rates are treading around negative territory — they marginally rose into positive territory after plunging to -0.678% earlier on March 16. When funding rates turn negative as OI rises, it often reflects bearish sentiment with aggressive shorting. The 30-day liquidation map tracking TON/USDT on Bybit risks nearly $10 million in long liquidations if the Toncoin price falls toward $2.54. Bybit TON/USDT 30-day liquidation map (as of March 16). Source: Coinglass Conversely, the same liquidation map reveals that approximately $12 million worth of short positions could be at risk if TON surpasses the $4 mark. If this scenario plays out, the cascading effect of forced buybacks could accelerate Toncoin’s upward momentum, sending the price to the aforementioned levels. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. Published on By Toncoin Open Interest (OI) has jumped 67% over the past 24 hours following Telegram founder Pavel Durov’s reported departure from France, where he had been required to stay since his arrest six months ago. On March 15, Toncoin (TON) OI — a metric tracking the total number of unsettled Toncoin derivative contracts such as options and futures — reached $169 million, representing a 67% increase from the previous day when the reports of Durov’s departure first surfaced, according to CoinGlass data. It is the highest level of OI in Toncoin since Feb. 1, when it was sitting at $171.49 million. TON is The Open Network’s native cryptocurrency and is the exclusive blockchain infrastructure for Telegram’s Mini App ecosystem. Toncoin open interest surged 67% on March 15. Source: CoinGlass TON’s price jumped 17% over the same period, trading at $3.45 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data. Trading resource account Crypto Billion said in a March 15 X post that Toncoin is “showing signs of a potential long-term accumulation phase as it stabilizes near key support levels.” However, if this rally is short-lived, around $18.8 million in long positions could be liquidated if TON’s price falls back toward the $3 level it was trading at on March 14. The court reportedly allowed Durov to travel to Dubai, a city with no extradition agreements with many countries. The market’s reaction signals how significant this case is to the crypto industry. Many are worried that Durov’s arrest in August 2024 in France could set a precedent for cracking down on other privacy-focused services. He was accused of running a platform that enables illicit transactions. Related: Bitget predicts TON ‘de-Telegramization’ in the next 2 year Similarly, when Durov was arrested in August 2024, TON’s OI also surged. Following the news of Durov’s arrest on Aug. 24, 2024, TON’s OI spiked 32% over the following 24 hours, alongside its price falling almost 12%. On Jan. 21, Telegram announced it would cease support for all blockchains other than The Open Network for its messenger services. Magazine: Vitalik on AI apocalypse, LA Times both-sides KKK, LLM grooming: AI Eye Published on By Kaito AI, an artificial intelligence-powered platform that aggregates crypto data to provide market analysis for users, and its founder Yu Hu, were the victims of an X social media hack on March 15. In several now-deleted posts, hackers claimed that the Kaito wallets were compromised and advised users that their funds were not safe. According to DeFi Warhol, the hackers opened up a short position on KAITO tokens before posting the messages in the hopes that users would sell or pull their funds, which would have crashed the price and created profits for the threat actors. The price of the KAITO token dips, presumably due to a short position. Source: CoinMarketCap The Kaito AI team regained access to the accounts and reassured users that Kaito token wallets were not compromised in the social media exploit. “We had high-standard security measures in place to prevent [the hack] — so it seems to be similar or the same as other recent Twitter account hacks,” the Kaito AI team added. This recent exploit is the latest in a growing list of social media hacks, social engineering scams, and cybersecurity incidents plaguing the crypto industry. Source: Kaito AI Related: Kaito AI token defies influencer selling pressure with 50% price rally Pump.fun’s X account was hacked on Feb. 26 by a threat actor promoting several fake tokens, including a fraudulent governance token for the fair launch platform called “Pump.” According to onchain sleuth ZackXBT, the Pump.fun incident was directly connected to the Jupiter DAO account hack and the DogWifCoin X account compromise. On March 7, The Alberta Securities Commission, a Canadian financial regulator, warned the public that malicious actors were using fake news articles and fake endorsements featuring the likeness of Canadian politicians to promote a crypto scam. The scam, known as CanCap, played on fears of a trade war between Canada and the US to lure unsuspecting victims into investing in the project, which the scammers claimed had the support of Canadian leader Justin Trudeau. An example of a Lazarus social engineering scam where the hackers pretend to be venture capitalists experiencing audio-visual issues. Source: Nick Bax Crypto executives are also sounding the alarm on a new scam from the state-sponsored Lazarus hacker group, where the hackers pose as venture capitalists in a Zoom meeting. Once the target is in the meeting room, the hackers would claim they were experiencing audio-visual issues and redirect the victim to a malicious chat room where the user is encouraged to download a patch. The patch contains malicious software designed to steal crypto private keys and other sensitive information from the victim’s computer. 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